1* Angels -144: I rarely lay this much chalk, but I'm going to make an exception here. The Angels offense has finally started to hit the last two games, and now they face Jeff Weaver, who is simply garbage and has been hammered in his two starts. While Ervin Santana has also been hit hard in his last two outings, both of those games were on the road against very good offenses in Cleveland and Boston. The Mariners don't have the same caliber of lineup as those two teams, and Santana has been outstanding for his career pitching at home. Santana's career home/away splits: Home - 31 GS, 19-5, 3.09 ERA, Opp Avg. 228, Away - 25 GS, 9-11, 6.46 ERA, Opp. Avg. 284.
I do agree with you on Jeff, he is garbage. But I think the Mariners have the line up to give Santana problems. I like the plus money with the Mariners.
Passing on this game completely rjt. This is one of those games where I can't bet the M's as much as I might like too because of the Jeff Weaver factor.
I agree with your Angels play rjt. It's an interesting game, because taking the Angels is a bit of an "obvious" play because it's saying that 2 stark trends will continue, namely, Santana being awesome at home, and Weaver being terrible in general. Trends like those are usually fully factored into the line, and often overfactored, in fact. But here, I think there is still value with the Angels. Not a huge amount, so I agree with you keeping your bet at 1 unit. But I do think there's value with the Angels.
1* Yanks/Sox under 10.5 -105: Already minus Matsui's bat, the Yanks will be without Posada and possibly Damon tonight. I think Matsuzaka will pitch well in his biggest test against a depleted NYY lineup. I also think Chase Wright will keep the Yankees in the game tonight. He put up solid numbers in the minors last year and was impressive this spring. He also did a very respectable job in his first start against the Indians. This is the Red Sox first time seeing Wright, and the kid's stuff is good enough to give Boston's lineup difficulty. Tough to bet the under when these two teams meet, but I think this is a perfect spot.
RE the Yankee under, just FYI, there's a 15 MPH wind out to center reported on MLB.com, and the HP ump, Holbrook, is probably a legitimate over-trending ump, in '05-'06 his games went over at more than a 60% clip, and he has generally lowish strike pcts.
On the other hand it's true that Dice will be bearing down for this game. He came to the park at 3 PM to throw, work out, etc etc. And Boston has recently had problems with crafty lefties they haven't seen before, and Wright fits the bill well. He was dominant in the minors and looks like he'll be able to handle the majors immediately. So I see the under angle, but if things do unravel for either starter, someone could put up a bunch of runs in a hurry.
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rjt MLB plays April 22 (YTD 23-14-3)
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