1. #1
    mgoncalves10
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    Monday Picks - From Baseball to World Cup Action

    Hopefully the Red Sox hold on and finish off a very impressive week for me. With a Red Sox W, I will finish the week at +855, with a record of 51-41-7. So here comes a new week, and some new challenges, so let's start the week off making some early cash.

    World Cup action has been my bread and butter. On Monday, we got France - Nigeria and Algeria - Germany..

    France is a -1 favorite at the price of -135. If you take them ML you can get it right now at -220. To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised to see that price go up before the match kicks off tomorrow. This French squad has quite possibly the best midfield of all the teams in the tournament. Matuidi, Mavuba, Valbuena, Pogba, Sissoko, Griezzman, Cabaye and Schneiderlin. Offensively, they have Benzema who is having a good tournament, as well as Olivier Giroud and Remy. With that said, they have a lot off offensive options, while defensively, they are solid as well.

    Nigeria on the other hand is not all that great, and had Bosnia not had a clean goal disallowed, the Nigerian's would have probably already been home. Their main players are Mikel, who isn't all that great in my opinion, and Emineke up top. Their goalkeeper Enyeama is all one of the main figures in the squad, and he should be VERY busy on Monday. He plays in the French League, so he will also be familiar with most of these players. While they are quick and athletic, when it comes to footballing ability, they are in a clear mismatch with the French.

    This French squad came under serious fire having had to go through a play-off against Ukraine to get through to the tournament. But since that, they have looked very confident in this tournament. They move the ball well, and they tend to create a lot of opportunities.

    I don't see Nigeria holding them down. The spread (-1) at -135 looks like a good option, and I will also play the ML in a parlay.

    As for props in this game, I like 2 or 3 goals at +100, France to score first at -275. Once it gets closer to game time, I'll post my final picks for this game...


    In regards to Baseball picks, at a quick glance, I'm thinking: Red Sox, Angels, Possibly Tigers... Royals..

    Share your thoughts, and let's make some $$

  2. #2
    farmhouse1
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    Why Red Sox bro? I'm leaning cubs right now. I really like this arrieta pitcher going for the cubs tomorrow also cubs have won the first game in their last couple of series.. I mean Red Sox are still averaging like 3 runs a game right now and they did light up chase Whitley but that guy is a scrub and jake arrieta will be much tougher for boston to hit.. Jake peavey is a fade pitcher for me. I've faded him in his last 2 starts and it's paid off wonderfully. He's also on a five game losing streak..

  3. #3
    mgoncalves10
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    Quote Originally Posted by farmhouse1 View Post
    Why Red Sox bro? I'm leaning cubs right now. I really like this arrieta pitcher going for the cubs tomorrow also cubs have won the first game in their last couple of series.. I mean Red Sox are still averaging like 3 runs a game right now and they did light up chase Whitley but that guy is a scrub and jake arrieta will be much tougher for boston to hit.. Jake peavey is a fade pitcher for me. I've faded him in his last 2 starts and it's paid off wonderfully. He's also on a five game losing streak..
    I'm just basing it off of what both sides can bring to the table offensively. I will have to do some research tomorrow but at a first glance that was my thought. And yea Peavey is very hard to cap, and like you said, more often than not, lately he's been a good fade. If the sox hold on tonight, 2 wins in the Bronx will give them some confidence heading back home against a cubs team isn't the greatest offensively.

    They are 4-6 in their last 10, which were all at home. 5-5 in their last 10 away from Wrigley.

    Once I so some more research I'll share my thoughts.

  4. #4
    farmhouse1
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    What do you think about the reds against the padrs. Reds coming off a 4 game sweep of the giants and matt Latos pretty good pitcher. Maybe the under cause this Hahn guy for the padre is pretty good and reds seem to not score in a consistent bases as long as you keep them from having a big inning. Think Hahn is a capable pitcher especially after watching his last 2 starts.. Thinking orioles team total over against Saunders for texas who I think is terrible and Rockies team total under against Jordan Zimmerman who's been really good lately. Also leaning tampa bay rays with archer against the yankees. Really like angels team total over against hector noessi of the white sox who is really bad.

  5. #5
    farmhouse1
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    Yeah that's interesting but the cubs offense did show some life in the nationals series except when they faced a really good pitcher in gio Gonzalez. They managed to put runs up on fister & Roark who are much better pitchers in my opinion than jake peavy.
    Quote Originally Posted by mgoncalves10 View Post
    I'm just basing it off of what both sides can bring to the table offensively. I will have to do some research tomorrow but at a first glance that was my thought. And yea Peavey is very hard to cap, and like you said, more often than not, lately he's been a good fade. If the sox hold on tonight, 2 wins in the Bronx will give them some confidence heading back home against a cubs team isn't the greatest offensively.

    They are 4-6 in their last 10, which were all at home. 5-5 in their last 10 away from Wrigley.

    Once I so some more research I'll share my thoughts.

  6. #6
    farmhouse1
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    Hey man what you think about USA vs Belgium. You say you know soccer very well. I've been backing Belgium in their 3 games through their group stage and they're undefeated for me but they did play some real weak competition. To me Belgium looks like a team with a lot of talent but don't coexist well on the field. They often look lost on offense but their defense and goalie have been great so far. USA is not bad in my opinion and if Belgium keeps playing like they have then USA winning wouldn't surprise me. But I feel like this is defensive grind out game and am leaning under 2 goals right now thinking the winner wins 1-0. Belgium have been scoring their goals very late into games and USA has Tim Howard one of the best goalies.

  7. #7
    mgoncalves10
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    Quote Originally Posted by farmhouse1 View Post
    Hey man what you think about USA vs Belgium. You say you know soccer very well. I've been backing Belgium in their 3 games through their group stage and they're undefeated for me but they did play some real weak competition. To me Belgium looks like a team with a lot of talent but don't coexist well on the field. They often look lost on offense but their defense and goalie have been great so far. USA is not bad in my opinion and if Belgium keeps playing like they have then USA winning wouldn't surprise me. But I feel like this is defensive grind out game and am leaning under 2 goals right now thinking the winner wins 1-0. Belgium have been scoring their goals very late into games and USA has Tim Howard one of the best goalies.
    The USMNT has exceeded all expectations already. No one expected them to come out of the group, but some how, some way, they did it. When Klinsmann announced his 23-man squad, American analysts crucified him for not taking Landon Donovan. He has already shut them up, and he now will try to overcome a Belgian side that is at the beginning of their golden generation.

    Belgium is a young squad with loads of talent, but it seems like they haven't really put it together yet. But nonetheless, even not playing all that well, they won all three matches. Will the same happen against the US?

    I think the US has a serious chance of an upset here. I'll have more of an opinion tomorrow morning, or even tonight, but from a Belgium perspective, Vincent Kompany, who is their captain and best defender looks to be out of this match with a groin injury which is a HUGE blow. Thomas Vermaelen is struggling with a hamstring injury and he too could be out, along with a right back that has a fractured fibula. So if that's the case, Belgium's back four will be put to the test against most likely Clint Dempsey. Jozy Altidore may be available off the bench, but he will more than likely only come on in a must need situation.

    Could this match go under the total? Possible. But like I said I will have to take a look at all the scenarios and deciding details tonight or early tomorrow morning to give you a better opinion. But as of right now, I do think Belgium has enough firepower on the offensive side of the ball to win this match, but defensively, they could be vulnerable.

  8. #8
    RollinDo
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    Quote Originally Posted by farmhouse1 View Post
    What do you think about the reds against the padrs. Reds coming off a 4 game sweep of the giants and matt Latos pretty good pitcher. Maybe the under cause this Hahn guy for the padre is pretty good and reds seem to not score in a consistent bases as long as you keep them from having a big inning. Think Hahn is a capable pitcher especially after watching his last 2 starts.. Thinking orioles team total over against Saunders for texas who I think is terrible and Rockies team total under against Jordan Zimmerman who's been really good lately. Also leaning tampa bay rays with archer against the yankees. Really like angels team total over against hector noessi of the white sox who is really bad.
    I like the Reds - Padres Under, but Vegas caught on and I am nobly a fan of the 6.5 Total...probably because I'm 0-4 in those this year...but I passes up on the Cards - Dodgers Under 6 5 with Waino and Beckett from that logic and missed out...though I got the No Score 1st Prop.
    This is my POD today...Under in SD...like the U see in Boston too.

    Let's get some talk about sides and 1st Inning No Score props for a couple games.

    Right now I like Angels and Tigers for sides.

  9. #9
    Snake24
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    Need to check Angels rosters as players may get some rest. I like Reds/Padres under. Dodgers ML looks pretty tempting for the price. It seems like their pitching and bats were on the same page in the Cards series. Indians do not impress me at all.

  10. #10
    RollinDo
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snake24 View Post
    Need to check Angels rosters as players may get some rest. I like Reds/Padres under. Dodgers ML looks pretty tempting for the price. It seems like their pitching and bats were on the same page in the Cards series. Indians do not impress me at all.
    Tough to go against Ace of Indians and back the worst pitcher in Dodgers rotation.

  11. #11
    RollinDo
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    No Score 1st (TB-NY)???

  12. #12
    mgoncalves10
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    For the Nigeria - France match:

    - France (-1)
    - 2 or 3 Goals

    I'm also going to take the France ML (-240) which was at -220 last night, in a parlay..

  13. #13
    mgoncalves10
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    After taking a look at the game between the Cubs and Red Sox, my lean is with the home side. The Cubs had Sunday off, while the Sox played a Sunday Night Baseball game at Yankee Stadium. The game got over at around 11:30, I'm assuming they flew back into Boston, so they were probably at Logan around 2-3am. Game starts tonight at 7:10 EST. Could there be fatigue? It's possible... As for the pitchers, Arrieta is obviously on a better run, but his numbers against the Red Sox aren't all that impressive. 0-3, 6.00 ERA since 2011, and at Fenway park since 2011, he's 0-1 with a 7.15 ERA. These numbers wouldn't have been all that horrifying about a week ago when the Red Sox couldn't hit a beach ball, but they just took two from the Yankees in the Bronx, and last night, they were hitting the ball well. Now they come home for a long homestand, and go up against Arrieta, who the Sox are hitting at a .407 BA in 54 at bats.

    Jake Peavy hasn't been great this season either, 1-6, 4.93 ERA. He got lit up his last time out in Seattle, but despite the Cubs tagging him with a .304 BA in 56 at bats, I would think this is a favorable matchup for him. Since 2011, he's 2-2, 3.65 ERA against the Cubbies.

    Had the Sox not been swinging the bat well the last two games, I'd probably stay away here, but I think after putting up some runs this weekend, Ortiz & Pedroia get it done tonight at Fenway Park.. ML -160

  14. #14
    farmhouse1
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    No score 1st inning reds/padres. What you think?

  15. #15
    RollinDo
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    Quote Originally Posted by farmhouse1 View Post
    No score 1st inning reds/padres. What you think?
    Good one.
    I took Under 7 instead though.

    My other 2 favorites for No Score 1st are: (in that order)
    Sea-Hou
    TB - Yanks

  16. #16
    mgoncalves10
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    I hope you all followed me on the France bets..

    France wins 2-0..

    France (-1) - WIN
    France Win/Under 2.5 (LIVE BET) - WIN
    2/3 Goals - WIN

    3 for 3.. +$82.00 to start the day..

  17. #17
    RollinDo
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    Man. I have watched 1 soccer match the last 7 years...I know you know your futbol, but no way am I tailing for a sport I am clueless in.
    Nice hits!!!

  18. #18
    mgoncalves10
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    Quote Originally Posted by RollinDo View Post
    Man. I have watched 1 soccer match the last 7 years...I know you know your futbol, but no way am I tailing for a sport I am clueless in.
    Nice hits!!!
    Haha fair enough..

    For tonight, I'm looking at:

    - Angels (ML)
    - Red Sox (ML)

    Looking into others right now..

  19. #19
    mgoncalves10
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    Just took a look at the numbers for the Rangers/Orioles game. Saunders has been struggling, although against the Orioles, he has decent numbers. 0-0, 3.00 ERA this season, and since 2011, 2-0, 2.40 ERA. Not all that bad for a pitcher who's struggled this season (0-4, 5.19). Whether it's against right handed batters (.349) or left (.375) he can't seem to fool any of them. Jimenez on the other hand has had his rough patches, but he's also been victim of silent bats from the O's. At home, he's 0-6, 6.28 ERA, so could today be his first WIN at Camden Yards?

    Well he's held the TEX bats to a .189 BA in 175 at bats, so that says something.. As for Saunders, they've tagged him with a .286 BA in 175 at bats as well.

    Tex has gone 5-10 in their last 15, and they are coming off a 3-2 defeat to the Twins on Sunday. The O's are 8-7 in their last 15, and they just lost 3 of 4 at home against the last placed Rays. With that said, I'm thinking the O's can put together enough hits to get Jimenez his first W at home against Joe Saunders..

    ML -141

  20. #20
    mgoncalves10
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    Thinking of taking no score first for both late games. Also, Dodgers ML..

    Thoughts?

  21. #21
    Legend_beatz
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    I like the Dodger play. How you doing so far tonight bud?

  22. #22
    mgoncalves10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Legend_beatz View Post
    I like the Dodger play. How you doing so far tonight bud?
    Been fine so far. Up $20 so far. Hit Orioles, lost Red Sox.

    Pending:

    - Dodgers (ML)
    - Dodgers (First Five +0.5)
    - A's/Tigers (U9), Braves, Rays (+1.5)

    How you doing?

  23. #23
    mgoncalves10
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    Wow!! You've got to be kidding me haha

    4-1 bottom of the 9th, tigers hit a grand slam and push the U9 in my parlay! WTF!!!

  24. #24
    RollinDo
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    Yeah. That was a tough push...should have gone with Under 5 1st 5 like I planned.

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