1. #1
    dejong77
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    MLB Totals Unders and runline System Test

    I am starting this thread because i am testing out a database with all kind of filters and data in it.

    I have loaded my sbr sportsbook with 1000 bet credits and will wager just 10 bet credits at a time.

    Be carefull with following/fading as this isn't backtested yet.

    This part of the test i will only be playing the under. Also runlines



    8/24 Under
    Cardinals-Pirates (U 7,5 -117) (game is allready finished) Win
    Braves-Mets (U 6,5 108) (5) W +1,08
    Yankees-Tigers (U 7,5 -114) (12) L -1,00
    Red Sox-Blue Jays (U 8,5 -104) (7) W + 0,96
    Indians-White Sox (U 7,5 108) (5) W + 1,08
    Athletics-Astros (U 8,5 115) (9) L -1,00

    8/24 Runline

    Mariners (-1,5 132) (game is allready finished) Loss
    Reds (-1,5 142) W 1,42
    Dodgers (-1,5 -130) W 0,76
    Tigers (-1,5 122) L -1
    Jays (-1,5 148) W 1,48

    Totals:
    Day: 3-2 +1,12 Units
    Total: 3-2 +1,12 units

    Runline
    Day: 3-1 2,66 units
    Total: 3-1 2,66 units

    SBR Sportsbook 1000 -> 1028



    Last edited by dejong77; 08-28-14 at 11:21 AM. Reason: results

  2. #2
    dejong77
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    Made 28 SBR bet credits profit yesterday. Lets see if i can build on that.

    I am playing on all afternoon games

    8/28 Totals
    Yankees-Tigers (U 8,5 100)
    Rockies-Giants (U 7,5 122) (SBR U7 @ 100)

    8/28 runline
    Cubs (-1,5 1,54)
    Last edited by dejong77; 08-28-14 at 12:23 PM. Reason: added lines early games

  3. #3
    jkatakoon
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    Good luck!

    Will be following this thread.

  4. #4
    labones00
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    I'm liking what I see, keep up the good work!

  5. #5
    dejong77
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    Shame that Cubs didn't bounce back.

    totals started good today. one win in the pocket and another still looking good. have 2 runs advantage in the top of the 9th.

    playing 2 more totals today.

    Indians-White Sox (U 8,5 -105)
    Athletics-Angels (U 7,5 -105)

    and one more runline to make up for the Cubs lose
    Astros (-1,5 160)

  6. #6
    dejong77
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    Not grading the next play win or loss

    but playing NY mets ML +115 on my sportsbook account

  7. #7
    dejong77
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    Quote Originally Posted by labones00 View Post
    I'm liking what I see, keep up the good work!
    You are not the only one. I expected once posting here that i got jinxed. lol

    Quote Originally Posted by jkatakoon View Post
    Good luck!

    Will be following this thread.
    Thanks

  8. #8
    RollinDo
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    I'll be playing Oak-LAA Under 8...Once I find out Ump assignment.

  9. #9
    dejong77
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    Quote Originally Posted by RollinDo View Post
    I'll be playing Oak-LAA Under 8...Once I find out Ump assignment.
    hopefully you played it. Total finished at 7 even after extra innings.

  10. #10
    RollinDo
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    I played it, but went 1-3 on Unders for Thurs...haven't done that bad in a couple weeks.
    Awful day, but I'll move on.

  11. #11
    dejong77
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    a recap of the action on august 28th

    we lost the cubs one but astros made up for the loss and added ,60 unit profit. the Under performed great today. 4-0 for almost a gain of 4 units. at least i have some fat around the body if things start to go wrong.

    15 games to choose from tomorrow.

    runline:
    Astros (-1,5 160) -2 W 1,60
    Cubs (-1,5 154) + 5 L 1,00

    Day: 1-1 + 0,60 units
    Total 4-2 + 3,26 units

    Under:
    Yankees-Tigers (U 8,5 100) (5) W 1,00
    Rockies-Giants (U 7,5 122) (SBR U7 @ 100) (5) W 1,00
    Indians-White Sox (U 8,5 -105) (5) W 0,95
    Athletics-Angels (U 7,5 -105) (7) W 0,95

    Day: 4-0 + 3,90 units
    Total: 7-2 + 5,02 units

    SBR Sportsbook 1028 -> 1084

    Note: i forgot to play the cubs runline. therefore the sbr sportsbook credits are higher then actual result.

  12. #12
    dejong77
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    a recap of the action on august 28th

    we lost the cubs one but astros made up for the loss and added ,60 unit profit. the Under performed great today. 4-0 for almost a gain of 4 units. at least i have some fat around the body if things start to go wrong.

    15 games to choose from tomorrow.

    runline:
    Astros (-1,5 160) -2 W 1,60
    Cubs (-1,5 154) + 5 L 1,00

    Day: 1-1 + 0,60 units
    Total 4-2 + 3,26 units

    Under:
    Yankees-Tigers (U 8,5 100) (5) W 1,00
    Rockies-Giants (U 7,5 122) (SBR U7 @ 100) (5) W 1,00
    Indians-White Sox (U 8,5 -105) (5) W 0,95
    Athletics-Angels (U 7,5 -105) (7) W 0,95

    Day: 4-0 + 3,90 units
    Total: 7-2 + 5,02 units

    SBR Sportsbook 1028 -> 1084

    Note: i forgot to play the cubs runline. therefore the sbr sportsbook credits are higher then actual result.

  13. #13
    RollinDo
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    I am contemplating the following Unders for today...wanted to see if any align with your system. Thanks.

    Mil - SF (U 7.5)...buy 1/2 run
    Chi-StL (U 8)...buy 1/2 run
    BoSox-Rays (U 7.5)
    Nats - M's (U 6)

  14. #14
    Bostongambler
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    Well lets hope the last month of the season is good to u. Good luck.

  15. #15
    dejong77
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    Quote Originally Posted by RollinDo View Post
    I am contemplating the following Unders for today...wanted to see if any align with your system. Thanks.

    Mil - SF (U 7.5)...buy 1/2 run
    Chi-StL (U 8)...buy 1/2 run
    BoSox-Rays (U 7.5)
    Nats - M's (U 6)
    Brewers-Giants would certainly be a play i would pick up at 7,5. But i would never give up money to buy a 1/2 run. So will keep an eye out if the line moves to 7,5. if not i will skip it.

    Cubs-Cardinals is going to be a play. There are some filters that point to the game going over. Which you see back in the line. The under is set on even. So with 5 units up i am taking the risk. Jump at it while youre hot

    Red Sox-Rays is a full go. If i would have a top play. This would problably be it. At almost even it almost looks like a steal.

    Nationals-Mariners would be a full go. But as the line is to close to some magic numbers i would only play it if it at least goes with a half run up.

    Hope that helps you.

  16. #16
    RollinDo
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    Quote Originally Posted by dejong77 View Post
    Brewers-Giants would certainly be a play i would pick up at 7,5. But i would never give up money to buy a 1/2 run. So will keep an eye out if the line moves to 7,5. if not i will skip it.

    Cubs-Cardinals is going to be a play. There are some filters that point to the game going over. Which you see back in the line. The under is set on even. So with 5 units up i am taking the risk. Jump at it while youre hot

    Red Sox-Rays is a full go. If i would have a top play. This would problably be it. At almost even it almost looks like a steal.

    Nationals-Mariners would be a full go. But as the line is to close to some magic numbers i would only play it if it at least goes with a half run up.

    Hope that helps you.
    Thanks man.
    I think I'll play Rays Under 7.5 and see how early games go...if it loses, probably go with Mil - SF (U 7)

  17. #17
    dejong77
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bostongambler View Post
    Well lets hope the last month of the season is good to u. Good luck.
    I hope soo too. And then we have a bunch of playoff games to test with. Maybe after that i will build one for NHL too.

  18. #18
    RollinDo
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    When a total is at 7.5 with plus money, I like to buy half a run if it's -120 or better, which is what I got Cubs-Cards for...interesting line movement there, but same happened last night in LAA.

  19. #19
    dejong77
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    Runline 8/29
    Today i am going to play 3 runlines. All in the early games
    Pirates -1,5 155
    Orioles-1,5 105
    Jays -1,5 170

    Unders 8/29
    Reds-Pirates U 7,5 -115
    Cubs-Cardinals U 7,5 100
    Rockies-Diamondbacks U 8,5 -110
    Red Sox - Rays U 7,5 -105
    Tigers-White Sox U 9 108
    Indians-Royals U 7,5 105
    Rangers-Astros U 8,5 -110
    Last edited by dejong77; 08-29-14 at 03:25 PM.

  20. #20
    RollinDo
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    Quote Originally Posted by dejong77 View Post
    Runline 8/29
    Today i am going to play 3 runlines. All in the early games
    Pirates -1,5 155
    Orioles-1,5 105
    Jays -1,5 170
    I personally would play Pirates at -1 since it seems they win a lot of 1 - run games...do what you see best fit though.

  21. #21
    dejong77
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    at least with -1,5 there is no push and i find it heavy chalk.

    Underdog of the day:
    playing Rangers at Houston at 124

    100 bet credits on the line today.

  22. #22
    dejong77
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    Texas won at houston. adding 1,24 unit minus the unit i lost yesterday on the mets makes 0,24 unit profit.
    The runline went 1-2 for a loss of 0,95 unit.

    Runline 8/29
    Pirates -1,5 155 L -1
    Orioles-1,5 105 W +1,05
    Jays -1,5 170 L -1

    today: 1-2 -0,95 units
    total: 5-4 + 2,31

  23. #23
    dejong77
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    Good result on the totals again today. went 4-3 for + 0,91 unit. Lost 0,95 unit on the runline. I see my betcredits on my sportsbook went from 1084 ->1080. This is because i use the odds at my bookmaker to calculate profits and not the lower lines at sbr sportsbook.
    For example tigers-white sox was -105 at sbr while @ 5Dimes it was 105. This is a 10 cents difference 0,10 X 10 = 1 euro/bet credit.

    Reds-Pirates U 7,5 -115 (3) W + 0,87

    Cubs-Cardinals U 7,5 100 (9) L -1,00
    Rockies-Diamondbacks U 8,5 -110 (7) W +0,91
    Red Sox - Rays U 7,5 -105 (12) L -1,00
    Tigers-White Sox U 9 108 (8) W + 1,08
    Indians-Royals U 7,5 105 (7) W + 1,05
    Rangers-Astros U 8,5 -110 (19) L -1,00
    today: 4-3 + 0,91 units
    Total: 11-5 + 5,93 units

  24. #24
    dejong77
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    Quote Originally Posted by RollinDo View Post
    I personally would play Pirates at -1 since it seems they win a lot of 1 - run games...do what you see best fit though.
    I wolud have been the right play in this case.

    Quote Originally Posted by RollinDo View Post
    When a total is at 7.5 with plus money, I like to buy half a run if it's -120 or better, which is what I got Cubs-Cards for...interesting line movement there, but same happened last night in LAA.
    I always keep the original lines. Certainly at even or better. Because on average it keeps the strike rate down. more to 50%. plus you only lay money for a push. In the end the under on the cubs didn't cover.

    You are good in picking offers.
    Mil - SF (U 7.5)...buy 1/2 run (15) L
    Chi-StL (U 8)...buy 1/2 run (9) L
    BoSox-Rays (U 7.5) (12) L
    Nats - M's (U 6) (11) L

    I did have an idea it would go over for cubs-cards. Nationals-Mariners i didn't look at closely as i mostly skip games at a Under 7 mark. Brewers-Giants same story. Red Sox-Rays took me by surprise.


    Last edited by dejong77; 08-30-14 at 04:31 AM.

  25. #25
    dejong77
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    Starting the day

    Yankees-Blue Jays U 8,5 +105
    Reds-Pirates U 7,5 -120



    Outside the system i will play my underdog of the Day.

    Blue Jays +115.
    Last edited by dejong77; 08-30-14 at 09:42 AM.

  26. #26
    dejong77
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    Here is an other system i am trying out. not back tested so follow or fade with care:
    Tigers-White Sox G1 over 7 -120
    Tigers-White Sox G2 over 9,5 -115
    Seattle ML +105 against Nationals
    Dodgers-Padres U 6,5 +100
    Rockies-Diamondbacks U 8,5 -120
    Miami-Atlanta O 7 -120

    This will not be graded in the other system.
    Last edited by dejong77; 08-30-14 at 04:34 PM.

  27. #27
    dejong77
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    Both Jays bets covered.

    Quote Originally Posted by dejong77 View Post
    Starting the day

    Yankees-Blue Jays U 8,5 +105 (2) W + 1,05
    Reds-Pirates U 7,5 -120



    Outside the system i will play my underdog of the Day.

    Blue Jays +115. W +1,15

  28. #28
    dejong77
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    Because i won the Jays underdog game of the day, i am going to split the winnings into 4 and put it on 4 other underdogs:
    Mariners +105
    Angels +110
    Rangers 112
    Cubs 112

  29. #29
    dejong77
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    Unders for the late games on 08/30
    Rockies-Diamondbacks U 8,5 -120
    indians-royals U 7,5 1,08
    rangers-astros U 8,5 -105

    Runline 08/30
    Rays -1,5 +135
    Last edited by dejong77; 08-30-14 at 05:32 PM.

  30. #30
    dejong77
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    I took a break sunday. The SBR sportsbook went from 1080 credits -> to 1142 credits.

    unders:
    Phillies-Braves U 6,5 -115
    Red Sox U 7,5 -130
    Brewers-Cubs U 10,5 -115
    Mariners-Athletics U 8 +100
    Diamondback-Padres U 6,5 -115
    Giants-Rockies U10 +100
    Nationals-Dogers U 7,5 -125
    Pirates-Cardinals U 7,5-110

    runline:
    Marlins -1,5
    Rays -1,5
    Giants -1,5
    Royals -1,5

    These ones are from the other system:
    Marlins ML -125
    Marlins U 7 -120
    Orioles -124
    Orioles U8 -115
    Pirates +100
    Giants -135
    dodgers +105
    Last edited by dejong77; 09-01-14 at 12:51 PM. Reason: added pitt-stl U7,5

  31. #31
    dejong77
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    Quote Originally Posted by dejong77 View Post
    I took a break sunday. The SBR sportsbook went from 1080 credits -> to 1142 credits.

    unders:
    Phillies-Braves U 6,5 -115 (7) L -1
    Red Sox U 7,5 -130 (7) W 0,77
    Brewers-Cubs U 10,5 -115 (6) W 0.87
    Mariners-Athletics U 8 +100 (7) W 1,00
    Diamondback-Padres U 6,5 -115 (4) W 0,86
    Giants-Rockies U10 +100 (6) W 1,00
    Nationals-Dogers U 7,5 -125 (10) L -1,0
    Pirates-Cardinals U 7,5-110 (9) L -1,0

    record 5-3 + 1,50

    runline:
    Marlins -1,5 W
    Rays -1,5 L
    Giants -1,5 W
    Royals -1,5 L

    These ones are from the other system:
    Marlins ML -125 W
    Marlins U 7 -120 L
    Orioles -124 L
    Orioles U8 -115 L
    Pirates +100 L
    Giants -135 W
    dodgers +105 L
    The unders and runline performed well but the new system i am trying out lost me a few units. So will stick with the unders and the runline.

  32. #32
    dejong77
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    Today is my birthday and lets see if i am getting a big birthday present.

    Roling with the following picks.

    runline:
    Angels -1,5 +105
    Yankees -1,5 + 130
    Dodgers -1,5 + 120

    Unders:
    Phillies-braves U 7,5 -115
    Mets-Marlins U8 -110
    Pirates-Cardinals U 7,5 -115Diamondbacks-Padres U 6,5 -115
    Red Sox-Yankees U 8,5 +110
    Jays-Rays U 7,5 -110

    Underdog
    Pirates +133
    Rockies +133
    Tigers 130
    Jays +108
    Reds +136
    Last edited by dejong77; 09-02-14 at 04:19 PM. Reason: underdog

  33. #33
    dejong77
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    Lost about 3 units yesterday. Still about 6 units profit left. So will focus on unders

    Unders 9/3
    Phillies-Braves U 7,5 -125
    Pirates-Cardinals U 8,5 -115

    Will add more games later

  34. #34
    BeanTownClown88
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    Under been getting crushed...I dont like totals as much but Washington/LAD O7.5 looks too good to pass up

  35. #35
    dejong77
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    The first picks look to go 1-1

    second part of the afternoon games i play are:
    Giants-Rockies U 11 -115
    Mariners-Athletics U 6,5 -120

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