On the surface this looks like a mismatch on the mound in the Cubs' favor. But we're playing this one against the grain and taking the Atlanta Braves at home vs Chicago.
Starting pitching in baseball can be very tricky and it takes going against the grain in a lot of cases which is not for the faint of heart. That is the case in this game as going against the grain is the right move and several reasons for that.
The Cubs have been a better team on the road than at home but playing them as chalk against the Braves is overly aggressive and that is based on the starting pitching solely. The hitting is not taken into consideration and that is half of the equation of the how a pitcher performs.
Rich Hill has been on fire as he has allowed only one run total in his first two starts and the lefty has had a good run of success since the end of last season. The Cubs have only lost once in his last eight starts dating back to last year, and Hill has been fortunate this season with a ton of run support and that has been more luck than anything else. Chicago has scored seven or more runs three times on the season and two of those were in Hill’s starts. An early look might think the Cubs will get, that but it’s not that easy.
Mark Redman has been putrid thus far, allowing 12 earned runs in his first two starts but the third start usually can get things going. He will be facing a very inconsistent Chicago offense and one that has faced only one left-handed starter on the season. The Cubs are hitting only .156 against lefties on the season, including .185 on the road. Their big offseason acquisition, Alfonso Soriano, is out with a hamstring injury cutting down the offense even more even though as he has not shown much to this point.
One thing going the way of Redman is he has had success against the Cubs in the past and that is big for the mental game. He is 2-2 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in five career starts against Chicago. The Braves have completely dominated this series as they have won 15 of the last 18 meetings including eight of nine at home. The Cubs have struggled against the entire division going just 17-43 against the East and they are over-matched here once again in all aspects and not just looking at the starters. Play Atlanta for one unit.
The Cubs are a different team when Hill is on the mound. This spot isn't as good a play on them as others have been and are likely to be, but I still think the value here is with the Cubs.
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Matt Fargo: Back Braves (+105) vs Cubs
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