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College World Series Preview/Picks
College World Series Preview
Eight teams are in Omaha looking for the title. Hoping to provide some useful information for anyone wagering on this great event. Don't proclaim to know everything or anything, but I do crunch the #s and look over the pitching match-ups and lineups as best I can so I'm not just dartboard tossing. Fade. Follow. Do whatever's clever.
First Note. Since the CWS moved to TD Ameritrade Park from the explosive offensive monster that was Rosenblatt Stadium, scoring has gone WAY down. That doesn't mean you're not going to see some games getting into double digits, but realize that balls DIE in this place. I've seen a number of balls crushed since 2011 and they barely get to the warning track. Only 22 home runs in three years (39 games), Good pitching, which there is plenty of with all these teams, generally will keep the scores from getting out of hand.
BigSTAT: 16/39 games over the three College World Series held at TD Ameritrade have hit for nine or more runs. Only nine in double digits. 12/16 were in the 1st round. So when you're looking for OVERs, generally once teams play their 2nd games in Omaha the number is going to need to be low as nine run games or more become less and less likely.
BigSTAT #2: When you look at Futures for this event, think outside the box. This year there are more "underdogs" than ever as only two National Seeds have made it to this stage. Since 2008, a National Seed has won the Title only twice. Those both came in years where chalk made it to Omaha and the field feature a majority of National Seeds. Definitely not the case this year. Only Virginia and TCU were among the top eight National Seeds to advance. It doesn't mean they won't be around in the semifinals or final series, but taking a shot at longer odds seems to benefit your bankroll better.
Team Breakdowns
Louisville
Offense: .287 BA/413 runs scored/32 HR
Fielding: .971
Team ERA: 2.78
Starting Pitchers
Funkhouser 13-2/1.73 ERA/.198 BAA
Kidston 9-0/3.54 ERA/.216 ERA
*Walks are a big problem for Funkhouser. 59 in 114.1 IP. Same goes for Kidson with 35 in 68.2 IP. Both make up for it generally with quality out pitches that get them a high number of Ks. Still, when they walk batters - the opposition can do some damage. An injury to their #3 Ruxer leaves them short on depth if they advance further & are forced to play back-to-back games.
Bullpen
Burdi 0.51 ERA/18 SV/.133 BA
McGrath 1.38 ERA
Sturgeon 1.98 ERA
*If the Cardinals get 6-7 out of their starters and have a lead, it's close to a lock that this team is going to close out a W. They are 42-0 when leading after the 6th inning and the combo of McGrath and Burdi are very difficult to beat late.
Outlook: Louisville is the only returning team from last year's CWS, so experience is with them. This team can create mega-havoc on the bases paths, averaging over two steals per game. The key is their SP. They need those guys to avoid walks and get the ball to their bullpen late with a lead or with the game tied. Somehow Louisville & Vanderbilt found each other again this postseason and they have delivered some great drama the last few years in this budding rivalry. The Cards have their number recently having beaten them once in the regular season mid-week and knocking the Commodores out of the Supers in 2013. Seems a much bigger deal for Louisville to nab that 1st win with their pitching depth questionable in the rotation now. Louisville was two and BBQ last year in Omaha, I look for that to put a chip on their shoulder this year - but will it be enough?
Mississippi
Offense: .303 BA/396 runs scored/42 HR
Fielding .971
Team ERA: 2.72
Starting Pitchers
Ellis 10-2/2.45 ERA/.259 BAA
Trent 9-0/2.21 ERA/.235 BAA
Smith 5-4/3.45 ERA/.287 BAA
*Trent is a fantastic lefty that could be the key to Ole Miss' success in Omaha in negating a team like Virginia that is loaded with lefties. Ellis has good numbers, but with his BAA and his performance against Lafayette in the Regionals - watch out for his match-up, he can be hit. Smith is a decent innings eater and has done his job in the postseason of getting the ball to the bullpen with his team in the game. This staff is not elite like the others in this field, but they are good enough when this offense is clicking.
Bullpen
Layer 1.32 ERA/6 SV/.227 BAA
Weathersby 2.00 ERA/2 SV/.208 BAA
Greenwoord 1.96 ERA/4 SV/.199 BAA
*Ole Miss may not have that elite closer, but what they have is great versatilty to be able to finish games. Any of these guys can "close" for multiple innings which may actually benefit them over depending on that one main option. These guys were key in helping close out Lafayette in the Super Regional.
Outlook: Ole Miss probably has the most explosive offense in this field that consistently produced in one of the toughest conferences in D1. The big question will be how their pitching holds up and what the offense can do against the elite staffs here. They face Virginia to open and have TCU and a hot Texas Tech team in this part of the bracket. The plus is only Virginia has an offense that rivals Ole Miss, so if they can get good pitching from their starters - they have every right to think they'll be in the mix for the Championship Series. I think the key is that opener. If they get the W over Kirby, they will be on top of the world, but a loss and they'll be scrambling.
Texas
Offense: .268 BA/286 runs scored/21 HR/96 SAC
Fielding: .975
Team ERA: 2.32 ERA
Starting Pitchers
Thornhill 8-2/1.57 ERA/.206 BAA
French 6-5/2.45 ERA/.237 BAA
Hollingsworth 3-0/1.36 ERA/.191 BAA
*An injury to a key member of their rotation in the B12 tournament (Dillon Peters) has failed to derail this elite pitching staff. Hollingsworth stepped in and came up clutch in the Regionals and UT will feel comfortable with hm in the mix. Thornhill has been oustanding this postseason and the Freshman French has proven to be reliable.
Bullpen
Curtiss 2.06 ERA/9 SV/.199 BAA
Duke 0.34 ERA/.216 BAA
Culbreth 1.98 ERA/.176 BAA
*Even with Hollingsworth shifted into the rotation, this bullpen is stout. Curtiss has nasty stuff as the closer and Duke & Culbreth are steady as they come. This will be another team that is very tough to beat with a late lead.
Outlook: Texas is an intriguing team here. They know what they are and their style should suit this stadium. Small ball, execution and pitching. The unfortunate thing is they meet their mirror image in the opener in UC-Irvine. I have not seen for sure, but I am guessing we get ace vs. ace with Morales and Thornhill. Runs will be at a premium. Whomever they face second, they will have a markedly tougher task against better offenses in Louisville or Vanderbilt. They did a nice job to get here and could work through on their pitching alone, but I think ultimately their lack of hitting is going to catch up with them at some point as they are likely to have to beat one or two of these better offenses once or twice.
TCU
Offense: .283 BA/324 runs scored/13 HR
Fielding: .978
Team ERA: 2.19
Starting Pitchers
Finnegan 9-3/2.12 ERA/.202 ERA
Morrison 9-4/1.32 ERA/.197 BAA
Alexander 10-3/2.16 ERA/.232 BAA
*This is probably the best 1-2-3 punch in Omaha. Finnegan is a lefty flame thrower: 129 Ks in 97.2 IP. The one fault is that he may sometimes use up pitches because of the high K rate. Morrison is a pitcher's pitcher. Great variety of pitches, hits his spots. Alexander had not shown much fault as a Freshman until the Super Regionals when Pepperdine got to him for 3 ER in just 3 IP. He'll be one to watch. Don't be totally shocked if depending on the match-up that the Frogs don't throw Jordan Kipper into that slot. He's been awesOme in spot starts and kept Pepperdine within reach for their epic comeback in Game 3 of the Supers.
Bullpen
Ferrell 0.68 ERA/15 SV/.124 BAA
Teakell 2.22 ERA/2 SV/.220 BAA
Young 2.53 ERA/1 SV/.224 BAA
*Ferrell is a beast as the closer. 64 Ks in 39.3 IP. Teakell and Young offer versaility and multiple inning options whenever needed. TCU was 40-1 when leading after 6 innings. The same theme as several of these other teams, if they have a lead - they are difficult to come back on.
Outlook: TCU flirted with disaster in the Super Regionals, but came up with an emotional 9th inning rally and win to advance. The series though highlighted the inconsistency of their offense this postseason. TCU had been a pretty consistent offense when they got hot in May and into the B12 tournament. However in the Regionals and Super Regionals, they had plenty of trouble getting the big hit until the final game against Pepperdine. Their pitching is not in question. It will keep them in every game they play. The Frogs ride or die on what their offense can give to them. This is another small ball type of team, although not in the SAC bunt vein of Texas. That though could change with their struggles to score in the Supers. This is a tough bracket. Texas Tech beat them a ccouple times this year, but Finnegan was the equalizer as he dominated them. Finnegan could be the key to making the Championship Series as the Frog likely will need to beat Virginia at least once. Lefties can do a job on them at-times. But the problem may be aligning the rotation to get that match-up. All the close games should help this club, but they're playing with a small margin for error from their pitching staff if the offense struggles.
Texas Tech
Offense: .287 BA/384 runs scored/30 HR
Fielding: .981
Team ERA: 3.17
Starting Pitchers
Sadberry 5-3/3.17 ERA/.263 BAA
Dusek 8-0/1.94 ERA/.233 BAA
Moseley: 1-2/3.32 ERA/.209 BAA
C.Smith: 8-1/2.81 ERA/ .213 BAA
*Pitching will be interesting with Tech in this tournament. They were paired up against some very weak offenses in both the Regionals & Super Regionals. Their starters responded with some excellent starts, but it's worth watching as they will see two of the best offenses in Ole Miss and/or Virginia on their side of the bracket. The Freshman Dusek will give them a lefty to counter UVA's left handed batters and he's their best. Sadberry is the experience, but he's certainly a guy who can be hit. Mosely & Smith both started games in the Regionals, so if needed they offer Tech the flexibility to play match-ups if they need a #3.
Bullpen
Drozd 2.00 ERA/5 SV/.229 BAA
Moreno 3.14 ERA/2 SV/.267 BAA
Taylor 2.62 ERA/.268 BAA
Tripp 2.73 ERA/.250 BAA
*This is definitely the weakest point of the club. Drozd is a solid guy to close, but bridging the gap to him could prove troublesome. They certainly have some solid arms who will be high on confidence with how they have pitched this postseason, but this pen is a question mark. They do have good versatility though, so they won't run out of options, it's just a question of how effective they can be.
Outlook: Will Tech be just happy to be in Omaha? They're likely to get a lot of love as first timers, but there are big concerns about this team in this bracket. Their offense which had been the bigger part of them getting to the postseason was MIA in the Super Regionals, scoring just two runs. It's very unlikely their pitching is going to continue to produce stellar efforts, especially with legit offenses in Ole Miss and Virginia. Those will be 10x better than anything they have seen in the Regionals or Supers. I won't be surprised if they are two and through in Omaha.
UC-Irvine
Offense: .272 BA/280 runs scored/12 HR
Fielding: .974
Team ERA: 2.76
Starting Pitchers
Morales 11-2/1.53 ERA/.182 ERA
Surrey 8-4/1.99 ERA/.229 BAA
Brock 8-6/3.16 ERA/.272 BAA
*The 1-2 punch of Morales & Surrey is proving to be as good as any in this tournament. Morales is an absolute stud who stymied a solid Oklahoma State offense in the Supers with a CG shutout. That was on the heels of pitching twice in the Regionals to guide Irvine to the Supers. He's got great stuff and a great make-up. Irvine will be in any game he pitches. Surrey has proven to be a good lefty for this Anteaters club & appears to be growing in confidence. Very important I think for this team to win their 1st game to have Morales available to pitch as many games as possible. Brock is decent, but after the 1-2 guys it gets a little more dicey.
Bullpen
Moore 1.88 ERA/23 SV/.223 ERA
Mannarino 2.83 ERA/.301 BAA
Litchfield 3.58 ERA/.248 ERA
*The back end will be protected well with Moore, but any bridge from the starters to him is questionable. This is not a great bullpen outside of Moore. Mannarino has been good enough, but that BAA shows you that he flirts with danger. This team will need their starters to perform very well to have a chance to last more than a couple games.
Outlook: This does not have the look of a National Champion ... but tell that to Oregon State and Oklahoma State. You simply cannot underestimate the ride this team is on right now. They beat the best team in D1 on their home field a couple times to get to the Super Regionals and then kept down a very potent Oklahoma State in two straight games. Although there are teams here with better make-ups, this team just has that Cinderella feel to it. If they can get by their Doppelganger (Texas) n the opener, this team will be poised to be there at the end as Morales will get multiple starts. Even out of the Loser's Bracket, I would not count them out. Something special about this team that the numbers cannot explain.
Vanderbilt
Offense: .283 BA/374 runs/21 HR
Fielding: .975
Team ERA: 2.75
Starting Pitchers
Beede 8-7/3.58 ERA/.213 BAA
Fulmer 6-1/1.78 ERA/.186 BAA
Buehler 11-2/2.39 ERA/.228 BAA
Ferguson 8-3/2.51 ERA/.199 BAA
*Ferguson is currently coming out of the bullpen, but he should be considered a valid part of this rotation if Vandy makes a run. For me, this pitching staff is the key to the Commodores success. The starters were a little shaky against Stanford in the Supers as the Cardinal scored 15 runs in the three game set. That was offset with great offense with Vandy scoring double digits twice in the series. Inconsistency has plagued the most talented guy here in Beede. He has electric stuff and whiffs about a batter per IP, but walks can be a huge issue when he's struggling. Buehler is another power arm with 102 Ks in 94 IP and Fulmer might be their best as he has been inserted into the rotation regularly now in the postseason. If Beede can match his consistency with his stuff, then Vanderbilt should be the favorite to take home the title IMO.
Bullpen
Stone: 1.64 ERA/3 SV/.193 ERA
B.Miller: 1.82 ERA/5 SV/ .157 BAA
Ravenelle 1.56 ERA/.157 BAA
*There's a couple other arms they use to mix & match, but the horses in this pen are Stone & Brian Miller. Stone has the best stuff with 68 Ks in 49.1 IP. Ferguson gives them great flexibility as a potential 4th starter or key bullpen ingredient. He saved the day when Beede struggled in the Supers, coming out of the pen and shutting Stanford down. Good versatility here and this is a definite strength.
Outlook: I like this team alot. The problem has been their youth has shown with inconsistencies at times, especially from some of their starting pitching. The big plus is that their bats were alive and flexing their muscle in the Supers. The opener with Louisville is a chance to destroy some demons from last season for this program. They have the flexibility to come through the Loser's Bracket, but I think this team needs early momentum and belief to have a true chance to run to the Championship Series. The biggest thing will be how their defense holds up against the execution of the other three teams in this bracket. Texas, UC-Irvine and Louisville all play small ball with bunts and steals to move runners around. IF Vandy can handle that, they have a realistic shot. If their defense cracks, they could be going home early.
Virginia
Offense: .281/352 runs scored/33 HR
Fielding: .982
Team ERA: 2.31
Starting Pitchers
Kirby 9-2/1.73 ERA/.182 BAA
Waddell 9-3/2.66 ERA/.244 BAA
Lewicki 6-1/1.62 ERA/.163 BAA
Sborz 5-4/3.04 ERA/.204
*Lewicki appears to be slotted in as the third guy most likely. He would have been in line for that role in Game #3 in the Supers, but was forced to come in for a long relief outing that left Sborz as the starter. All he did was shut out Maryland over seven innings to help them clinch their trip to the CWS. Kirby and Waddell are outstanding, although Kirby was hit hard against Maryland. For the most part though, he has been a dominant ace all season. Having lefties as your top 2 could give them an even bigger edge in Omaha. Whatever the case is, this team won't be scared if they wind up in the Loser's Bracket at some point. They have plenty of depth. The interesting thing to watch is the aggressiveness of the opposition. Maryland swung early and often in the count against Kirby and it paid off.
Bullpen
Howard 2.05 ERA/19 SV/.185 BAA
Mayberry 1.59 ERA/.178 BAA
Bettinger 1.23 ERA/.188 BAA
Young 2.01 ERA/.213 BAA
*Probably the deepest bullpen in Omaha. Howard is a great closer and there are so many interchangeable parts among the rest. Lewicki or Sborz could also be a key cog out of the pen, depending on how the chips fall for starting roles. There were a few hiccups for this team down the stretch that included a blow bullpen day, but mostly this has been as steady a unit as you'll find.
Outlook: The highest remaining National Seed will deservedly be looked upon as the odds-on favorite to win the whole thing. This team had a dip in level to finish the regular season and into the ACC tournament. They righted the ship in the Regionals, but were shocked by Maryland in the opener of the Supers. They showed great resolve however to rebound and pound out two wins to advance. That may have been just what the team needed heading to Omaha. They have the best combo of pitching and offense. Although they did hit some lefties in the postseason, that is still a question mark to me in this part of the bracket. How will their heavily left-handed lineup fare if they go against TCU's Finnegan or Ole Miss' Trent. Trent shut down a potent lefty lineup in Lafayette and Finnegan is overpowering. If the match-ups fall right, UVA should expect to be in the Championship mix. Getting Ellis in the opener against Ole Miss is huge. A win there and it sets them up for success and avoiding the two best lefties on this side of the bracket although Dusek from Tech could also provide an interestng test.
Will post Futures and some picks on Saturday. Was a little bit in the red from the Regionals/Supers. Proceed accordingly.
hossa8110 gave EaglesPhan36 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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Originally Posted by Eddy Munny
