1. #1
    posey
    posey's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-23-14
    Posts: 1,112
    Betpoints: 1250

    A chase system which would be up 44 units this season

    Rules
    - go to killersports and look for dogs with a line of at least +100 which has the 'best' ML odds for the certain day
    - if 2 or more teams have similar 'best' odds, pick the team whose opponent has the worse overall record
    - chase the best dog, which means you have to select a new team every day, no matter who is pitching, no matter who is playing, no matter who is the scheduled umpire, and so on

    This season one would have needed not more than 4 stages and one would have gone 44-0 this year. One could even make a possible 5 game chase out of it and make it a little bit safer.

    The chases would have been over after
    - stage 1: 18 times (41%)
    - stage 2: 13 times (30%)
    - stage 3: 6 times (13%)
    - stage 4: 7 times (16%)
    This shows us than in more than 71% the chases would have ended within stage 1 or 2.

    I haven't backtested it for previous years but can't imagine it doing really worse. I would suggest using 5 stages at the most:
    - stage 1: 1 u
    - stage 2: 2 u
    - stage 3: 4 u
    - stage 4: 8 u
    - stage 5: 16 u

    So even if we would run into a hypothetical 5 stage loss we would still be up 13 units after it.

  2. #2
    morri1962
    morri1962's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-21-09
    Posts: 48
    Betpoints: 3236

    give us your system plays

  3. #3
    Snake24
    Snake24's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-14-14
    Posts: 2,366
    Betpoints: 7076

    pay me some respect...

    I handed out candy to yall tonight. Do I gotta come down the chimney

  4. #4
    posey
    posey's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-23-14
    Posts: 1,112
    Betpoints: 1250

    Oh yeah, please come down, but please clean up yourself after it.

    I am starting today.

    14-07-01
    (A) STL (ML) @ SFG +110

  5. #5
    yojamminj
    yojamminj's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-28-14
    Posts: 87
    Betpoints: 277

    thanks for the play. GL

  6. #6
    thatwilldo
    thatwilldo's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-04-14
    Posts: 10
    Betpoints: 420

    What do you mean by "best" ML odds?

  7. #7
    posey
    posey's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-23-14
    Posts: 1,112
    Betpoints: 1250

    Well, if you have five Dogs, their line may be:
    - +105
    - +110
    - +135
    - +170
    - +190
    The 'best' line in my case would be the +105.

  8. #8
    posey
    posey's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-23-14
    Posts: 1,112
    Betpoints: 1250

    Giants won, so second tier today.

    14-07-02
    (B = 2 units) MIL (ML) @ TOR +103

Top