[Nomadik]

A LOT of "experts" and handicappers were playing the reverse card in Game 5's matchup between Shields and MadBum. Playing the reverse card, in that because the Giants and MadBum were relatively substantial favorites AND the public "seemed" to be hammering MadBum (especially because of all the hype, although well deserved, he's been getting this series). With basically the whole United States pulling for the Royals, a lot of people, so-called experts included, played the reverse card or to put it another way, the Big Game James "is Due" card. As any astute bettor knows, you never make a wager based on the sole fact that you think someone, something "IS DUE." It's the biggest no-no in sports wagering, casino gambling and the likes. Unfortunately, many fell into this betting fallacy's trap and jumped all over KC. We all saw how that turned out.

So now we have a similar situation in Game 6, where most are presuming it's a "LOCK" for Ventura and KC to win and force a game 7. I'm even expecting KC to win this game, and with a 75-80% confidence level. HOWEVERRRRR, this feels eerily similar to MadBum basically being given the automatic win for game 5. Madbum actually did win, and pitched an historic game to boot, but we have to be warned Ventura is still just a rookie and is nowhere near Madbum's league. It's known Ventura has trouble at times commanding that powerful fastball, and to be successful he has to almost always have some of his off speed stuff working to compliment that heater. If neither happen because he just gets too worked up on such a big stage and in such a HUGE game for KC, THIS could be the game where we see the resurgence of a veteran Peavy taking control early and the Giants hot bats building him a lead that KC just can't come back from. This is exactly what many believed we were going to see in game 5, the resurgence of Big Game James and the young Madbum having trouble early with command, ultimately leading to Shields pitching a gem into the late innings and Madbum getting unraveled early for 3-4 runs. So if Shields actually did pull the "reverse" as most bettors were predicting and when very late into the ball game with a lead, it's safe to say Herrera and Gang would have closed the game out and it would be the Royals heading home with the 3-2 lead.

So basically this is just a caveat for those bettors thinking along those similar lines that lead up to game 5. What people need to remember here, however, is that the variables are not at all the same when we compare the pitching matchups of Game 5 to Game 6. Peavy is a wily ol' veteran that just pitched in a WS last year w/ the Sox, albeit not that great, and Ventura is an excitable very young rookie pitching in the biggest game of his young career. I think there's much more of a chance that Peavy could pitch 5-6 quality innings and Ventura could fail to pitch well early than it was for Shields, who's fatigue was obvious, to out duel the young 25 yr old Madbum in game 5. Shields was obviously capable of pitching a great ball game and he did to a point, but Madbum is just in another league when the postseason arrives. I mean the eerily calm and composed Bumgarner is practically making a case for being one of baseball's best postseason/WS aces of ALL-TIME and there surely wasn't any sign of him slowing down going into game 5, and yes I know his postseason home vs away splits.

So long story short, and take it for what it's worth, but be careful listening to and applying the same pre Game 5 hype that led A LOT of bettors astray to this somewhat similar scenario in Game 6. It's apples and oranges and should be treated as such. It's not at all as similar as many would like to believe to the MadBum/Shields game 5 matchup.

[dalogester]

Tldr

[4seasons]

Royals blowing that 4-1 lead in game 4, and losing 11-4, may have destroyed their confidence I'm afraid. Since then, the team is playing like they got a dagger stuck in their hearts. Does KC even have 1 stolen base in the Series? The way SF has shut KC's offense down has just been brilliant, and so hats off to them. I agree with mostly what you wrote, and simply based on Peavy's experience from last year, that SF has a huge edge. KC has to rise to the occasion and play flawlessly to win, and if they do to force game 7, then I like their chances to close. If these teams are evenly matched (based on the Series odds anyway which was virtually a pick 'em), and if home field advantage means something, then KC better be fired up mad as hell from pitch 1 and ready to seize the moment. As easy as it looks for SF right now, and Peavy to reverse trend unlike Bum that repeated W's, KC can go up 5-0 on Peavy after 1 for all we know and never look back. Not really sure how KC will do it, just know how these teams have played all year and as pick 'em Series to boot, believe SF comes back to Earth and Royal's rip Peavy like a Champion is suppose to do when up against the ropes. Though am hoping KC fights 'em off, and doesn't go down without a fight losing 3 in a row, Giants are a proven opponent that will resist.

[eddycash]

its all setup, if u cant see that, ur blind.

[YouHave2outs]

no one is going to read the fkng write up, i didn't even get through the first thought.

it is a bad matchup for the Giants in game 6, but they might win who knows. just don't bet the game. and if the royals win, bet the giants in game 7.

this is not fkng rocket science.

wheres my btp week 8. update people.

[No coincidences]

A LOT of "experts" and handicappers were playing the reverse card in Game 5's matchup between Shields and MadBum. Playing the reverse card, in that because the Giants and MadBum were relatively substantial favorites AND the public "seemed" to be hammering MadBum (especially because of all the hype, although well deserved, he's been getting this series). With basically the whole United States pulling for the Royals, a lot of people, so-called experts included, played the reverse card or to put it another way, the Big Game James "is Due" card. As any astute bettor knows, you never make a wager based on the sole fact that you think someone, something "IS DUE." It's the biggest no-no in sports wagering, casino gambling and the likes. Unfortunately, many fell into this betting fallacy's trap and jumped all over KC. We all saw how that turned out.

So now we have a similar situation in Game 6, where most are presuming it's a "LOCK" for Ventura and KC to win and force a game 7. I'm even expecting KC to win this game, and with a 75-80% confidence level. HOWEVERRRRR, this feels eerily similar to MadBum basically being given the automatic win for game 5. Madbum actually did win, and pitched an historic game to boot, but we have to be warned Ventura is still just a rookie and is nowhere near Madbum's league. It's known Ventura has trouble at times commanding that powerful fastball, and to be successful he has to almost always have some of his off speed stuff working to compliment that heater. If neither happen because he just gets too worked up on such a big stage and in such a HUGE game for KC, THIS could be the game where we see the resurgence of a veteran Peavy taking control early and the Giants hot bats building him a lead that KC just can't come back from. This is exactly what many believed we were going to see in game 5, the resurgence of Big Game James and the young Madbum having trouble early with command, ultimately leading to Shields pitching a gem into the late innings and Madbum getting unraveled early for 3-4 runs. So if Shields actually did pull the "reverse" as most bettors were predicting and when very late into the ball game with a lead, it's safe to say Herrera and Gang would have closed the game out and it would be the Royals heading home with the 3-2 lead.

So basically this is just a caveat for those bettors thinking along those similar lines that lead up to game 5. What people need to remember here, however, is that the variables are not at all the same when we compare the pitching matchups of Game 5 to Game 6. Peavy is a wily ol' veteran that just pitched in a WS last year w/ the Sox, albeit not that great, and Ventura is an excitable very young rookie pitching in the biggest game of his young career. I think there's much more of a chance that Peavy could pitch 5-6 quality innings and Ventura could fail to pitch well early than it was for Shields, who's fatigue was obvious, to out duel the young 25 yr old Madbum in game 5. Shields was obviously capable of pitching a great ball game and he did to a point, but Madbum is just in another league when the postseason arrives. I mean the eerily calm and composed Bumgarner is practically making a case for being one of baseball's best postseason/WS aces of ALL-TIME and there surely wasn't any sign of him slowing down going into game 5, and yes I know his postseason home vs away splits.

So long story short, and take it for what it's worth, but be careful listening to and applying the same pre Game 5 hype that led A LOT of bettors astray to this somewhat similar scenario in Game 6. It's apples and oranges and should be treated as such. It's not at all as similar as many would like to believe to the MadBum/Shields game 5 matchup.