[posey]

Well, it seems like it isn't lol.

I was bored so I played a little bit around with Excel and used the following stats to calculate my own odds:
- away/home SP WHIP L30d (or last 4 starts) (I typed in a WHIP of '1.110' as '110', all the other WHIP numbers were treated equally)
- away/home SP WHIP in away/home games
- away/home SP WHIP overall
- away/home BP WHIP L7d
- away/home BP WHIP L30d
- away/home team wRC+ L7d
- away/home team wRC+ L30d
(I didn't use any other stats!)

Next steps:
- divided both numbers for the respective stat (for WHIP numbers: home stat/away stat; for wRC+ numbers: away stat/home stat)
- sumed up the results for the SPs and weighed them differently (1,1 times: WHIP L30d and WHIP overall, 0,8 times: WHIP away/home games), added them together and divided them by 3
- sumed up the results for the BPs and divided them by 2
- sumed up the results for the offense and weighed them differently (1,2 times: wRC+ L7d, 0,8 times: wRC+ L30d) and divided them by 3
>> Now I had 3 results: SP WHIP, BP WHIP, wRC+

After that:
- sumed up the mentioned 3 results, weighed them differently and divided them: ((12*SP WHIP result)+(6*BP WHIP result)+(9*wRC+ result))/27
>> Now I had a calculated interim result. If it was smaller than 1.00 it would mean that the home team is favored by the calculations, if it was bigger than 1.00 it would mean that the away team is favored by the calculations.

Then:
- since the numbers were very close together I divided the interim result by 1.075 if it was smaller than 1.00, or multiplied it with 1.075 if it was bigger than 1.00
>> Now I had a calculated and adjusted end result which I used to calculate my odds.

NOTE:
I only used the games from today which feature 2 starters with at least a few starts this season. This means that I didn't include the following games:
- NYY @ BAL because of NYY SP Greene
- STL @ MIL because of MIL SP Nelson
- LAA @ TEX because of TEX SP Mikolas
All the other games were calculated.

After that:
- I took the end result and made the following calculation for the away team to calculate the odds for the away team: 2 + (1-end result)
- this has two possible consequences: 1) if the home team is favored, the away team's odd would be bigger than 2.00 or 2) if the away team is favored, the away team's odd would be smaller than 2.00
- I took the odd from the away and calculated the odd for the home team via: 4 - (odd for away team)
- this has two possible consequenes: 1) if the away team was a dog with an odd bigger than 2.00, the home team's odd would be smaller than 2.00, making it a fav or 2) if the away team was favored with an odd smaller than 2.00, the home team's odd would be bigger than 2.00, making it a dog.
>> Now I have the odds for the away and home teams.

Next step:
- I calculated the implied odds for both the home and away team
>> Now I have the chance in percent for the away/home team winning this particular game.

Last steps:
- I looked at the current Pinnaclesports.com odds for the ML of both teams and added them
- I calculated the implied odds of Pinnaclesports.com for both the home and away team to see what chance (in percent) Pinnacle gave both teams to win the game

Final steps:
- I substracted the calculated chance for a team from the Pinnaclesports.com chance for a team
>> Now I had a possible 'value', which is very important in sportsbetting as we alle know.

Here you see the results (notice that these odds are decimal, if you want to convert them into american odds please use this converter: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/bett...dds-converter/). The odds for the empty games weren't released yet. Look at how close most calculated ('C') odds/chances are to the Pinnaclesports.com ('P') odds/chances ('V' = 'Value'):

A	ASP	H	HSP	C Odd A	C Odd H	C Chance A	C Chance H	P Odd A	P Odd H	P Chance A	P Chance H	V A	V H
CHS	Carroll	IND	McAllister	2,19	1,81	0,46	0,55	2,58	1,58	0,39	0,63	0,07	-0,08
ARI	Miley	SFG	Vogelsong	2,11	1,89	0,47	0,53	2,10	1,84	0,48	0,54	0,00	-0,01
ATL	Minor	CHC	Jackson	1,82	2,18	0,55	0,46	1,83	2,11	0,55	0,47	0,00	-0,02
BOS	Peavy	HOU	Oberholtzer	2,12	1,88	0,47	0,53	1,91	2,00	0,52	0,5	-0,05	0,03
MIA	Koehler	NYM	Matsuzaka	2,10	1,90	0,48	0,53	2,13	1,82	0,47	0,55	0,01	-0,02
MIN	Correia	COL	Matzek	1,80	2,20	0,56	0,45	2,31	1,70	0,43	0,59	0,12	-0,13
TOR	Hutchison	TBR	Odorizzi	2,10	1,90	0,48	0,53	2,16	1,78	0,46	0,56	0,01	-0,04
DET	Porcello	KCR	Shields	1,76	2,24	0,57	0,45	2,08	1,85	0,48	0,54	0,09	-0,09
PIT	Morton	CIN	Leake	1,91	2,09	0,52	0,48	2,00	1,93	0,50	0,52	0,02	-0,04
WSH	Strasburg	PHI	Hammels	2,07	1,93	0,48	0,52	1,78	2,18	0,56	0,46	-0,08	0,06
OAK	Chavez	SEA	Iwakuma	1,89	2,11	0,53	0,47	2,01	1,92	0,50	0,52	0,03	-0,05
SDP	Kennedy	LAD	Maholm	1,78	2,22	0,56	0,45	1,96	1,96	0,51	0,51	0,05	-0,06

[44 Mag]

Nice work. think you have too much time on your hands.

[posey]

Thx, but...nah, it took me not more than about 2 hours lol.

I think I'll do a little experiment. Since I have set up the formulas and saved them in Excel I can type in the stats for every upcoming day within a few minutes each day.

I 'will bet' every ML with a calculated value of at least 0.05 (= +5%), but only if the ML odd at pinnacle is smaller than 2.35, on paper. Let's see what happens. I don't expect much but I can use it as something like a tracker hehe.


All bets flat stake, 1 unit each:

12-JUL
MIN ML 2.31 (V +12%)
DET ML 2.08 (V +9%)
PHI ML 2.18 (V +6%)

It's possible that I will add more when the missing lines have been released.

[posey]

Added the missing games in the upper table, since Pinnaclesports has released the missing odds. Both the TOR/TBR and BOS/HOU game odds again quite close to my calculated odds.

So I am adding a lost one:

SDP ML 1.96 (V +5%)

[posey]

Lulz, another 10 minutes and I was able to calculate the totals for the games with the stats from above. Now it's getting rediculous.
I sumed up all the WHIPs and wRC+ numbers for the away and home teams and divided them by 7 (since there are 7 numbers). Stats were weighed differently (SP more important than BP since SP pitch longer).
After that I sumed up those two results for an overall result, divided it by 2 first to get the average and then divided it by 15,5 to convert it in smaller numbers.
Next step was multiplying the converted results with the ballpark factor (ESPN) for a final calculated game total.
Then I looked at Pinnaclesports and extracted the totals for all games.
Finally I subtracted my calculated total the Pinnaclesports total for possible value plays. If the number was smaller it would mean the under would be the play, if the number was bigger it would mean the over would be the play.

Again, look at how close most calculations come to the Pinnaclesports totals.

A	ASP	H	HSP	C Tot A	C Tot H	C Tot Ovl	C Tot Conv	BPF	C Tot Res	P Tot	V Tot
CHS	Carroll	IND	McAllister	123,93	137,20	130,56	8,42	1,02	8,59	8,50	0,09
ARI	Miley	SFG	Vogelsong	107,61	112,30	109,96	7,09	0,93	6,60	7,00	-0,40
ATL	Minor	CHC	Jackson	141,43	128,09	134,76	8,69	0,94	8,17	8,50	-0,33
BOS	Peavy	HOU	Oberholtzer	136,05	140,05	138,05	8,91	1,03	9,17	8,50	0,67
MIA	Koehler	NYM	Matsuzaka	124,82	129,66	127,24	8,21	0,84	6,90	7,50	-0,60
MIN	Correia	COL	Matzek	137,46	120,88	129,17	8,33	1,35	11,25	10,50	0,75
TOR	Hutchison	TBR	Odorizzi	126,04	130,32	128,18	8,27	1,03	8,52	7,50	1,02
DET	Porcello	KCR	Shields	135,20	120,30	127,75	8,24	0,99	8,16	8,00	0,16
PIT	Morton	CIN	Leake	121,27	119,39	120,33	7,76	1,03	8,00	7,50	0,50
WSH	Strasburg	PHI	Hammels	112,13	117,66	114,89	7,41	0,84	6,23	7,00	-0,77
OAK	Chavez	SEA	Iwakuma	106,34	114,98	110,66	7,14	0,86	6,14	7,00	-0,86
SDP	Kennedy	LAD	Maholm	145,21	124,66	134,94	8,71	0,93	8,10	7,50	0,60

The funny thing is that all those 'Values' aren't too far from reality. What do you think?

[posey]

To complete my funny experiment I will 'play' every total which is off for at least +- 0.70 if the respective odd is at least 1.90 or bigger.

So this makes the following 'bets' for today:

12-JUL

MLs:
MIN ML 2.31 (V +12%)
DET ML 2.08 (V +9%)
PHI ML 2.18 (V +6%)
SDP ML 1.96 (V +5%)

Totals:
TOR @ TBR o 7.5 2.11 (V +1.02)
WSH @ PHI u 7 1.952 (V -0.77)
OAK @ SEA u 7 1.925 (V -0.86)

[CatHawk]

Cool...

[GrandSalamiFTW]

good luck! hope your time and effort pays off!

[gamblingisfun]

Sucks that this would be really hard to backtest, unless you have access to L7 and L30 of each day in the past for what they would have been.

[Amadeo-Picks]

I like the plays , Toronto and Tampa to go over . And the philly ml

[posey]

Yeah, too bad a backtest is more or less impossible or too time consuming.

As I watched the CHS @ IND game yesterday (the game was only in the 1st inning still), I asked myself why I had set the upper boarder for playable ML odds to 2.35. Somehow it made no sense to me, it was more or less random lol.

In fact CHS (2.58/+0.07) was a big value play yesterday. Since it is only an experiment which I play on paper first, I feel free to add this game to my chart from yesterday.

12-JUL

MLs:
CHS ML 2.58 (V +7%) W +1.58
MIN ML 2.31 (V +12%) W +1.31
DET ML 2.08 (V +9%) W +1.08
PHI ML 2.18 (V +6%) L -1
SDP ML 1.96 (V +5%) L -1

Totals:
TOR @ TBR o 7.5 2.11 (V +1.02) W +1.11
WSH @ PHI u 7 1.952 (V -0.77) L -1
OAK @ SEA u 7 1.925 (V -0.86) L -1

First day: 4-4-0, +1.08
MLs: 3-2-0, +1.97
Totals: 1-2-0, -0.89

Picks for today will follow when the odds/totals have been released and the stats are updated. I will include a table like yesterday.

[posey]

Complete overview for today (lines/totals for NYY/BAL, TOR/TBR, ARI/SFG are missing right now, as well as the total for ATL/CHC). 'Value plays' are bold and green:

Date	A	ASP	H	HSP	ASP WHIP L30d	HSP WHIP L30d	C	ASP WHIP A	HSP WHIP H	C	ASP WHIP OVL	HSP WHIP OVL	C	ABP WHIP L7d	HBP WHIP L7d	C	ABP WHIP L30d	HBP WHIP L30d	C	AOFF wRC+ L7d	HOFF wRC+ L7d	C	AOFF wRC+ L30d	HOFF wRC+ L30d	C	C Res	C Res Adj	C Odd A	C Odd H	C Chance A	C Chance H	P Odd A	P Odd H	P Chance A	P Chance H	V A	V H	C Tot A	C Tot H	C Tot Ovl	C Tot Conv	BPF	C Tot Res	P Tot	V Tot
13-Jul	CHS	Danks	CLE	Bauer	153	148	0,97	112	129	1,15	138	139	1,01	131	85	0,65	145	119	0,82	100	128	0,78	88	99	0,89	0,90	0,83	2,17	1,83	0,46	0,55	2,46	1,63	0,41	0,61	0,06	-0,07	123,52	135,16	129,34	8,34	1,01	8,43	9,0	-0,57
	MIA	Hand	NYM	deGrom	159	150	0,94	168	124	0,74	173	137	0,79	153	147	0,96	129	119	0,92	87	133	0,65	81	110	0,74	0,81	0,75	2,25	1,75	0,44	0,57	2,23	1,75	0,45	0,57	0,00	0,00	126,59	154,14	140,37	9,06	0,85	7,70	8,0	-0,30
	PIT	Liriano	CIN	Cueto	145	118	0,81	120	77	0,64	145	88	0,61	150	109	0,73	151	130	0,86	106	121	0,88	104	103	1,01	0,79	0,74	2,26	1,74	0,44	0,58	2,34	1,69	0,43	0,59	0,01	-0,02	107,07	138,36	122,71	7,92	1,04	8,23	7,0	1,23
	WSH	Roark	PHI	Kendrick	159	140	0,88	115	141	1,23	117	137	1,17	129	86	0,67	118	113	0,96	84	87	0,97	84	73	1,15	1,01	1,08	1,92	2,08	0,52	0,48	1,76	2,22	0,57	0,45	-0,05	0,03	119,88	119,96	119,92	7,74	0,84	6,50	9,0	-2,50
	BOS	Buchholz	HOU	Peacock	87	139	1,60	171	156	0,91	166	148	0,89	157	115	0,73	140	150	1,07	81	145	0,56	81	89	0,91	0,95	0,88	2,12	1,88	0,47	0,53	1,79	2,17	0,56	0,46	-0,09	0,07	130,20	139,38	134,79	8,70	1,02	8,87	9,0	-0,13
	DET	Verlander	KCR	Chen	139	181	1,30	135	159	1,18	148	181	1,22	109	148	1,36	140	135	0,96	144	97	1,48	130	108	1,20	1,27	1,36	1,64	2,36	0,61	0,42	1,77	2,19	0,56	0,46	0,05	-0,03	163,29	131,63	147,46	9,51	0,99	9,42	8,5	0,92
	STL	Martinez	MIL	Peralta	144	165	1,15	141	133	0,94	144	134	0,93	127	138	1,09	111	131	1,18	134	69	1,94	104	101	1,03	1,23	1,32	1,68	2,32	0,60	0,43	2,08	1,85	0,48	0,54	0,11	-0,11	140,55	126,50	133,53	8,61	0,93	8,01	8,5	-0,49
	ATL	Teheran	CHC	Wood	121	162	1,34	126	119	0,94	103	148	1,44	122	146	1,20	111	131	1,18	71	97	0,73	88	86	1,02	1,11	1,19	1,81	2,19	0,55	0,46	1,72	2,27	0,58	0,44	-0,03	0,02	130,29	113,11	121,70	7,85	0,97	7,62
	OAK	Gray	SEA	Young	123	75	0,61	104	98	0,94	119	110	0,92	119	98	0,82	110	95	0,86	98	67	1,46	98	95	1,03	0,98	0,91	2,09	1,91	0,48	0,52	1,68	2,35	0,60	0,43	-0,12	0,10	99,02	110,07	104,54	6,74	0,87	5,87	7,5	-1,63
	SDP	Ross	LAD	Ryu	104	134	1,29	152	140	0,92	119	129	1,08	154	145	0,94	104	122	1,17	95	87	1,09	70	111	0,63	1,03	1,11	1,89	2,11	0,53	0,47	2,40	1,66	0,42	0,60	0,11	-0,13	123,84	121,45	122,64	7,91	0,92	7,28	7,0	0,28

[posey]

I will start to 'play' every calculated value play, regardless of the odd. (Up there you will see that DET ML has a value of +0.05 but it's no play. That's because the number is rounded in Excel and in reality it's only a 0.49. I only play value plays of 0.05 or bigger. With Excel it's quite easy to make such filters.)

Plays 13-JUL

MLs:
CHS @ IND 2.46 (+0.06)
BOS @ HOU 2.17 (+0.07)
STL @ MIL 2.08 (+0.11)
OAK @ SEA 2.35 (+0.10)
SDP @ LAD 2.40 (+0.11)
TOR @ TBR 2.65 (+0.08)
ARI @ SFG 2.64 (+0.14)

Totals:
PIT @ CIN o 7 1.95 (+1.23)
WSH @ PHI u 8 1.86 (-2.50)
DET @ KCR o 8.5 2.00 (+0.92)
OAK @ SEA u 7.5 1.833 (-1.63)
NYY @ BAL u 8 2.02 (-0.94)
TOR @ TBR o 6.5 1.952 (+1.87)

EDIT:
Pinnacle says that Cosart starts for Houston. But the calculation from above is based on Peacock. If Cosart indeed does start I will kick out this plays.

EDIT2:
Last plays added.