Yesterday: 3-0 +4.00 units
YTD: 18-10-3 +9.25 units
1* Angels/A's under 7.5 -110: The Angels offense is brutal right now, scoring a total of of 4 runs in their last four games. All five meetings between these two teams this year have gone under, and I think that trend will continue with Lackey and Haren facing each other. In my opinion, they are two of the top eight pitchers in the AL. If things weren't bad enough for LAA, Vlad Guerrero is unlikely to play for the second night in a row.
1* D'Backs -115: Tough spot for SD. The strength of this team is undoubtedly their bullpen, which I believe is the best in MLB. Linebrink, Brocail, Meredith, and Bell each pitched 2 innings in the team's 14 inning game against the Cubs, and all four will likely be unavailable tonight. David Wells will have to pitch deep in this game for SD to have a chance, and at his age I'm not sure he is capable. He is also coming off a disastrous start against the Dodgers. Arizona, meanwhile, is coming off two disappointing losses to LAD, and have arguably the best pitcher in the NL in Brandon Webb pitching.
On the DBacks with you, really like Arizona to sneak in a victory tomorrow. Check my thread for my other plays.
Also liking the value the Twins are getting tomorrow against Hernandez (he has to have a bad game eventually right?) We will see how my early games go, and then perhaps a late play.
I think these are both solid plays. The Arizona play probably only has a little value though. The SD pen should be ok, unless the game goes into extra innings, which of course is entirely possible with low scoring games like these. But if it doesn't, Meredith and Hoffman could both go again, and Wells could go 6 easily. It's always dangerous to take a road fave based on superior starting pitching, but the line isn't too steep here. There is also, probably, a relatively high correlation between an over and an Arizona win. Besides being on the road, if the game does go over, it's much more likely to be because of Arizona runs than SD runs. But, I like the under better than the over, so I probably won't do an Arizona/over parlay.
.5* Twins +200: Just a small play, but I have to take a shot with MIN at this price. King Felix is great, but I think this number is inflated because of the press he received from his last performance against Boston. I just don't think Seattle should be this big of a fav. against a very good Twins team. Silva is nowhere near the caliber of pitcher as Hernandez, but he has pitched very well thus far, allowing only 1 run in his first two starts.
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rjt MLB plays April 18 (YTD 18-10-3)
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