[EaglesPhan36]

6.6.14
NASHVILLE SUPER REGIONAL: [G1] Vanderbilt-Stanford Over 8.5 @ -130
Beede for Vandy and Hochstatter for Stanford. Beede dominated Xavier in the Regionals, going the distance and allowing just four hits while whiffing 14 in 8 IP. He's been dominant most of the season, averaging more than a K per inning, but still sporting an ERA over 3.00. Hochstatter is a crafty lefty with a .216 BAA/2.84 ERA. In all, he's solid, but is allowing 3-4 runs per start down the stretch. Offensively, Vandy was stout all season and worked past a slump to rediscover their stroke in the Regionals. They scored 21 runs in three games after scoring just six in three games in the SEC tournament. They hit .280 as a team, so they definitely have the ability and are rock solid @ home. Stanford hits .272 as a team and has scored much less than the Commodores, but their offense was in fine form in the Bloomington Regional with five or more runs in 4/5. They also gave up at least four runs in 4/5, so this Vandy offense should have opportunities. Stanford's pen is decent, but definitely has holes that can be exploited. A big key to getting over would be to see the Commodores knock Hochstatter around early. Vandy is much more solid in the pen, so whatever Stanford can get may only come off Beede. At home, Vandy's totals have hit nine or more in 12 of their last 16.

[EaglesPhan36]

Unless they post up in the morning, it looks like 5Dimes is going to drop the ball again on posting Futures. So be it.

[EaglesPhan36]

One of the Supers I am focusing on the most.

AUSTIN REGIONAL PREVIEW
An unexpected Super Regional in Austin after both Houston & Texas pushed through on the road in Regional action last weekend. Houston was mighty impressive in taking out the host LSU Tigers in two straight elimination games to end the Regional. A small caviat as they did not have to face Nola or Poche, but nonetheless - big wins over a program that was on a major roll. Texas worked through the Houston Regional, beating Texas A&M in the Final. They also scored a win over Regional Host, Rice. For both teams, the pitching was excellent and Houston's hitting really flexed its muscle in the final two games against LSU. The Cougars got to LSU's closer in the 1st elmination game to force extra innings and ultimately get the win before pounding home 12 runs in the final game. In all, Houston's offense was the more impressive with 30 runs in five games. Texas managed just 17 runs in four games, but only yielded seven which meant 3-4 runs per game was going to get it done. These teams met once in early March with Texas winning 3-2. Houston was victimized by an error than led to a pair of unearned runs. Otherwise, a pitcher's duel with Lemoine going 7 for UH, allowing just three hits. French went for UT, allowing seven hits in 7 IP and just one run. Those are two pitchers that will both start in this best of three series, so it's a decent barometer of what to expect.

On the season, the Horns are hitting .267 with 278 runs scored. Keep in mind, this is a team that struggled at home though to score more so than on the road. At home, they tallied just 119 of those runs - an average of just under four runs. Houston is hitting .278 as a team with 338 runs scored. Both teams have deep and talented pitching staffs. Texas was hurt by the loss of starter Dillon Peters in the B12 tournament. They turned to Lucas Schiraldi as a third starter. That will be a big edge for Houston if there is a deciding Game 3 as they sport a great 1-2-3 weekend punch with Lemoine, Garza and Longville who were all fantastic in the Baton Rouge Regional. Texas will have Thornhill & French in some order in Games 1 & 2. A Game 3 would pose an interesting quandry for Texas. Houston will lean on Ford and Wellbrock, both of whom sport 1.22 ERAs out of the pen. They also have two other solid arms in Robinson and Lantrip who has sub-2 ERAs. Texas also has the depth. Closer John Curtiss has a 2.32 ERA and key bullpen pieces Culbreth and Duke have sub 2-ERAs. Hollingsworth emerged as a real wild card for UT in the Regionals as he stepped into a starting role in the Final. He went the distance to lead UT to the Supers. I imagine UT would use him over Schiraldi in a Game 3 scenario, but I think they would also like his arm out of the bullpen in Games 1 & 2 if needed. That will be something to watch in this one.

Runs will be hard to come by in this series most likely. The Horns are very used to this as they adapt the small ball approach, ranking 1st in D1 with 94 sacrifices. Houston is no slouch though, ranking 29th.

[EaglesPhan36]

6.6.14
AUSTIN SUPER REGIONAL: [G1] Texas -1.5 @ +165
Risking 0.70 units
Thornhill for Texas. Lemoine for Houston (not confirmed). Thornhill has been absolutely beastly as the season came down to its conclusion and into the postseason. In his last four starts, he has a 0.40 ERA. Lemoine gave up five runs on ten hits to a pretty stout LSU offense last weekend. He has stumbled down the stretch, giving up at least three runs in three straight starts. Defense has been an issue in those starts also with several of those runs unearned. On the season, 37 runs have been given up by Lemoine, only 30 are earned. Thornhill conversely for UT has given up just 16 runs and 15 have been earned, so his defense backs him a slight bit better. In spite of the pitcher's duel that likely unfolds here, Texas has found a way to win by multiple runs with 4/5 postseason wins coming by two or more runs and nine of their last eleven at Disch-Faulk Field falling into the same vein.

[EaglesPhan36]

I will be varying some of the bet sizes to try and preserve profits when at all possible for the day. If it is not listed, the bet is being made either to risk one unit on dogs or to win one unit on anything -101 and higher.

[hossa8110]

alright ep went $1000 on texas figured be safe and took moneyline to win $1000

[domz248]

Nice hit on the over.

[EaglesPhan36]

alright ep went $1000 on texas figured be safe and took moneyline to win $1000

Good luck. It could be tight and that might win while mine fails. I think UT has the pitching edge today. Even if it isn't Lemoine for Houston, Thornhill gives them that. Going to come down to execution in those small ball situations. Be nice if UT can get some early runs.

[EaglesPhan36]

6.6.14
LOUISVILLE SUPER REGIONAL: Louisville-Kennesaw State Over 8.5 @ -125
You can certainly make a case for trying Louisville on the spread here as they have the superior pitching in this match-up by quite a bit, but I'm going to opt for the total over than -2.5 line. Louisville starts Funkhouser. Kennesaw State is going with Hillyer. Funkhouser is a beast, hard to touch at times with 110 Ks in 107.1 IP with a .201 BAA. The area where teams can work him into some trouble is with patience. He is prone to walks, issuing 54 so far this season. Generally it does not hurt him due to his nasty stuff, but this Kennesaw State team is a good hitting squad that can make him pay for any wildness. Hillyer meanwhile is very touchable. He has a 3.55 ERA/.258 BAA and gives up around one hit per IP. He has been blasted in his two postseason starts, giving up ten runs/nine earned in just 10 IP. They have a good, but not great bulpen outside of their closer McCalvin. If Louisville's bats start early on Hillyer, they can add more later. The Cardinals were solid in the Regionals, putting up 15 runs in three games. They bat .286 with 401 runs scored, good for 9th best in D1. Kennesaw hits .299 as a team, scoring 377 runs which is 21st in D1. They scuffled a bit to get clutch hits against a good Alabama pitching staff in 3/4 of their Regional games, but busted out with 13 against Georgia Southern. I don't think they need to put up a crooked number to help cash this number. Funkhouser is unlikely to get pounded, so if they can scrape together 2-3 runs or better, then I think Louisville should attack to fill in the rest. Kennesaw can't plan on getting anything against this Cardinals' bullpen whose biggest pieces all have ERAs under 2.00.

[EaglesPhan36]

Some terrible luck for Texas this inning. Blooper that should have been caught and now one hits the bag and leads to a run. Urg.

[EaglesPhan36]

Whew! Texas closes it out 4-2. Felt like there was going to be a run somewhere to screw that. Good start to the day, need some runs to start rolling in Louisville.

[EaglesPhan36]

6.6.14
STILLWATER SUPER REGIONAL: Oklahoma State-UC Irvine Under 9.5 @ -155
Perrin for OSU & Surrey for Irvine. Perrin is the best that the Cowboys have to offer with a 2.23 ERA/.248 BAA. He will give up some hits, but has been good limiting damage mostly. He did have a rough outing in the Regionals against a Fullerton State club that isn't exactly a juggernaut. Surrey was great against Oregon State, limiting the Beavers to just two runs in a 14-2 route in the Regional round. He sports a 2.13 ERA/.227 BAA. This is will be a tough test as Oklahoma State scored 19 runs against Fullerton State in two games in the Regionals last weekend ... one of the top ERA clubs in D1. I like Irvine's thinking here though in going with the lefty to open as southpaws can give this OSU club some trouble. It's still a potent club that has scored 396 runs among the top 10 in D1. Irvine meanwhile flexed some unexpected offensive muscle early in the Corvallis Regional with 24 runs in two games, but returned to earth with just four over their next two. They have scored 271 runs and hit .271 as a team. Generally, good pitching is going to keep them from exploding. The key in this one is going to be how Surrey handles the Okie State lineup. I think he needs success early. Irvine has less bullpen options, so they need a quality start. OSU meanwhile has solid options, especially with Wheeland who can fill innings a-plenty and All-World closer Brendan McCurry.

*Going to hold on booking this for a bit. I'd be okay if the total dropped to 9 with some reduced price. If it stays where it is currently, I'll be risking 0.78 to win 0.5 units.

[EaglesPhan36]

Kennesaw-Louisville reminds me of Bama-Kennesaw when I was on the over, severe lack of production with RISP and there are RISP every inning.

[jed81]

like the play on the under was thinking about taking UC Irvine Ml very small any thoughts ??

[EaglesPhan36]

Like them better tomorrow with Morales pitching although the price could be lower with a larger pitching advantage for Irvine, but it may depend more on who wins tonight. I think they should be a larger dog tonight than they are priced. A lot of that though is due to the perception the public has on them now after they beat Oregon State, but this Oklahoma State has a much more consistent offense than Oregon State. They will test their pitching a lot more.

[EaglesPhan36]

Louisville cannot buy a hit with RISP. All but one inning they have had a runner on 2nd and one out and they have one stinking run,

[EaglesPhan36]

Correction, 2!

[EaglesPhan36]

Another man on 2nd with less than two outs for Louisville.

[EaglesPhan36]

Squeeze from Louisville to knot it @ 3. Two on, one out.

[EaglesPhan36]

Agony or ecstasy here ... 5-3 with a big hit from Louisville. Runner on 2nd, two outs. One more big hit - do ya got it Louisville?

[EaglesPhan36]

Agony it is. Hit it on the nails to 3rd. 5-3 going to the top of the 9th. Last AB for Kennesaw. Maybe a 1% chance they get a run.

[EaglesPhan36]

5-3 final. All those wasted opps by Louisville during the game.

[EaglesPhan36]

What a fukking comedy of errors this Irvine-OSU game is so far.

[EaglesPhan36]

No way this stays under. Scoring runs on wild pitches and errors prolonging innings. Irvine taking full advantage, 5-1. Six runs on the board and half are earned.

[EaglesPhan36]

Shocking game in Stillwater for me. Just really a horrible outing by OSU. These last two losses are a pisser. Really liked both and the over falling short and this under being doomed for a while now ... back to even for the day. Probably playing less tomorrow, but today I liked a lot.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 2-2 [+0.13]

[EaglesPhan36]

This is the other Super I am following closely. Will have a pick on it tomorrow. Going to see where the line floats before game time.

LUBBOCK SUPER REGIONAL PREVIEW
About as unlikely a pairing as you'll find in the Supers. Tech upset Miami in their own backyard with solid pitching and timely hitting to secure their spot. Charleston perhaps even more impressively went into Gainesville and shocked Florida in the opener and then never looked back as they worked past Long Beach State in the Regional Final. It can be said though that both did catch very flawed #1 seeds in their Regionals. Miami and Florida were both pitching heavy, but had meager offenses that were definitely ripe to be shut down by the right club. Still, they are here and one of them is a step away from a first for their school. Charleston has made no bones about it, they'll stick with their three man rotation of Clarke, Ober & Thornton as of now for this series. Tech has only announced that their most experienced pitcher Sadberry will go in the opener against Clarke. Tech will be tested a bit more this series than in the Regional where they allowed just four runs in four games to Miami and Columbia. Getting three games against that meager Miami offense was a big help. Sadberry is a lefty who leads Tech with 15 starts. He sports a 3.49 ERA/.274 BAA though and is hittable. Depending on what happens in Game 1, Tech may either save or use Dylan Dusek who put up the best numbers of any Tech pitcher. He started 13 games and has a 2.08 ERA/.238 BAA. If they need a third guy, Mosely or Smith is the option. Both were great in the Regionals. Both fall into the same category with a .209 BAA. Tough to hit, but prone to walk trouble. Johnny Drozd is the bullpen anchor with a 2.09 ERA/.237 BAA. He can give them several innings at a time. Corey Taylor is the other favorite out of the pen. 2.62 ERA/.268 BAA. Moreno and Tripp are other guys they can use in longer spots. Definitely the bigger question mark for Tech is this staff if a starter gets knocked around. Their options are more limited than CoC.

For Charleston, Clarke has been a workhorse. He scuffled a bit against Florida though, going 4.1 IP with five walks. The bullpen though swooped in and picked him up. For the season, his ERA is 2.62/.218 BAA. Ober is the ace. He is 10-2 with a 1.55 ERA/.190 BAA. Both guys have strikeout stuff. Thornton gave up a bit more at 3.02, but has a soli .222 BA and closed out the Regionals with a CG. The bullpen is anchored by Hanzlik. He's not a lock down closer with a 3.35 ERA, but he does have 16 saves - so he is used to the pressure. His BAA is .174, some times he's just not effective - but mostly is going to get the job done. Helvey provides a long relief option and Chase Henry and Eric Bauer are the most reliable guys with ERAs under 2.30. If the starters do their job, the bullpen is tough to beat. They have not lost this season when leading after 7 innings. Tech is 33-2, not too shabby either. Offensively, the Red Raiders can crush the ball. They are hitting .289 with 383 runs scored. Charleston is more modest at .258 with 302 runs scored. That could be the big difference in this series, but Tech's offense only produced 11 runs in Coral Gables in four games and they hit just .216 against quality Miami pitching for 3/4 games there. Their pitching is what won that Region. So even with the power bats of Gutierrez and Kirsch, this team can be held in check although it is still a difficult proposition as they have hit against some of the toughest pitching in the country in TCU, Texas and Oklahoma State with success.

CofC has a little history on its side too. Only three #4 seeds have come through the Regionals to make the Super Regionals. Of those three, two wound up booking a trip to Omaha and the College World Series.

[EaglesPhan36]

6.7.14
LUBBOCK SUPER REGIONAL: Texas Tech-Charleston Over 7 @ -150
The more I looked at this, the more I began to think there are going to be at least seven runs here in spite of the pitching both teams put up last weekend. As outlined above, Tech took advantage of some very meager offenses last weekend and while Charleston is no better than that for the most part - Tech's park tends to play smaller. It's 330 down the lines and 404 to straight away CF. Tech's offense certainly felt at home with five or more runs scored in 22/35 played @ Rip Griffin Park. Clarke is solid for CoC, but he hasn't had to face anything like this Tech offense and he is just a Sophomore. Some of that inexperience may have shown against Florida where he had control problems. As a staff, Charleston throws strikes - so Tech's batters have to be prepped from the first pitch. They may prove to be up to the task this weekend, but I think they are going to have to pitch very well at a higher level against an elite offense. Sadberry for Tech does show hittability, so the key for Charleston is too make the most of their opportunities with RISP. His stuff is solid, but he is going to allow base runners.

[EaglesPhan36]

Ain't this the way. Maryland-UVA billed as a major pitcher's duel and it's 4-2 early. Be pissed if this Charleston-Tech game doesn't go where I liked it. I liked Charleston +2.5, but the chalky price got out of control.

[EaglesPhan36]

6.7.14
AUSTIN SUPER REGIONAL: Houston +145
Garza goes for Houston, while Texas counters with French. So it is youngster vs. youngster. I think Houston actually has a little bit of an edge in that they have seen French already this season. He pitched seven strong, scattering seven hits and striking out seven in a 3-2 Texas win. He had no issues that game, but walks can be troublesome at times for French. 37 walks in just under 90 innings. Houston will need to take advantage of any wildness that French has today. Garza won't give in to that extent as he has 10 walks in over 100 innings pitched. As such, he does give up a fair amount of hits - but has been fairly solid at keeping runs off the board. Very important for the Coogs to not fall behind the 8 ball early like they did yesterday. Houston had some opportunities yesterday and I think we'll see them incorporate a little more small ball today if they find leadoff runners on as much as yesterday. They weren't that far away from inflicting damage on Texas, but the Longhorns to their credit got the big outs.

[EaglesPhan36]

Guess I should trust my instincts on that Charleston game. Charleston can't do a thing and Clarke is holding Tech down. +2.5 should have been the shot to take. Damn you chalky chalk for talking me off it.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well I'm now in a funk with what looks like four losses in a row after a good start. Not mad at the Houston pick, but mad at myself for that first one - just go with the gut stupid. Still learning this after all these years.

[EaglesPhan36]

6.6.14
STILLWATER SUPER REGIONAL: Oklahoma State -135
It's a difficult spot for Oklahoma State, but this offense has hit good pitching all season. They will have to do it to survive today as they take on UC-Irvine's ace Andrew Morales. His ERA is a stifling 1.64 with a .182 BAA. He strikes out more than a batter per IP with 128 on the season. He has a good fastball and augments it with a decent change-up and a slider as an out pitch. OSU admitted they were thrown off a tad by Surrey last night who mixed four pitches. I think Morales will give them a more straight forward look that they can attack. Buffett starts for Oklahoma State. The Frosh has been up and down as you'd expect with some difficulty finishing in the B12, but he gave them four solid innings in the Regionals against Binghamton. They won't be looking for more than 4-5. Wheeland will be ready to go out of the bullpen as soon as they need him. For me, this sets up a little like UCI and Oregon State last weekend when Oregon State got a 1st chance to avenge an opening and embarrassing loss. Oklahoma State is treating yesterday as such and while the pitching edge does not start with them, they have the versatility in the bullpen to match-up if Buffett fails. Gut feeling that this goes to a third game.

[EaglesPhan36]

Wheeland wound up starting for OSU, so I like that even more. We'll see how it goes, should be a tight one.

[EaglesPhan36]

Apparently anyone I bet on this round cannot get a hit with RISP.