[posey]

I played around with some queries at killersports.com and came up with a possible chase system. It won't produce a ton of chases over the course of a season but it seems to do very well. Here are some numbers. To keep things simple I didn't look into games in which there were pushes instead of overs or unders.

Only 2 criterias:
- a team has produced less than 4 runs in one match (3 or less)
- but this team has produced more than 10 hits (11 or more)
If a team meets those criterias an under chase on this team will be started in the team's next match. In our case it would be a chase on the Brewers under starting today, because they had 11 hits and 3 runs yesterday.

Since 2004 these are the numbers for the games after the trigger game (first number over, second number under:
1st game: 491 - 529
2nd game: 237 - 227
3rd game: 113 - 118
4th game: 52 - 55
5th game: 23 - 27
6th game: 9 - 13
7th game: 6 - 3
8th game: 1 - 5
9th game: 1 - 0
10th game: 0 - 1

As I said I left out the pushes and that's the reason why the numbers from above don't add up. But I don't think that those numbers which I left out would produce a big difference. I think a 4 or maybe better a 5 game chase could do very well. Goal should be to win about one unit so we would have to do some maths. Let's say we start with $10 on the first chase.

I gonna try this out on paper.

2014-06-12
(A) MIL @ NYM, u7, +105, $10


Maybe I will look for other possible chase system out there and post them here.

[posey]

Result from 2014-06-12
(A) MIL @ NYM, u7, +105, $10 --> 5-1, +$10.5

No team meets the criteria for a new chase. Let's wait.

[I/O]

GL.