[abovepar]

Pitchers park, day game and both pitchers have had success lately.

Cardinals have hit 11 home runs this postseason but were last in the NL during the season. I think the ball stays in the park today.

Giants also manufacture runs and rely on good pitching. I also think both bullpens can be somewhat trusted. 3-2 game.
Thoughts?

[CollegeOverUnder]

I had a dream the Giants won this game 6-1 and all runs were scored in the first inning

[steady hustlin]

Day games are typically higher scoring, so that does not support your bet.

[abovepar]

I had a good run of day games go under. I didn't bet them all but the ones I did probably hit 70%. Definitely not a strong point. Just something I remember from the season.

[RollinDo]

I had a good run of day games go under. I didn't bet them all but the ones I did probably hit 70%. Definitely not a strong point. Just something I remember from the season.

Totally opposite for me...probably went about 35% on Under hits for day games and 55-60% on night games.
Unders are tough for day games during the week...at least this season.

[bluetooth3]

I also like the under. Which I hope isn't a bad side for us as I have been ice cold in the playoffs. But I feel that both lackey and Hudson will control the games and keep the ball down in the zone. Going to be in the 60s and feel the scoring will be hard to come by. Lackey was big at home against the Dodgers and Hudson on the road. Those guys won't be fazed by much. Let's look at reasons why it will go over and try to take it from there?

[bluetooth3]

Totally opposite for me...probably went about 35% on Under hits for day games and 55-60% on night games.
Unders are tough for day games during the week...at least this season.

Playoffs just seen a bit different than getaway games. Consistent line up. Better pitching. Less big run innings. Giants have been 2-5 against the over and cards 2-5 against the over this post season. This game was also moved from 5 to 1 because of the KC rain, maybe a factor

[steady hustlin]

Lackey constantly gets himself into jams, he's one of the luckiest pitchers I can remember in terms of getting out of them. Hudson has been shakey at times and will certainly have a short leash, but he won't put up the same performance that he did against the Nationals. That team couldn't hit the ball.

[RollinDo]

I also like the under. Which I hope isn't a bad side for us as I have been ice cold in the playoffs. But I feel that both lackey and Hudson will control the games and keep the ball down in the zone. Going to be in the 60s and feel the scoring will be hard to come by. Lackey was big at home against the Dodgers and Hudson on the road. Those guys won't be fazed by much. Let's look at reasons why it will go over and try to take it from there?

Sounds good...
I am leaning Under, but like Gm 4 Under a bit better (Miller vs Vogelsong).
Reasons for supporting Over (Gm 3):
Brisk wind out to left at 15 mph
2 starters who are average day pitchers.
Hudson has been bad in 5 of last 6 starts.
Lackey 4.73 ERA on road
Hudson career vs StL (5.26 ERA; .300 BA)

[abovepar]

Thanks guys. I havnt placed a wager yet. This is the feedback I hoped for.

[stevenash]

Lackey came over to the NL at the trading deadline.
Made 10 starts for Cards, 11 if you include the playoff game versus Dodgers.
In those 11 starts, games in which Lackey started over/under record is 5-5-1.
Last 4 including the playoff games went comfortably under.

Lackey is a two pitch pitcher, mainly relies on a 4 seam fastball, his other pitch is a sinker.
He should have an easy enough time with the bottom half of the SF order, Pence and Posey may hurt him, if he leaves one over the plate for Panda, he can hurt him too.

There is not much of a past BvP to go to, Lackey and the Giants dugout virtually have no past.
Rosenthall in the BP is pretty much automatic.

Tim Hudson had an ordinary year
9-13 3.54 ERA 1.23 WH/IP (not that bad)
Holliday is 9 for 26 off Hudson lifetime, not fooled by the 40 year old.
I would bet the Holliday hit prop - but he has no problem taking a walk.
Molina owns Hudson too, but he's out, his replacement AJP has hit Timmy in the past.

If you like the under this might be a better bet

Tue 10/14		1005 St. Louis Cardinals H+R+E			o24½ -110
4:00PM		1006 San Francisco Giants H+R+E			u24½ -110

Tue 10/14		961 St. Louis Cardinals J Lackey - R	+1½ -190	+119	o7 +100
4:05PM		962 San Francisco Giants T Hudson - R	-1½ +175	-124	u7 -110

Under is juiced on the reduced juice line at -110.
Last thing you want to see is a 3-3 game in the 8th inning.

Total is razor sharp, total dart throw.

Here's a tip - both pitchers will not finish what they start.
I would start breaking down all the possible bullpen possibilities.
I'm a nice guy, I would do it, but I got things to do.

Don't overlook the bullpens.

Best of luck

[44 Mag]

I had a dream the Giants won this game 6-1 and all runs were scored in the first inning

Keep dreaming.

[RollinDo]

Thanks guys. I havnt placed a wager yet. This is the feedback I hoped for.

I guess I do not feel strongly about the Under.
I wish you the best if you play it...I may regret not playing it, but I don't want to just play every Under for the sake of it...my lean is not justified by anything other than Lackey is a very good post-season pitcher and Hudson pitched well in his last start.

[abovepar]

Hudson did pitch 7 shut out innings against cards earlier in the year.
Lackey has 2.45 era in last 5 post season starts.

Cards and giants both have averaged 2.6 runs the last 5 games. 3-2?

Could easily see a 3-3 game late.. I also have a parlay from last night that pays $550 and Balt as the last leg. I bet before the rain delay. Not sure if I want to hedge. May take something live if I feel nervous.

[RollinDo]

Hudson did pitch 7 shut out innings against cards earlier in the year.
Lackey has 2.45 era in last 5 post season starts.

Cards and giants both have averaged 2.6 runs the last 5 games. 3-2?

Could easily see a 3-3 game late.. I also have a parlay from last night that pays $550 and Balt as the last leg. I bet before the rain delay. Not sure if I want to hedge. May take something live if I feel nervous.

Wow. I feel very nervous if you've got O's.
I am playing KC +1.5 tonight and feeling very confident.
No play on total in SF.

[stevenash]

^
Game line is razor sharp too.
Books will break even this game, but collect the juice.
I can see public winning 50 percent, books winning 50 percent.
Books line on both game and total are valueless, there is no value anywhere.
I'm going to check the props - there might be something there

[BeanTownClown88]

I wanted to take the under but couldn't do it. SF at home and one of STL's leaders and heavy bats is out of the line up. Even if SF loses, it's the "Smart" play.

[stevenash]

The more I look at this, the more I think St. Louis can steal game 3

[abovepar]

I believe so as well. Hudson is more likely to get rocked than Lackey. This game will be close and cardinals seem to always come up with a key hit. I still like the under and if I had to take a side it would be cards.

Maybe a small parlay just cause?

[Pauulzcappin]

cardinals tt over 3. at worst a push imo.

[stevenash]

^
My philosophy
"gamble to break even"

[killacappapilla]

Just saw that Hudson is 4-0 with a .079 ERA with Davis as homeplate umpire..

[stevenash]

^
When sinker ball meets sinker ball
Hudson knows too.
One thing Hudson can do is paint.

[abovepar]

Lackey got ahead in count but couldn't finish on the two singles leading to a run with 2 out.... Then all hell broke loose. Glad I talked to you guys and only took it for 100..

[stevenash]

Classic Lackey, text book Lackey.
That's why I didn't pull the Card trigger.

Gets rocked, blames everybody but himself.
Hey deuche, you were the one that served up the pitch.

Under needs serious help

[killacappapilla]

Would have been ok had Gritchuk or whatever made that play in right field. You gotta back yourself up to the wall and try and make the play.. the ball was in the air long enough for Jay to back him up in center field had the ball bounced off the top of the wall.

[abovepar]

I agree.. Second look and that play should have been made.

[Pauulzcappin]

cardinals tt over 3. at worst a push imo.

this one never in doubt. thanks bochy for leaving this hamburger in.

[abovepar]

Yeah good play. I was hoping for a push. First inning killed it.