1. #1
    The HG
    The HG's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-06
    Posts: 3,566

    April 14 Ganchalysis

    DET/TOR – Toronto starter A.J. Burnett gets a quick second chance here against Detroit, and he likely will come through with a strong start, revenging his season-opening disaster against them. Burnett was notably upset by his poor showing in that start, referring to it as “embarrassing” and “unacceptable”, and he is sure to be gunning for a better performance here.

    Of course, that doesn’t guarantee a good showing by him, but it makes it more likely, and with generally ineffective Chad Durbin starting for Detroit, there is some insurance against a sub-par start from Burnett. All of this probably adds up to value on the side of Toronto, even at big favorite odds.



    WSOX/CLE – Paul Byrd had his no-hitter cut short in his last start, in the infamous last-strike game cancellation last week, and that might affect him negatively here. But the real story of this game will again be the weather. The game was moved up to the afternoon because of snow and rain on the horizon, and the game conditions should again be chilly and damp. There should be a lot of quick swings and easy outs, as these players will not be jazzed to be going again in poor weather conditions.

    With totals around 10 or 9.5 at plus odds, there is likely value with the under. White Sox starter John Danks had a solid first start of the season, and he is likely to have another decent start here. Both lineups are admittedly formidable, but in this game, with a total and poor weather conditions, the under is probably a good play.



    TB/MINN – Tampa Bay is slowly but surely maturing as a team, and their solid play on the road so far this year is a testament to that. They have a nice collection of young players with a lot of potential, similar in fact, to Minnesota a few years ago. As such, they probably have value here as a moderate dog.

    Both starting pitchers are suspect, to put it mildly, and exactly how bad each will be today is impossible to predict. But Minnesota’s offense has not been terribly productive, and with so many wild cards involved in this game, getting Tampa Bay at solid underdog odds in what will be a wild and unpredictable game is a decent proposition.



    SD/Dodgers – This is an interesting game and line. The big question for this game is how long Jake Peavey and the San Diego bullpen’s lights out performance will continue. It is not a fluke that they are doing so well; Peavey was very upset and frustrated by his injury-plagued poor season last year, and he is eagerly firing away now, returning to the form he had in previous years.

    Jason Schmidt, on the other hand, is not in top form. He has reportedly lost a bit of life on his fastball, and even though he will still likely be a good pitcher for years to come, there are some small questions as to just what level of effectiveness he will settle into.

    The Dodgers’ lineup is only mediocre, and if Peavey and the bullpen are on their game again, runs will be very hard to come by for L.A. If that is the case, San Diego should be able to cobble together enough for a win against Schmidt and the Dodgers’ bullpen, likely conferring value to San Diego as a small favorite.

  2. #2
    BuddyBear
    Update your status
    BuddyBear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 7,233
    Betpoints: 4805

    what do you think of HOU/PHIL UNDER 9....

  3. #3
    The HG
    The HG's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-06
    Posts: 3,566

    Haven't looked at the game yet because there was no line last night, but I'll post what I find as soon as I do. At first glance though it looks like the line is about right, probably a little value with the under.

  4. #4
    bigboydan
    bigboydan's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 55,425

    I feel that Burnett and the Jays are a solid play today, but theres no way I'd lay that type of wood though.

    Whats your take on that Cubs/Reds game Mr.GanchrowHG?

  5. #5
    The HG
    The HG's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-06
    Posts: 3,566

    Quote Originally Posted by bigboydan View Post

    Whats your take on that Cubs/Reds game Mr.GanchrowHG?

    I think there's a small amount of value in both the under and the Reds. Rich Hill is great, but the Cubs are just not getting it done at all, and Arroyo could easily match him with a good start himself. If this game is 2-2 or 2-1 or something like that after 7, obviously the under is a great bet, and so are the Reds.

  6. #6
    The HG
    The HG's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-06
    Posts: 3,566

    Actually, sorry BBD, I like the Cubs, going to play a small amount on them. Still like the under. Sorry for the change.

  7. #7
    bigboydan
    bigboydan's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 55,425

    No problem Mr.GanchrowHG. I ended up just going with the under in that game myself.

  8. #8
    BuddyBear
    Update your status
    BuddyBear's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 7,233
    Betpoints: 4805

    Thanks Ganch...i played the HOU/PHIL UNDER 9 (-110)....good luck to you today.

  9. #9
    RickySteve
    SBR is a criminal organization
    RickySteve's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-31-06
    Posts: 3,415
    Betpoints: 187

    Quote Originally Posted by Ganchrow HG View Post
    WSOX/CLE –
    ...Both lineups are admittedly formidable
    Chicago's lineup is awful. Second worst offense in the AL.

  10. #10
    tacomax
    SBR Problem Poster 2007-08
    tacomax's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-10-05
    Posts: 9,619
    Betpoints: 1167

    I think that Ganchrow is smarter than Ganchrow HG.

  11. #11
    The HG
    The HG's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-06
    Posts: 3,566

    Quote Originally Posted by tacomax View Post
    I think that Ganchrow is smarter than Ganchrow HG.
    That's what I keep trying to tell everyone! But they're all like "you're so smart you're so smart" and I'm just like ok well whatever. And then they're like "what do you think of this game" and I'm just like "listen, why are you asking me? you should be fading me!" but they're all just like no, no you're smart you're smart. So I guess my attitude is, I will tell people that I'm not that smart, but if after doing that, they still insist I am, then I won't worry about it, I've done my part. But really, people should not be reading my opinions on this stuff, I don't know why they still do.

  12. #12
    The HG
    The HG's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-01-06
    Posts: 3,566

    Quote Originally Posted by BuddyBear View Post
    what do you think of HOU/PHIL UNDER 9....
    Looking into it further I don't like the under much BuddyBear, it's very much a no-play for me, but I hope you cash.

Top