[stevenash]

"Don't mess with a winning streak"
-Crash Davis

Biggest series of the year so far in the majors.
KC charges to 1.5 games back of division leader Tigers.

Three game set begins tonight in Detroit, Royals face Verlander tonight, and Mad Max on Tuesday.
Win both, they take the division lead and makes a lot of people take notice.
KC counters with Vargas tonight and pits Ace Ventura agains Max tommorrow.


Reasons to back KC

1) KC is the hottest team in the majors, sweeping Cleveland at home and the White Sox on the road, currently riding a seven game win streak.

2) I dont know who he is nowadays, but Verlander is not Verlander.
But almost every power pitcher does not have a shelf life of nine years, and Justin is in his ninth year, and like Mussina, Maddux and all the other great pitchers of days gone by, needs to re-invent himself.

Spin it any way you want 1.51 for a WH/IP and 4.61 for an ERA are just terrible, awful numbers.
Even his strikeouts are way down, and he's facing a line up that may be underachieving in the power numbers, are one of the best contact teams in the majors and lead the majors in fewest times struck out (387) and it's not evem close, every other team has struck out over 400 times.

3) Butler flat out owns Verlander Billy is 32 for 74 lifetime versus JV that's .432, OBA of .492
That's half the time Butler faces Verlander, he gets on base. He also has two taters off of Verlander too.

Sal Perez is 12 for 27 .444
Alex Gordon has taken him deep twice too.

The middle of the order has done and can do damage against JV

4) KC Jason Vargas has emerged as one of the better LH starting pitchers in the American League.
Going into tonight he's 6-2, with a tidy 1.21 WH/IP and a very nice 3.30 ERA.

67 strike outs is good 23 walks in almost 100 innings is betterm that's about 2 a game, and you can't be walking Tiger batters.

Must keep Kinsler (who is hot right now) and has hit Vargas in the past off the bases and Miggy in the yard.
If successful, he wins this game. Rest of the Tiger line up he's fine with history shows.


5) KC is over .500 on the road. (18-16)
Tigers are 13th out of 15 American League teams versus lefties.
They have only scored 62 runs off of southpaws.

I hate to drop the 'v' word here, but there is a lot of value in KC tonight, even if they don't cash it's still the correct wager here.

I'm getting +133 (as of 9:30am) on a white hot team, against a declining power pitcher, with a solid lefty whose team is better than .500 on the road, against a team that struggles against LHP this season.

Buyer beware.

Even though I like the Royals tonight, and will back them at +133, 3 gets you 4 and I like those numbers, it's still Verlander, no matter how much he slipped, and the Tiger line up can rake with V-Mart, and Kinsler, and Miggy.....
My point being, it's not automatic, but I like the +133 here

[RavensFan2k3]

Very nice write up, I like it

[RollinDo]

Looks like a coin flip.
I think Tigers take it, but not going to lay juice.
Tigers have dominated in division play, though this year a bit down.
I think Tigers coming back to life too and realize importance of this game in keeping 1st place.
Not a bad play to take Royals though a s a dog.
Will back them tomorrow with Scherzer regardless.

[jjgold]

KC playing well and Verlander arm is shot

[44 Mag]

KC playing well and Verlander arm is shot

Take the over 8.5. Verlander looks cooked last two years. His ERA is already 4.60, and he got shelled last time out. BOL

[no1here]

gonna be at the game tonight and believe best betis the over

[Bostongambler]

Nice write up indeed.

[robph3333]

Made a lot of money following the Jays on their last streak. I say follow the heat to the cash!

[stevenash]

Made a lot of money following the Jays on their last streak. I say follow the heat to the cash!

Been on them four times, tonight will be fifth, tomorrows game is scary though

[No coincidences]

Royals have a better overall team than the Tigers. Period.

They don't have a Cabrera-level star, but they also don't have the number of holes the Tigers do.

JV is pussy-whipped on Kate Upton.

[mcdonae101]

Royals and over, don't think u can lose both

[wikkidinsane]

Yes.. Barring any significant injuries and lineup changes- i will be pulling the trigger on the royals

[t-wizzle]

I took KC.

[robph3333]

The big V is a tad inverted these days. Go Royals!

[Big Bear]

Royals have a better overall team than the Tigers. Period.

They don't have a Cabrera-level star, but they also don't have the number of holes the Tigers do.

JV is pussy-whipped on Kate Upton.

Verlander sucks indeed.

Royals don't have much power though.

[TheCentaur]

I love the Royals here to

Watch Verlander come out and pitch a no hitter now

[Big Bear]

I love the Royals here to

Watch Verlander come out and pitch a no hitter now

Verlander sucks man his velocity is down and he can't hit his spots.

[stevenash]

Royals don't have much power though.

Actually they do, they just aren't hitting the ball over the fence.

Know this, Hosmer is one of the strongest guys in the league, he's just not parking them out though.
Very strange.

Same with Billy Butler, yeah he's got a gut, but he's a bull too.

Gordon is not as strong, but is a power hitter if that makes sense.
He's got those wrists.

[Ratpack]

gl hopefully vargas pitching well tonight but the tigers own him.

[stevenash]

gl hopefully vargas pitching well tonight but the tigers own him.

Kinsler, and he's been raking lately.
Red hot - five for his last ten.

[BayArea888]

Actually they do, they just aren't hitting the ball over the fence.

Know this, Hosmer is one of the strongest guys in the league, he's just not parking them out though.
Very strange.

Same with Billy Butler, yeah he's got a gut, but he's a bull too.

Gordon is not as strong, but is a power hitter if that makes sense.
He's got those wrists.

I agree. Royals can hit. However, I think the key to the game will be the bullpen. KC's bats against the Detroit bullpen has a significant advantage than the other way around...

[Big Bear]

Actually they do, they just aren't hitting the ball over the fence.

Know this, Hosmer is one of the strongest guys in the league, he's just not parking them out though.
Very strange.

Same with Billy Butler, yeah he's got a gut, but he's a bull too.

Gordon is not as strong, but is a power hitter if that makes sense.
He's got those wrists.

I guess i should have said they are not a home run hitting team.

Lots of doubles guys.

[Reck]

Thanks for the great write up...Feels like the biggest Royals game in years... I too am on the Royals...

[Big Bear]

Thanks for the great write up...Feels like the biggest Royals game in years... I too am on the Royals...

ive never felt more confident in them.

Verlander bout to get titty ripped

[PorkChop]

Verander is completely hit or miss at this point. Hard to bet on him; still hard to bet against him (for me at least)

[Darkside Magick]

Waiting for late KC money....hope to get tigers @ -125

[Machine Choice]

Vargas gave up 7 earned runs to the Tigs when he last faced them four weeks ago. Yes Detroit is scuffling right now, but they tend to get up for big games. The last time the Tigers played the royals, KC was in 2nd place in the division just like they are tonight. Result: Tigers swept the Royals in three games and outscored them by more than 15 runs. I'm not saying the Royals will lose tonight. I'm just being the devils advocate. Best position on this game tonight is to not touch it. If the total falls to 8, slam the over. Otherwise leave it alone.

[stevenash]

Vargas gave up 7 earned runs to the Tigs when he last faced them four weeks ago. Yes Detroit is scuffling right now, but they tend to get up for big games. The last time the Tigers played the royals, KC was in 2nd place in the division just like they are tonight. Result: Tigers swept the Royals in three games and outscored them by more than 15 runs. I'm not saying the Royals will lose tonight. I'm just being the devils advocate. Best position on this game tonight is to not touch it. If the total falls to 8, slam the over. Otherwise leave it alone.

Good post.

As a spot bettor, I pick my spots (well duh lol) anyway, to me, you have to (another Crash Davis reference here) respect the streak, and the fact that the Royals are now hitting like they are supposed to, and Verlander on the decline, just like this spot.

Now many of you like 'the due' theory, as in 'Royals are due for a loss', my wife, who knows more sports than half the dudes, also subscribes to 'the due' theory too.

She'd be like "but Kershaw, or so and so, is due to lose" and I'd be like "says who"

Weren't the 1988 Orioles due for a win at the start of the season?

Nice attendence there for that Brewer series, hiuh?

Rk	Gm#	Tm	Opp	W/L	R	RA	W-L	Rank	GB	Win	Loss	Time	Attendance
1	1	BAL	MIL	L	0	12	0-1	5	1	Higuera	Boddicker	2:58	52,395
2	2	BAL	MIL	L	1	3	0-2	7	2	Bosio	Morgan	2:14	13,487
3	3	BAL	CLE	L	0	3	0-3	7	3	Bailes	Thurmond	2:22	53,738
4	4	BAL	CLE	L	1	12	0-4	7	4	Candiotti	Boddicker	3:05	16,401
5	5	BAL	CLE	L	3	6	0-5	7	5	Yett	McGregor	2:57	19,560
6	6	BAL	CLE	L	2	7	0-6	7	5.5	Swindell	Morgan	2:19	15,816
7	7	BAL	KCR	L	1	6	0-7	7	6	Gubicza	Peraza	2:57	11,180
8	8	BAL	KCR	L	3	9	0-8	7	7	Bannister	Thurmond	2:58	12,027
9	9	BAL	KCR	L	3	4	0-9	7	8	Saberhagen	Boddicker	2:40	13,005
10	10	BAL	CLE	L	2	3	0-10	7	9	Yett	McGregor	2:57	13,215
11	11	BAL	CLE	L	0	1	0-11	7	9.5	Swindell	Schmidt	3:12	13,625
12	12	BAL	CLE	L	1	4	0-12	7	11	Farrell	Peraza	2:36	20,837
13	13	BAL	MIL	L	5	9	0-13	7	11	Nieves	Thurmond	2:54	7,414
14	14	BAL	MIL	L	6	8	0-14	7	12	Wegman	Boddicker	3:13	7,284
15	15	BAL	MIL	L	1	7	0-15	7	12	Bosio	McGregor	2:35	7,749
16	16	BAL	KCR	L	1	13	0-16	7	13	Gubicza	Morgan	2:30	34,482
17	17	BAL	KCR	L-wo	3	4	0-17	7	14	Power	Sisk	2:37	23,564
18	18	BAL	KCR	L	1	3	0-18	7	14	Saberhagen	Thurmond	2:24	25,526
19	19	BAL	MIN	L	2	4	0-19	7	15	Viola	Morgan	2:40	21,172
20	20	BAL	MIN	L	6	7	0-20	7	16	Berenguer	Scherrer	3:14	17,757
21	21	BAL	MIN	L	2	4	0-21	7	16	Anderson	Boddicker	2:57	23,006

[crustyme]

I took KC.

great reason to back detroit.

[Down_Goes Bookie]

Lot to like in this play. Snagged KC at +140 with a local book. Banking on two hot lefties in Vargas and Chen with BAL tonight.

Good to see you back Nash.

[stevenash]

Lot to like in this play. Snagged KC at +140 with a local book. Banking on two hot lefties in Vargas and Chen with BAL tonight.

Good to see you back Nash.

Thanks, work and stuff was wearing me out, no time, now I have time, took a couple of days off, I can concentrate on my baseball stuff.

Yeah, Orioles look like a play too, and Sox

[I/O]

Detroit takes care of business tonight

[I/O]

KC had a shot to score early

nada

[remeedella]

lol vargas is here, kc will smash a few

[I/O]

here come the Tiggers