1. #1
    stevenash
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    Baltimore (ALCS - Game 3) at Kansas City

    Not going to wager this game tonight, can't fade KC, to fade this magic carpet ride right now is risky business, but going into this series, the best match up for KC was game 2, that played out true to form, and Baltimore's best match up, most likely game to win is game 3, this match up.

    Game is pretty much a man to an pick 'em.
    Chen (LHP) is the better starter, 16 game winner 3.54 ERA 1.20 WH/IP.
    Guthrie, I would describe as servicable, back end of the rotation guy, 13 game winner, 4.13 ERA 1.30 WH/IP

    Also need to know that Chen had a better season this year on the road as opposed to home.
    www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=chenwe02&year=&t=p

    Kaufman plays large, some of Baltimore's power may be negated, Guthie gave up 23 homers, not that bad, and has had success against Batimore's big hitters in the past.

    You can make a case for KC tonight, home team, momentum, Guthrie's past success against Balt.
    You can make a case for Balt tonight, must win (if you buy into that angle) better starter .....

    I don't want any part of this game, can't fade KC, can't fade the better starter here at a very fair price.

    Vegas is making this game very affordable for both sides tonight.

    Reduced Baseball Run Line Money Line Total Runs
    Reduced Juice - Internet Only
    Mon 10/13 959 Baltimore Orioles W Chen - L -1½ +155 -107 o7½ +100
    8:05PM 960 Kansas City Royals J Guthrie - R +1½ -165 +102 u7½ -110
    Mon 10/13 1861 Kansas City Royals (Series) -405
    8:05PM 1862 Baltimore Orioles (Series) +360






    KANSAS CITY ROYALS CAREER STATISTICS VS. WEI-YIN CHEN
    BATTER AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
    Norichika Aoki 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.286 0.286 0.286 0.571
    Billy Butler 18 8 2 1 2 4 1 3 0.444 0.474 1 1.474
    Lorenzo Cain 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.667
    Jarrod Dyson 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    Alcides Escobar 17 5 1 0 0 1 0 1 0.294 0.294 0.353 0.647
    Alex Gordon 16 5 0 0 1 1 0 5 0.313 0.313 0.5 0.813
    Eric Hosmer 17 7 1 0 2 5 1 0 0.412 0.444 0.824 1.268
    Raul Ibanez 3 2 2 0 0 1 0 1 0.667 0.667 1.333 2
    Omar Infante 6 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0.167 0.167 0.667 0.833
    Mike Moustakas 6 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.333 0.333 0.5 0.833
    Jayson Nix 5 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 0.2 0.375 0.2 0.575
    Salvador Perez 13 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.154 0.2 0.154 0.354
    Josh Willingham 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4
    Totals 129 41 8 1 6 17 6 15 0.318 0.343 0.535 0.878
    BALTIMORE ORIOLES CAREER STATISTICS VS. JEREMY GUTHRIE
    BATTER AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
    Nelson Cruz 24 6 1 0 0 6 3 3 0.25 0.31 0.292 0.602
    Chris Davis 19 3 0 0 2 2 2 6 0.158 0.238 0.474 0.712
    Alejandro De Aza 32 8 2 0 0 1 4 4 0.25 0.351 0.313 0.664
    Ryan Flaherty 8 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 0.25 0.333 0.25 0.583
    J.J. Hardy 14 3 0 0 0 1 0 2 0.214 0.214 0.214 0.429
    Nick Hundley 5 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 0.4 0.4 0.6 1
    Kelly Johnson 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0.091 0 0.091
    Adam Jones 12 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 0.083 0.154 0.083 0.237
    Nick Markakis 12 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 0.25 0.308 0.25 0.558
    Jonathan Schoop 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.333 0.333 0.333 0.667
    Delmon Young 27 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0.148 0.207 0.185 0.392
    Totals 224 48 6 1 2 16 15 27 0.214 0.267 0.277 0.544
    GUTHRIE V. BALT
    2014
    DATE VS. FINAL IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB Pit
    16-May vs BAL L 4-0 8 8 4 4 1 1 2 13 17 116
    26-Apr @ BAL L 3-2 7 6 2 2 0 1 3 11 12 97
    2013
    DATE VS. FINAL IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB Pit
    25-Jul vs BAL W 7-1 6 6 1 1 0 1 5 8 9 102
    9-May @ BAL W 6-2 6 7 2 1 1 3 3 8 12 100
    CHEN V. KC
    DATE VS. FINAL IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB Pit
    15-May @ KC W 2-1 5.1 7 1 1 0 1 1 13 8 95
    26-Apr vs KC W 3-2 7 9 2 2 0 2 6 12 12 102
    2013
    DATE VS. FINAL IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB Pit
    24-Jul @ KC L 4-3 7.1 7 3 3 2 0 3 7 18 107
    7-May vs KC W 4-3 6.1 9 2 2 0 0 2 14 10 80

  2. #2
    Pauulzcappin
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    Haven't read about the weather but I like the over in this one

  3. #3
    Bostongambler
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    I agree there is no way one can fade the Royals right now.

  4. #4
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pauulzcappin View Post
    Haven't read about the weather but I like the over in this one
    http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/kan...orecast/329441
    Last edited by stevenash; 10-13-14 at 10:55 AM.

  5. #5
    Pauulzcappin
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    what do you think rain favors? over or under?

    balty could win because guthrie is kc's worst starter but chen got pounded silly last time up

  6. #6
    stevenash
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    This game, truth be told, is a dart throw.
    Probably go with the momentum.
    Close game I am sensing though

  7. #7
    importmoon
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    I wonder what was the extra inning prop on this game... just wonder..

  8. #8
    Spedizzo
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    I really wish the As closed that wild card game out

    I can't stand the Royals

    I hope Chen throws a heater at Billy Butler's fat head

  9. #9
    importmoon
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    and BTW nash thx for your breakdown for this game... BIG help...good job..

  10. #10
    thebestthereis
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bostongambler View Post
    I agree there is no way one can fade the Royals right now.
    anyone using that word or betting against royals as home dogs or until they lose is clueless, period. they might lose, but lose your shirt is more likely to happen. good luck!

  11. #11
    importmoon
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    It's like a pitcher having a 0-2 count... you had a lot of options on the next pitch...on the batter side you r against the wall...

  12. #12
    RollinDo
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    Why is KC +1.5 at -165 such a good line?
    That's where I'll be on this one...as long as game doesn't go to extras, think it's a very solid play.

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