on3's MLB 2025 Opening Day System

[daneault23]

FYI Cubs Regular A and Filtered A starting in about 25 minutes.

[J.M. Disciple]

I know it's not the same system, but I went through this season and tested the 1-strike labby approach using money line on all the -200 or higher favorites using pinnacle closing lines. I know a lot of people want to avoid the juice, but these are amazing results. I used $10 as the unit size instead of $20 being we are betting on heavy juice games. It was remarkably consistent with a 72-20 record and +42.8 unit profit.

Biggest bet May 3rd SF (-282) $118.44 to win $42.00.

Those that want to play RL -1.5 there were 19 games where the favorite only won by 1 run. Record would be 53-39 on the -1.5 RL. No idea what the variance looks like on that.

I think 1 strike method is the way of the future for these systems. I'm not posting this or running a thread on this any where. To each their own if you want to run it go ahead. Just thought I might be able to help someone make a little bit more money on the side.

Keep up the great work grecycle99 Appreciate the consistent posting.

Uploaded the excel file if anyone wants to see the individual numbers.

Edit*
I rounded bets to the nearest $1 (to win amount) and reset the line if I reached peak profit. If the line was heavy like 6u / 2 for 3units a game, but there were 4 games the next day, I just changed the line to 6u / 4 for 1.5u per game. Not adding additional money to the line if there are not enough numbers on the line. Just average out the line over the # of games for that day.

[J.M. Disciple]

Big win for you guys indeed given they are on 3 separate systems. Might want to consider using a separate labby line for the filtered system. Being 11-0 or 12-0 now on the filtered system and being up 16-20 units is something...

I got lucky on the B bet, where I bet them early when the line was still above -200, so I had the RL and didn't lose much. My C-bet today was only 1.5 units.

Well done.

[grecycle99]

Big win for us and the Reds today

Yes, it keeps the trolls out lolll, nice win!

[daneault23]

Big win for us and the Reds today

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 05/15/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 53-2; Profit: 27.55 units
Filtered System: 11-0; Profit: 16.16 units
5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

Total (3 systems) : 68-2; Profit: 60.71 unit (Series chase lost : Regular : Tampa Bay -18.22U, Detroit -5.12U)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 36-19; 7-4; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 11-8; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-2; 1-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 7 * 43.29
(B)
(C) 4 * 43.29

REGULAR FOR 05/15/2025

(C) Cincinnati RL -116 to win 4.33U

Filtered

(C) Cincinnati RL -116 to win 4.33U

5/2

(B) Cincinnati RL -116 to win 11.3U

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 05/14/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 53-2; Profit: 27.55 units
Filtered System: 11-0; Profit: 16.16 units
5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

Total (3 systems) : 68-2; Profit: 60.71 unit (Series chase lost : Regular : Tampa Bay -18.22U, Detroit -5.12U)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 36-19; 7-4; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 11-8; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-2; 1-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 5 * 28.93
(B) 10 * 28.93
(C)

REGULAR FOR 05/14/2025

(B) Cincinnati -186 to win 2.90U
(B) LA Dodgers RL -139 to win 2.90U
(B) Philadelphia -176 to win 2.90U

Filtered

(B) Cincinnati -186 to win 2.90U
(B) LA Dodgers RL -139 to win 2.90U

5/2

(A) Cincinnati -186 to win 5U
(A) LA Dodgers RL -139 to win 5U

[daneault23]

Philly Regular B bet coming up in 20 minutes FYI as Game #1 of a doubleheader.

[J.M. Disciple]

Philly is tomorrow

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 05/13/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 53-2; Profit: 27.55 units
Filtered System: 11-0; Profit: 16.16 units
5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

Total (3 systems) : 68-2; Profit: 60.71 unit (Series chase lost : Regular : Tampa Bay -18.22U, Detroit -5.12U)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 36-19; 7-4; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 11-8; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-2; 1-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 9 * 19.10
(B) 6 * 19.10
(C)

REGULAR FOR 05/13/2025

(A) Cincinnati RL -104 to win 1.91U
(A) LA Dodgers -189 to win 1.91U
(B) Philadelphia PPD to win 1.91U
(B) San Diego RL -103 to win 1.91U
(B) Texas RL -103 to win 1.91U

Filtered

(A) Cincinnati RL -104 to win 1.91U
(A) LA Dodgers -189 to win 1.91U

5/2

No Play

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 05/12/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 53-2; Profit: 27.55 units
Filtered System: 11-0; Profit: 16.16 units
5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

Total (3 systems) : 68-2; Profit: 60.71 unit (Series chase lost : Regular : Tampa Bay -18.22U, Detroit -5.12U)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 36-19; 7-4; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 11-8; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-2; 1-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 14 * 15.18
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 05/12/2025

(A) Atlanta -182 to win 1.52U
(A) Chicago Cubs RL -123 to win 1.52U
(A) NY Mets -159 to win 1.52U
(A) Philadelphia -169 to win 1.52U
(A) San Diego RL -112 to win 1.52U
(A) Texas RL -130 to win 1.52U

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[daneault23]

Had a bad feeling about the Tigers series when I saw they were going to face DeGrom and Eovaldi in the B/C bets. Oh well - onto the next set of series. GL to us the rest of the way, at least that series wasn't too big of a loss since B/C were pretty even odds.

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 05/11/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 52-1; Profit: 31.67 units
Filtered System: 11-0; Profit: 16.16 units
5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

Total (3 systems) : 67-1; Profit: 64.83 unit (Series chase lost : Tampa Bay -18.22U)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 35-18; 7-4; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 11-7; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-1; 1-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 2 * 19.71
(B)
(C) 2 * 19.71

REGULAR FOR 05/11/2025

(C) Detroit -110 to win 1.98U

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[grecycle99]

I forgot if they are the dog do we play the +1.5? I had it available on my book when they were like -107 ML.

you play them on ml

[J.M. Disciple]

Looks like we can get Tigers at + money now before first pitch

I forgot if they are the dog do we play the +1.5? I had it available on my book when they were like -107 ML.

[daneault23]

Looks like we can get Tigers at + money now before first pitch

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 05/10/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 52-1; Profit: 31.67 units
Filtered System: 11-0; Profit: 16.16 units
5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

Total (3 systems) : 67-1; Profit: 64.83 unit (Series chase lost : Tampa Bay -18.22U)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 35-18; 7-4; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 11-7; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-1; 1-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 1 * 15.74
(B) 2 * 15.74
(C)

REGULAR FOR 05/10/2025

(B) Detroit +115 to win 1.58U

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[Deenoz]

Don't forget that I use pinnacle for the plays! SEA line never went higher than -142! Even if they are over -145 on other sites they only become a play on pinnacle!

yep, forgot that you only use Pinnacle.

[grecycle99]

should Mariners be on the watch list? they are -152

Don't forget that I use pinnacle for the plays! SEA line never went higher than -142! Even if they are over -145 on other sites they only become a play on pinnacle!

[grecycle99]

should Mariners be on the watch list? they are -152

I placed them earlier on the watch list but they are still only -140

[Deenoz]

should Mariners be on the watch list? they are -152

[daneault23]

Good luck on all the plays this weekend - and Happy Mother's (single Father's) Day to all!

Quick question - are we changing up the date formats now

UPDATED for 05/01/2025
UPDATED for 05/02/2025
UPDATED for 05/03/2025
UPDATED for 05/05/2025
UPDATED for 06/05/2025
UPDATED for 07/05/2025
UPDATED for 09/05/2025

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 05/09/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 52-1; Profit: 31.67 units
Filtered System: 11-0; Profit: 16.16 units
5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

Total (3 systems) : 67-1; Profit: 64.83 unit (Series chase lost : Tampa Bay -18.22U)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 35-18; 7-4; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 11-7; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-1; 1-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 4 * 10.00
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 05/09/2025

(A) Detroit RL -136 to win 1U
(A) Houston -186 to win 1U

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 07/05/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 52-1; Profit: 31.67 units
Filtered System: 11-0; Profit: 16.16 units
5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

Total (3 systems) : 67-1; Profit: 64.83 unit (Series chase lost : Tampa Bay -18.22U)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 35-18; 7-4; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 11-7; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-1; 1-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 4 * 10.00
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 07/05/2025

No Play

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[J.M. Disciple]

I posted the spread sheet of this season with the scores of each game. Why do you take a look at how many games won by 1 run vs 2+. Run the math and see what comes out on top. This system has a 15 year back test. Going to trust the data over someone's opinion.

Incase anyone was wondering I counted 15 games where the favorite won by exactly 1 win. 10 of those games the system had money line instead of run line. So betting the -1.5 would result in 10 additional losses. I don't know the math on it, but for a system to have 48 wins and it would only be 38 wins of 73 (52%) on the run line. Doesn't seem very profitable. The labby line would take a lot longer to clear trying to avoid the juice. A 38-35 record flat betting the RL isn't going to show as much profit. These are the 10 games I found where ML won and RL would have lost. There are no short cuts in making money. We just have to embrace the variance of the juice.

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 06/05/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 48-1; Profit: 28.52 units
Filtered System: 10-0; Profit: 14.79 units
5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

Total (3 systems) : 62-1; Profit: 60.31 unit (Series chase lost : Tampa Bay -18.22U)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 32-17; 6-4; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 10-7; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-1; 1-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 4 * 13.64
(B) 2 * 13.64
(C)

REGULAR FOR 06/05/2025

(A) Minnesota -165 to win 1.37U
(B) NY Yankees -119 to win 1.37U

Filtered

(A) Minnesota -165 to win 1.37U

5/2

No Play

[J.M. Disciple]

Sheeit! I am actually quite sure that you would have more CRUMBS betting those high chalkers on the RL only each time in the long run over the course of a season. I have been doing this since 1996. There's no way you can convince me that if you were to play these all on the RL and then PARLAY only the high chalkers with their ML's that you wouldn't clear more units with less risk money put out. In some cases you can see progressive ML PARLAYS on some of these because you can see a team around 2:00 PM for the ML's for both days. Like say the Bombers are -230 on Tuesday and also -300 on Wednesday, and then at the same time the Dodgers are -260 on Tuesday and -290 on Wednesday. Well you can bet teams on the RL at -110 odds both days and do a progressive ML parlay on them over the course of both days too to sweeten the pot. Anyway carry on. I have no business disturbing what y'all got going on over here

I posted the spread sheet of this season with the scores of each game. Why do you take a look at how many games won by 1 run vs 2+. Run the math and see what comes out on top. This system has a 15 year back test. Going to trust the data over someone's opinion.

[atthehalf]

Sheeit! I am actually quite sure that you would have more CRUMBS betting those high chalkers on the RL only each time in the long run over the course of a season. I have been doing this since 1996. There's no way you can convince me that if you were to play these all on the RL and then PARLAY only the high chalkers with their ML's that you wouldn't clear more units with less risk money put out. In some cases you can see progressive ML PARLAYS on some of these because you can see a team around 2:00 PM for the ML's for both days. Like say the Bombers are -230 on Tuesday and also -300 on Wednesday, and then at the same time the Dodgers are -260 on Tuesday and -290 on Wednesday. Well you can bet teams on the RL at -110 odds both days and do a progressive ML parlay on them over the course of both days too to sweeten the pot. Anyway carry on. I have no business disturbing what y'all got going on over here

[J.M. Disciple]

I think that JMD is correct in one thing-if the teams are such prohibitive favorites why not use the RL and get better odds? May cost a few in win % but it's always better to make bets at + odds more than - odds over the course of a season. Pus that way the losses are cleaner-in most cases just a clean unit instead of -275 and so on...

I only chose RL on -190 higher favorites. Sticking to the system the way it was back tested. The game I pointed out was still ML (-180) play 8 minutes before the first pitch. It's the only discrepancy in the system. Grecycle was correct on everything else. If they only won by 1 run I'm sure grecycle would have added a B game.

[grecycle99]

Hey grecycle, what about the Cardinals?

They are -127

[Deenoz]

Hey grecycle, what about the Cardinals?

[grecycle99]

UPDATED for 05/05/2025

System(s) record Chase :

Regular system: 48-1; Profit: 28.52 units
Filtered System: 10-0; Profit: 14.79 units
5/2 chase: 4-0; profit: 17 units

Total (3 systems) : 62-1; Profit: 60.31 unit (Series chase lost : Tampa Bay -18.22U)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)

Game 1 (A) win = 32-17; 6-4; 3-1
Game 2 (B) win = 10-7; 3-1; 1-0
Game 3 (C) win = 6-1; 1-0

Labby Line (20$ = 1unit)
(A) 6 * 10
(B)
(C)

REGULAR FOR 05/05/2025

(A) Chicago Cubs -169 to win 1U
(A) Kansas City RL -101 to win 1U
(A) NY Yankees -159 to win 1U

Filtered

No Play

5/2

No Play

[grecycle99]

I think that JMD is correct in one thing-if the teams are such prohibitive favorites why not use the RL and get better odds? May cost a few in win % but it's always better to make bets at + odds more than - odds over the course of a season. Pus that way the losses are cleaner-in most cases just a clean unit instead of -275 and so on...

We already are using the RL for odds -190 and greater

[grecycle99]

grecycle99 I only found one error checking the pinnacle lines on April 18th listed Mil at -180 ML but it's -192 closing line. But it was like a minute before the game that it jumped 12 points.



REGULAR FOR 04/18/2025

(A) Atlanta -146 to win 1U
(A) Baltimore -162 to win 1U
(A) Boston RL -105 to win 1U
(A) Houston -159 to win 1U
(A) Milwaukee -180 to win 1U
(A) Philadelphia RL -103 to win 1U

I didn't went back and change all the lines to the closing lines. I would have changed it at the time if MIL would had lost but they won by 2 thats why I didn't change it. But from now on, the lines will updated to the closing line. Thanks

[atthehalf]

I think that JMD is correct in one thing-if the teams are such prohibitive favorites why not use the RL and get better odds? May cost a few in win % but it's always better to make bets at + odds more than - odds over the course of a season. Pus that way the losses are cleaner-in most cases just a clean unit instead of -275 and so on...