1. 04-09-07 12:36 PM #1
    The HG
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    Pitt down to -105?

    There's value here. Pujols is a monster of course, and then there are some decent hitters besides him in the STL lineup, but half of it is very weak. Pitt is more complete up and down the order.

    Snell can be great and also can get bombed, but Looper is not an experienced starter, he will probably get tired early as he did in his last game.

    Pitt has the edge here, their odds shouldn't be equal to STL's.
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  2. 04-09-07 01:00 PM #2
    RickySteve
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    100% agreed. I can't understand the movement on this game.
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  3. 04-09-07 01:13 PM #3
    tevari
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    looper is absolute trash, and yes i am a mets fan.
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  4. 04-09-07 01:21 PM #4
    RickySteve
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    This seems to be a textbook example of public perception being completely out-of-step with fundamental values. Pittsburgh's lineup is better, they are at home, and Snell is a MUCH better starter than Looper. Neither team has an edge in the bullpen.

    Meanwhile, the market is seeing a guy who had a 3.56 ERA last season, starting for the "World Series Champs" versus the (seemingly) inept Pirates, getting plus odds. They're firing away on reflex.
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  5. 04-09-07 02:15 PM #5
    The HG
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    Maybe so. It was definitely a very suspicious movement, it made me think twice. It had the classic "someone knows something" feel to it, because it made so little sense, it made a little too much little sense.

    But I went for it anyway. To take the bait or not to take the bait, that is the question. When it comes to movements like that, it's a judgment call, there's no statistical analysis you can do to tell you what is best - as you said RickySteve, the fundamentals would only ever point to Pitt in this one.

    I decided to take the bait, put a regular-range amount on it. If I get burned, so be it, I considered it carefully. But it sure was an eyebrow raising line movement.
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  6. 04-09-07 02:48 PM #6
    R3Sports
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    Quote Originally Posted by tevari View Post
    looper is absolute trash, and yes i am a mets fan.
    haha word, same here.
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  7. 04-09-07 02:54 PM #7
    Razz
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    I ended up taking the Pirates as well. Oh well. Maybe Looper's not that bad. He was good against the Mets, and fantastic today.
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  8. 04-09-07 03:18 PM #8
    RickySteve
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    Braden Looper, Ryan Franklin(!!!) and Jason Isringhausen toss a 3-hitter. That's a 6-sigma event.
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  9. 04-09-07 03:32 PM #9
    BuddyBear
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    unreal.....
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