1. #1
    jzila
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    anyone ever see this

    early in the week alot of games come on the under and the weekends there always a shit load of games go on the over

  2. #2
    EBone
    Washington State +140 over Wichita State
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    Well, I haven't necessarily noticed the above comment. But I have noticed this:

    Pace of runs scored is way, way down at this point compared to 2006. A sceptic might say that the humidor settings in Colorado may start getting turned down in order to start boosting those run totals a bit if you buy that runs scored equals more attendance.

    When did the humidor settings start taking shape last year in Colorado? I don't think they used it the entire year. Wasn't it around late May or early June?


    E

  3. #3
    The HG
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    Quote Originally Posted by EBone View Post
    Well, I haven't necessarily noticed the above comment. But I have noticed this:

    Pace of runs scored is way, way down at this point compared to 2006. A sceptic might say that the humidor settings in Colorado may start getting turned down in order to start boosting those run totals a bit if you buy that runs scored equals more attendance.

    When did the humidor settings start taking shape last year in Colorado? I don't think they used it the entire year. Wasn't it around late May or early June?


    E
    Well last year, as we should all remember, games were going over at a very high rate, and that lasted for a long time, into May, I seem to recall all of May. I don't remember exactly when things evened out. This year, things started off trending very strongly to the under, but have evened out in recent days.

    The humidor was a big mystery to outsiders last year, with a lot of rumors and hearsay floating around. I know they tried out different tactics, like sometimes taking balls as random as opposed to taking balls that had been in the longest, adjusting the duration of time in the humidor, out of it, etc etc. It's not clear what they did when, but the scores definitely reflected abrupt changes, and it was pretty obvious after a game or two when something had changed. I seem to recall it was a Mets series when things changed to high-scoring at the end of the year.

    This year, in the same way that in nature there are certain species that are indicators of what is going on with the whole ecosystem, with Colorado, I think Josh Fogg might be a good example of that. I remember last year, seeing him pitch consecutive 7-inning 1-run starts or something like that at home, and that's when you could really tell something was up.

    This year, it actually seems like they have figured things out with the humidor, good for fans and players and baseball I guess, less good for sharp-eyed gamblers. Colorado's home games have been 3-6 to the over so far, but their scores have been very consistent, 9 or 10 runs every game, which makes me think things will be very stable there from here on out. The lines started off a half-run or so too high, but they will adjust very quickly if things continue as they have, and you will see totals around 9.5 for most games, and most games will see about that many runs.

  4. #4
    Willie Bee
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    Oh man, HG. I'm disappointed. You actually believe in this humidor conspiracy? You do realize the humidor has been in use at Coors for more than just last year, right? And you do realize that humidors are being incorporated at ALL major league stadiums now, right?

    The humidor story was just something to get you talking about baseball and buying newspapers or clickin' links.

    Anyway, back to the subject at hand. With all of the early cancellations we've had, I would hate to start thinking of any current trends as something that will hold true for much longer, much less for the entire season. But what jzila is seeing, at least in terms of the runs scored, is a bit true so far.

    Went back and just figured up total run frequencies for the last two weeks. There has been a little more offense on the weekend, and that might be attributed to a lot of the weekend games being played in the daytime when it's a bit warmer. So yes, weather factors might be playing into this. But humidor settings? No.

    April 9-12, Mon-Thu, total runs in games:
    11+ runs: 10 (23%)
    9-10 runs: 7 (14%)
    7-8 runs: 7 (14%)
    6 or less: 23 (48%)

    April 13-15, Fri-Sun, total runs in games:
    11+ runs: 13 (35%)
    9-10 runs: 11 (29%)
    7-8 runs: 5 (13%)
    6 or less: 8 (21%)

    April 16-19, Mon-Thu, total runs in games:
    11+ runs: 18 (34%)
    9-10 runs: 14 (26%)
    7-8 runs: 10 (19%)
    6 or less: 10 (19%)

    April 20-22, Fri-Sun, total runs in games:
    11+ runs: 21 (46%)
    9-10 runs: 9 (20%)
    7-8 runs: 6 (13%)
    6 or less: 9 (20%)

  5. #5
    The HG
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    Yes the humidor has been in use in Colorado for more than last year, but I read in more than a few places that there was a specific effort by Colorado to experiment around with it to try to control the number of runs scored at Coors. Sure the stuff I read could have been wrong, I don't know anyone on the inside at Colorado, but there was definitely something screwy going on with totals last year at Coors.

    It matters how long a ball has been in the humidor, and when it is removed, or so I've read. There may be other factors as well. I've read varying theories about what exactly contributed to the high totals at Coors and how much they contributed, but I was under the impression from many places that they were trying to have more normal scores at Coors, and they certainly seem to have succeeded. And last year, I believe (although I haven't looked at actual numbers, so I'm not 100% sure) the scores at Coors were much lower than they had ever been. That's not because Colorado suddenly had great pitching and weak hitting. And especially when you consider how split up the season was for Colorado games in terms of overs and unders.

  6. #6
    EBone
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie Bee View Post
    Oh man, HG. I'm disappointed. You actually believe in this humidor conspiracy? You do realize the humidor has been in use at Coors for more than just last year, right? And you do realize that humidors are being incorporated at ALL major league stadiums now, right?

    The humidor story was just something to get you talking about baseball and buying newspapers or clickin' links.

    Anyway, back to the subject at hand. With all of the early cancellations we've had, I would hate to start thinking of any current trends as something that will hold true for much longer, much less for the entire season. But what jzila is seeing, at least in terms of the runs scored, is a bit true so far.

    Went back and just figured up total run frequencies for the last two weeks. There has been a little more offense on the weekend, and that might be attributed to a lot of the weekend games being played in the daytime when it's a bit warmer. So yes, weather factors might be playing into this. But humidor settings? No.

    April 9-12, Mon-Thu, total runs in games:
    11+ runs: 10 (23%)
    9-10 runs: 7 (14%)
    7-8 runs: 7 (14%)
    6 or less: 23 (48%)

    April 13-15, Fri-Sun, total runs in games:
    11+ runs: 13 (35%)
    9-10 runs: 11 (29%)
    7-8 runs: 5 (13%)
    6 or less: 8 (21%)

    April 16-19, Mon-Thu, total runs in games:
    11+ runs: 18 (34%)
    9-10 runs: 14 (26%)
    7-8 runs: 10 (19%)
    6 or less: 10 (19%)

    April 20-22, Fri-Sun, total runs in games:
    11+ runs: 21 (46%)
    9-10 runs: 9 (20%)
    7-8 runs: 6 (13%)
    6 or less: 9 (20%)
    Willie Bee, if you do not believe in the humidor "conspiracy", then please explain the suddenly lower run totals at Coors during the middle and end of last year's season. I don't know of any logical explanation except for an outside force that hadn't been introduced before but I, for one, would certainly welcome an explanation that makes sense.

    I'd be interested in hearing some of the visiting pitchers' take on why they aren't giving up as many runs as they used to in Coors. They probably wouldn't volunteer this information as their ERAs are going down when pitching in Coors which makes them happy.


    E

  7. #7
    Willie Bee
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    E, it's not that I don't believe the humidor has had any effect on offense at Coors. It's just that I don't believe it had as much to do with last year's scores as most others.

    My opinion is that, over time, pitchers have adjusted to pitching there just as they did after the 2000 season at the new park in Houston. Colorado's overall offensive talent has declined from their earlier years as well. As I mentioned in the post/link below, it's only last year that the general public even snapped to the fact the humidor had been in use for the previous four seasons at Coors. I simply don't think the Rockies are monkeying with the apparatus as much as fans, media and bettors suggest.

    Rockies 2007 MLB Preview, humidor discussed

    Link to original article at MLB.com
    Last edited by Willie Bee; 04-24-07 at 09:56 AM. Reason: clarification

  8. #8
    Willie Bee
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ganchrow HG View Post
    Yes the humidor has been in use in Colorado for more than last year, but I read in more than a few places that there was a specific effort by Colorado to experiment around with it to try to control the number of runs scored at Coors...It matters how long a ball has been in the humidor, and when it is removed, or so I've read.
    Oh yeah, I have no doubt that they tested out different temps/humidty in the thing. But I don't think there was as much manipulating as others suspect last season. And you're right about the notion of how long the balls were kept in there...the link to the MLB.com story above even mentions how they've told all clubs they can't use balls left over from previous seasons.

    I'll try to force some time in my schedule the next couple of days to go back and do a harder look at scores in Coors from 2001 (B.H., before humidor) through last season. Maybe I'll prove myself wrong

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