[SBRforum Staff]

Twins & Mariners Under 7½

Game Time: 4/18/2007 10:00:00 PM -
By: Ben Burns


Tonight's pitching matchup spells U-N-D-E-R. Play it that way when Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners host Carlos Silva and the Minnesota Twins.

After nearly pitching a no-hitter vs. the Red Sox in his last start, the word is out on Felix Hernandez. The Seattle star, who has yet to give up a run this season, was a slight favorite in his first start and an underdog in his last. He's nearly a 2-1 favorite today though, no longer offering any line value.

While some of the value has also been lost with playing on Hernandez to play under the total, I still feel that the Under is the correct way to go today. Though nobody can top Hernandez's 0.00 ERA and 0.471 WHIP, Minnesota starter Carlos Silva's numbers aren't too shabby either. Indeed, Silva has a 0.77 ERA through his two starts. Not surprisingly, both starters have seen the Under go 2-0 thus far.

Both starters have also fared extremely well vs. today's opponent. Silva is 3-1 and has a stellar 2.75 ERA (1.222 WHIP) vs. the Mariners while Hernandez is 2-1 with a miniscule 1.80 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in four starts vs. the Twins. Three of those four games fell below the total and this one should too. Look for another pitchers duel and consider a play on the Under.

Play: Twins-Mariners Under 7½

[bigboydan]

I'll take my chances with Minny +190 in this game.

[The HG]

I think there is a little value here, but only a little. Silva has a very high degree of volatility recently, which can for now be assumed to still be the case. That volatility reduces the appropriate amount for a bet here. Seattle has gone over 5 of their 7 home games so far, but I still agree there's a little value here with the under, but only a little.

[RickySteve]

I hate this play so much. The line here should 8 shaded over, not 7.5 shaded under.