[stevenash]

I don't have the time to post 12 a paragraph thread tonight like I did for last night's game, but I do have the time to post why I like Bumgarner tonight.

Bumgarner is the league's best LHP not named Kershaw, and is an elite LHP.

Nobody is discounting what Volquez did down the stretch for the Pirates, and he was 8-0 in those last 11 starts he has made since 8/1, I am being constantly reminded of that stat, but let's not get carried away with that, and if you break those 11 starts down, it is true Volquez was 8-0, however he did beat a hapless Brave team that packed it in on July 4, and weak 'Zona team, and the Marlins.

However 3 of those 11 starts come attached with a ND-L next to his name, where he escaped the loss, but the team did not, and one of those were against the Phils.

Let's not lose sight of the fact EV had the ninth poorest walk ratio, and also led the league in wild pitches.

Up until June of this year, Volquez was a ham and egger, a gas can, with a career ERA of 4.5 and a WH/IP of 1.45
Those are poor career numbers.

Bumgarner is as consistent as they come, he was an 18 game winner this year, rock solid 2.98 ERA and rock solid 1.07 WH/IP, and those are not fluke numbers, they mimic Bumgarners career numbers, and like I said, he is what he is, an elite LHP.

I can go on and break it down further as to why Bumgarner is clearly the better starter, but I have a couple of things to do. But Bummy is.

On offense, as a whole, Pirates are a soft hitting team against better LHP.
The power numbers are awful versus LHP
They are, the numbers don't lie, I love McCutchen, he's the NL Mike Trout, but I would fear him more tonight against an average RHP, Mercer hits second tonight, and he scared nobody.

SF Giants have what I call the three 'P's in their lineup, Panda, Pence and Posey, Panda and Posey owns Volquez, Pence not so much (.197) but Hunter is a magician with the bat, hit and runs, moves runners up, steals bases, gold glove caliber defense, yadda yadda yadda.

Don't overlook Brandon Belt, he smahes Endison as well.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvsp...dinson-volquez

I respect the Pirate fans, I respect the Pirates spunk, no one is disrepecting anything that is Pirate black or the Jolly Roger, I don't like, nor dislike the Giants or the Pirates, but from a baseball and stat and numbers junkie looking at this game from a level headed, neutral point of view, the Pirates are in a difficult spot here excluding the home field advantage.

SF has the clear cut better starter, the SF Giant line up has hurt Volquez in the past, even the SF manager Bochy is the anti-Yost, Bochy is a master technician in handling the bullpen, and so is his pitching coach Rags.

I got to run for now, but on paper, besides the home field, pretty much everything points to a 4-2 Giant win.

3* Giants -107 reduced juice at 5D

If you are tracking my post season plays, it's 1-0 with a 2* Royal win last night.
(It's in post 1 of last nights thread)

Good luck to the Pirate fans though, I know how you love your team, no disrespect here.

[jjgold]

These one game playoffs are a mockery to baseball

[tatddy]

God I love Nash. "I don't have time for an essay so here's 15 paragraphs"

I will just add that those b vs p stats vs EV aren't intirely indicative since the guy has almost completely reinvented himself. His sinker percentage is higher than his 4 seamer now and his BB rate has almost been cut in half. That said I'd MUCH rather face him than liriano or Cole.
I wish you the very best of luck. You know where my heart is.

[No coincidences]

God I love Nash. "I don't have time for an essay so here's 15 paragraphs"

I will just add that those b vs p stats vs EV aren't intirely indicative since the guy has almost completely reinvented himself. His sinker percentage is higher than his 4 seamer now and his BB rate has almost been cut in half. That said I'd MUCH rather face him than liriano or Cole.
I wish you the very best of luck. You know where my heart is.

Exactly.

Hard to gauge what you're going to see from Volquez tonight. I refuse to believe that he is this good, but the books seem to be believers. I have SF -120 here.

[stevenash]

These one game playoffs are a mockery to baseball

Why?
They are wild card one game play in's.
They are what they are, the two best runner ups playing a game to make a fourth playoff team.
If you want a best of seven series, win your division.

[BadLuckSanta]

Nasherrrr smash her


I'm going to be completely shit faced by first pitch

[sourtwist]

Capping games is a waste of time. Flip a coin....you are all just tricking yourselves into thinking its not a crapshoot. Sports are impossible to predict. Just because you win doesnt mean its for the reasons you thought.

Heads: SF
Tails: Pitt

Landed on heads, SF it is.

Good luck.

[stevenash]

Exactly.

Hard to gauge what you're going to see from Volquez tonight. I refuse to believe that he is this good, but the books seem to be believers. I have SF -120 here.

He turned it around in June, even the first three months he was still getting smacked.
Let's not lose sight of the fact that Bummy in 18 road starts this year was 11-4 2.22 ERA.
I can't ignore that data. I can't

[Darkside Magick]

Like SF also

[baseballstud]

These one game playoffs are a mockery to baseball

All that matters is that your bet wins, who cares about the rest.

[stevenash]

Capping games is a waste of time. Flip a coin....you are all just tricking yourselves into thinking its not a crapshoot. Sports are impossible to predict. Just because you win doesnt mean its for the reasons you thought.

Heads: SF
Tails: Pitt

Landed on heads, SF it is.

Good luck.

Strongly, but respectfully disagree.
History has a tendency to repeat itself.

If a batter is 40 for 100 lifetime versus a certain pitcher, very good chance that batter will get a hit or two off him the next time he faces him.

If a .320 hitter is .390 against righties but .230 against lefties, chances are he'll go hitless against a decent lefty the next start.

All good though.

[sourtwist]

Nash, youre one of the good guys here, and the simple fact that you didnt take what I said personal is a testament to the type of individual you are.

I know you are passionate about this stuff and I respect that, but ive been doing this shit for more than 15 years as many others around here have and all I know is that there's no method to the madness. Anything and everything can and will happen. Been on hot and cold streaks, mostly cold and vig sucks us dry. gotta pick a game and hit it hard, no one or two unit plays. Wtf is a unit anyway? Nobody here measures it the same so its irrelevant.

I hope everyone wins but thats just not in the cards.

[stevenash]

I have found in baseball, and I only do baseball, that many, many times you can get an advantage if you get inside the numbers.
Also, I agree that you can not get rich betting chalk, you can be successful betting spots with a + number next to it.

[stevenash]

[jjgold]

Good call Nashy now go make us a video and count the cash you won

[stevenash]

^
Or count the cash I give back on NCAA foots later this week.

[stevenash]

Nasherrrr smash her


I'm going to be completely shit faced by first pitch

Sounds like a plan, drawback is you don't remember the game come morning.

The Aaron Boone walk off game I started like in the fourth inning, game kept going and going, I drank myself sober by the time he hit that bomb.

[stevenash]

Buster Olney retweeted

Steve Levy ‏@espnSteveLevy 11m11 minutes ago
Brandon Crawford's grand slam was the first hit by a shortstop in postseason history #DidYouKnow

[smitch124]

Why?
They are wild card one game play in's.
They are what they are, the two best runner ups playing a game to make a fourth playoff team.
If you want a best of seven series, win your division.

You know whats interesting here. If they were playing by the old rules 3 division winners and 1 wild card into the division series. The Pirates and Giants had the same record and there would be a 1 game playoff to decide who advanced. So nothing is different in this case, really.

[stevenash]

^
I noticed that too, and good point sir.

[baseballstud]

Nice win, i was already on the PIrates and got shallacked, fortunately i took the +5000 on first homerun a grandslam. came out even hahah

[jjgold]

The experience handicapper won and the experienced team won

[Pauulzcappin]

excellent call mr. nasher

half of my profits from yesterday gone but all good

do we dare to fade kc after that emotional win from yesterday? and what are your thoughts on det/balty?

[stevenash]

Thank you, KC is on a magic carpet ride. Fade at own risk, I'm locked in at + 170 for the series, Angels have to use Dream Weaver on short rest in game 4 and the rest of the rotation does not scare me, I'll take + 170 for the series 8 days a week.

Max will out pitch Tillman in game 1 and I think the Tigers middle of the order will waylay Mr. Tillman, bet the over in game 1 as well.

excellent call mr. nasher

half of my profits from yesterday gone but all good

do we dare to fade kc after that emotional win from yesterday? and what are your thoughts on det/balty?

[tatddy]

Grats pal! I hit it pretty good too.

[t-wizzle]

Nice hit nash.

[stevenash]

^
Good job, to be honest I knew Pitt was so outclassed tonight, but I toned it down out of respect for the Pirate fans here, the Pirate fans on the boards are good folk, know their shit, and are respectful, but they were in a real bad spot, Bummy v. Volquez was a mismatch of gigantic proportions.

[Pauulzcappin]

Thank you, KC is on a magic carpet ride. Fade at own risk, I'm locked in at + 170 for the series, Angels have to use Dream Weaver on short rest in game 4 and the rest of the rotation does not scare me, I'll take + 170 for the series 8 days a week.

Max will out pitch Tillman in game 1 and I think the Tigers middle of the order will waylay Mr. Tillman, bet the over in game 1 as well.

afternoon game at camden, should be 75 or so... likey like the over