[Sixla]

Toronto +154 @ 5d?

[fitguy67]

my last post here till someone tends to #31

[fitguy67]

Toronto +154 @ 5d?

bang...you're right...was busy correcting a small calculation error in #34/#35 above...

will have to "sneak in" a bit late in-play (tsf most convenient...pin better for price, when it ain't offline)

[fitguy67]

got it at +175 tsf/live...but will book it for the thread at the fdm close of +154 (altho' if i had not slept thru the first pitch...thanks for waking me up Sixer...i would have taken +155 at her...a small point here, point there on each and every play adds up over a season...)

as it turns out, by screwin' up i did even 20c better than that by sneakin' in early with the score still 0-0...don't ever develop the idea that you can always do that, was just lucky this time...more often the game takes off in the "right" direction, leaving you with nothing...if you ever miss a game's start...TRY to sneak in early...but never pay a higher price than the one you "should" have got pre-game

today so far

1. OAK +140 (sia) @nyy, 1305edt -36.74/ 51.44

2. TOR +154 (fdm) @det, 1308edt -33.40 / 51.44

[fitguy67]

my last post here till someone tends to #31

[Sixla]

Sorry man, I've never posted a video to youtube, no clue how to do that...good luck tho, real curious about this project!

[doogtonmai]

1. There is a YouTube icon.

2. Copy and paste the URL from the video you want to post.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5hWWe-ts2s&feature=kp

would someone who's appreciative of the +2.87% (+1.435 "units" @ 2%) change in your account balance that the first day has blessed us with...please give the OP a careful dolt-proof step-by-step tutorial as to

how one goes about posting a youtube link such as that at the top of this post to a video window that is "ready to play" with a big "play button" triangle thingy just begging to be clicked...you know, walk me thru how to do what 98% of the posters already know how to do ......

until someone teaches me that one thing that has both amazed and eluded me for my entire sbr "career"...until that time...well, i am officially "on strike"...and holding this thread "hostage" until my demand for education is met

i'd appreciate it much if someone would "wise me up" in this regard...(that's the "carrot" side of my request...the "stick" is my vow to never again grace this tread with my verbosity unless and until said schooling is provided me by a gambling "good Samaritan")...

submissions must be organized, thorough and "step by step" in nature...

that is all for now

[doogtonmai]

[fitguy67]

first of all, anybody following along would recognize that the only two qualified candidates for today's slate were
PHI@was,1605edt and MIA@tam,1610edt and would have been left to their own resources to get the best prices on them in the required range...there's no capping...no judgement

all bets are "to win" a be a pre-decided never-changing (aka. "flat") % (I suggest 2%) of the ever-changing latest bankroll (initial investment + latest net) you have specified for this project...
in my case B = I + N = 2,500 + 71.75 = 2,571.75 is today's bank, meaning today's target for all plays is 2% of that, with any non-zero in the last decimal point rounded up)...so for me today's "to win target" is $51.44 = 2%B = B/50


for me, note new plays #3 and #4 added to the bottom of today's probably-complete card

R, 6/05 (where R=thuRsday...i also use U for sUnday, all others as obvious)

1. OAK +140 (sia) @nyy, 1305edt -36.74/ 51.44 L

2. TOR +154 (fdm) @det, 1308edt -33.40 / 51.44 W

3. PHI + 185 (sia) @ was, 1605edt -27.81 / 51.45 U

4. MIA +144 (her) @ tam, 1610 -36.23/51.44 U

________________

first two plays have beed decided, 1-1: +14.70 (= - 36.74 + 51.44 )

___________________

most would say something like: "C'mon Phillies & Fish, in the next two games played"

but i urge you to think something like: "C'mon TJQKA, in the next two cards drawn"
see post #13

[fitguy67]

shopping note: laa@HOU has a small chance of closing over +135 somewhere...and becoming our first-ever HOME dog.

If you want to worry about if a play is OFFICIAL or not, i suppose i can state something clear-cut like...

"any and all dogs that close at 5dimes at a price in the +135 to +199 inclusive range" is the final deciding factor determining if a play is deemed OFFICIAL= it counts toward the thread's record (being OFFICIAL means that and nothing beyond that)



here's what i've decided about the OFFICIALITY of plays
1. we're all adults here...whatever you submit is your play
2. i will use the "5d clause" to decide what plays get counted on the thread's record,
3. it should always be kept in mind, however, that whether a play is designated as OFFICIAL or NOT doesn't matter a rat's ass to dollars added to or dollars subracted from your account...the only thing that affects that is...well, see #1 above

______________

So if you like a play take it, personally..if i can get something at higher than a +135 payout somewhere, it's pretty stupid to not take it just because it might close below +135 somewhere else (aka. 5d)...and if it's at a day high of +137 now a few minutes before game time at 5d...would be pretty stupid to turn my nose up at a nice-priced dog (which is the whole idea of the project)...just because you're not sure if it'll ultimately "count" or not...

at the other extreme...if you have a chance to score a few more cents over +200 if it's +200ish all day fine...but avoid the massive dogs (well above +200 all day...that you'd better describe as +220ish...avoid them...because they tend to be -ev...see the thread linked to in post #1...and look at the great research there by a poster named "eldian" about this that shows up over the last half-dozen pages of that thread)...for monster dogs coming back to earth but still above +200 near game time...well, for those, i might actually wait for at least one major-book breaking below the double-century before biting at a nice +20_ price that remains somewhere else...just to avoid making a "donation to the bookie" on a dead dog

The name of the game is judgement...that elusive all-too-uncommon thing called "common sense"...probably better described as perspective-driven judgement

Exercise to Develop Perspective-Driven Judgement (aka. "common sense")
read item #3 above , then point #1, then #3, then #1 then #3 then #1...repeat this 7 more times (alternating between #3/#1 ten times in total)...

now, answer quick: how important is point #2 ??

[fitguy67]

hey doog...i remember you from a million years ago, golden-greek MLB-thread days...you had the snoopy avatar if i remember correctly...

anyhow...i'm a dolt with the exact meaning of some of the terms you're using...

u can see i've copy and pasted the link to the page on which the you-tube video plays from

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5hWWe-ts2s&feature=kp

now the "icon" thingy of which you speak is where?

do you have to be in "post creating/editing" mode...cuz i can see a little u-tube icon up in the top left right now...just below the B for bold button




damn...can't beat the self-applied socratic method!!!

paydirt dudes...always say try to learn something new every day...
today counts a week!!!

[doogtonmai]

4th icon from the right on a Quick Reply.

hey doog...i remember you from a million years ago, golden-greek MLB-thread days...you had the snoopy avatar if i remember correctly...

anyhow...i'm a dolt with the exact meaning of some of the terms you're using...

u can see i've copy and pasted the link to the page on which the you-tube video plays from

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5hWWe-ts2s&feature=kp

now the "icon" thingy of which you speak is where?

do you have to be in "post creating/editing" mode...cuz i can see a little u-tube icon up in the top left right now...just below the B for bold buttong

[fitguy67]

i hope MeatLoaf is in Tampa right now, recording "2 outa 4 ain't bad...and at the dog prices we got, it's damn good!"

[fitguy67]

R, 6/05

1. OAK +140 (sia) @nyy, 1305edt -36.74/ 51.44

2. TOR +154 (fdm) @det, 1308edt -33.40 / 51.44

3. PHI + 185 (sia) @ was, 1605edt -27.81 / 51.45

4. MIA +144 (her) @ tam, 1610 -36.23/ +51.44

__________________

day #1: 2-1, +71.75
day#2: 2-2, +38.33
TTD: 4-3, +110.08

tomorrow's bank, B= 2610.08 = 2,500 + 110.08 = I + N

tomorrow's "to win" amount, x=52.20 = 2%B =B/50
_____________

"TL/DR" alert

note that at these prices, 1 win roughly offsets two losses...the driving force behind line-clearing methods...but if we go thru a protracted Loss-rich period our bet-sizes will auto-shrivel to protect the remaining balance until the weather improves...unlike the Laboucherian bet-sizes that'll go ballistic after only a few weeks of sub-33% Wins

with Laboucherian bet-sizing a protracted sub-33% period ends in one of three ways...all bad...the least catastrophic listed first
1) the long-awaited Win-rich period arrives...meaning a few monstrous "white knuckle" "win or damn near bust" bets had to be sweated through...result: you dodged the bullet and have "cleared your line" meaning you pocketed the few% of roll in net profit your line was aiming at...but you had to risk a HUGE multiple of that in order to prevail

2)rather than place that monster bet or bets you decided instead to cry "uncle"...your line that was targeting just a few% of roll in net profit, instead has wiped out at least a third of the balance you had before you started into this line...so you re-set operations with the losses from the line that just went busto "divided" or "allocated" among a matrix of new lines...and you proceed with that "once bitten" bitterness, knowing that in the last few weeks, especially in the last few days of that aborted labby...you lost all the profits that you'd slowly accrued over months and months of line-clearing ...time really is money...

3)same as 1) really...but instead of going 2 out of 3 to save your account...someone blew a save in the crucial rubber game and blew your whole account to hell...if 1) left you feeling uneasy and 2) left you feeling tilto, how do you feel now?...all you can think of is how your lab-line tells you it "needs" to "stay the course"...so you gotta place the next bets that you are SO sure are SO overdue to hit...everything's a nightmare now...you either beg/borrow/steal enough for one last shot to make it all right...and it fukkin' loses again in the most improbable deflating way(think 2013 NBA final g6, SAN ml)...or you can't get the money...and you watch the next few bets that you WOULD HAVE played fukkin' win...if 2) left you ...3) leaves you

...and, to make matters worse...IF you were lucky enough to have gone thru door #1)...you now have the dangerously incorrect notion that the line-clearing method will always save ur ass like it just did...making scenarios 2)/3) more likely the next time a huge % of your former account equity gets "tied up in"/"owed to" your line
___________________

what i've chosen=gradual bet-size adjustment that moves in the direction of the account changes (NOT directly against it like line-clearing) will survive in shit periods and thrive in great periods...FAR more stable across a much wider range of results...more ROBUST in the true statistical sense of the word

continually-adjusting-flat% betting is more disaster resistant in bad-weather, for sure...but it's also far more profiteering when the unreal heaters come along too (cuz bet sizes auto-accelerate up as it continues, putting measured %increases of the new "house money" to work for you...meanwhile the labby keeps bet-sizes basically flat during these periods, using the welcomed win-streak to do little more than "clear itself" quicker until the next reset

[whtsox13]

[fitguy67]

pete rose is to the second half of the 20thC what TyCobb was to the first half...

Charlie Hustle!

[fitguy67]

instead of "unit", a term i hate to use because everybody has a different idea of what is meant when you say it, to the point that it's far better to just use goddam $, such as setting 100 of 'em as ur "unit"

but that's unsuitable for me, because i want to vary the $-defintion of the thing i'm talking about before each and every new "today", based on the closing balance of its "yesterday"

so, instead of "u" for "unit"...let's step back one letter in the alphabet and go with some much more precise
"t", which refers specifically to the "Targeted amount" (as opposed to "unit" which is used sometimes for the risked/ sometimes the target amount)

every play can be stated "-v / +t" (v for Ventured amount, as in "nothing Ventured, nothing gained")...y we risk $v in an attempt to win $t...
every day, the "v" will Vary from play to play...while the "t" is always fixT or seT for the whole day's action

if the play is effective...it will result in either a subtraction of "v" or an addition of "t"

each day will have one thing fixed, and that is the targeted amount "t"...

for this thread's account, today=day#3's targetet amount t= 52.20 (calculated at the top of #49) as it reflects the latest version of "yesterday's closing balance"...day #2 closed at 2610.08 which means day#3's "t" will be the contstant fixed-% (which i've set at 2% fro the thread...feel free to change that number for yourself...but once you decide, don't freakin' vary it...it's called a FIXED % for a reason...and applying it daily guarantees that the $-definition of your "t" will vary a bit daily in seemingly-small but actually very-important ways that have a near-optimal effect on the $-ride your betting will give you...it gives you "staying power" when the going is tough...and "grabbing power" when the going is great...it outperforms flat-$ betting by a mile and is quite comparable to line-clearing under normal conditions of the old "W-L track")

I've now describe the underlying logic of everything important in fair detail in previous "word blizzards" (TM, 2014, fitguy67 enterprizes) by now. Any newcomers will be directed to the first two pages, because i don't want to keep explaining why i do things differently. Call me Frank Sinatra. If you want someone to just spit out winnnnnaaaaazzzzzzz, go to another thread. Here, I'll try to show you how to manage an account thru "thick" (W-rich) AND "thin" (L-rich)...and help you see that understanding the probability and statistics of things
(both of these terms refer to the exact same thing, but with a different perspective...probability looks forward at the shit that hasn't happened yet...and statistics looks back at the shit that's already happened) are actually MORE important...than intricate knowledge of the sport you're betting on. Hence the helpfulness of thinking of our dogs as "royal ranked" (ie. TJQKA) cards in the fresh-shuffled deck, from which one card is drawn at random (by the apparently-complex process of a sporting event being "played" to its gradable conclusion)

_________

If you want a guided, day by day, dollar by dollar guide to the rest of the baseball season (by a guy that paradoxically doesn't really give two shits about each separate game by itself...no moaning about "bad beats" here...each game is the "draw of a card from a freshly-shuffled deck"...period...often a super-dramatic <= exhilarating/maddening depending on which side you're on> card draw, i'll agree...but fundamentally an event that has probabilities attached to it before it occurs...and a result which is incorporated into our body of statistics after it occurs)

where was i?, yeah, if you want to ride thru much of the rest of the baseball season with this type of approach...strap on for the ride...plenty of bumps ahead

_____________________________

Almost forgot...first play (for me, whether it be an official thread play is another--relatively unimportant, really--matter) locked on (don't really care if it were to become "unofficial" later by dropping like a stone...making me seem like a BTCL brainiac...or fattened up even more...which would make so many of the "tea leave reading" guys here uncomfortable...wouldn't bother me at all...once i'm in, i'm in...no second guessing...and you gotta shop when u have time to shop...so get the best price you can when you can shop...and don't worry about missing the day high...German expression good to remember "the better is the enemy of the good")

the reason i locked onto this one so early is that i noticed that one of my books offered a big bargain (higher +) relative to all the others...when this happens, "mine is not to reason why"...mine is to say thank you...

hmmm....over the last 30 minutes i've been "word blizzarding" this, price movement has confirmed once again that my "whack a fat mole when it pops its head up" habit is a good one...

i got PHI +145 at sia, 10 points better than anywhere else...so i took it...now best price anywhere is +135...no matter what happens now...no matter where PHI ml ends up, even if it ends up "unofficial"...i know i got this baby at the very best price i could have WHEN i got it...whether it shows up in the thread record or not doesn't mean shit to me or anyone else really...all you really can and should care about is what plays you yourself submit, and at the actual prices you yourself got them at...

So, on likely radar for today (whether they close in the official range or not...if they close less than +135 all the better...wear your sharpy pen with pride cuz u, sir BTCL)...
it's al up to you, but these are the ones i'll be lookin' to buy, using my "spidey sense" to get best price i reasonably can, given the realities of life...then to be forgotten about till the cards are drawn(er..games are played) later tonight
*CLE (now +150s)
*CHW (now +180s)
and keep an eye out for
*STL and *SEA (both 120s now...but if they pop over +135 anywhere intra-day when i look...i'm hitting)
*PHI, that i talked about above, i got it at +145...it's settled back into the the high +120s/low +130s...you can hit it right now at the magic +135 at tsf (b365) or right here at SBR's book if you have tons of points (every point is roughly worth $15 in sportsbook cash if that's available to you...that's how i use and think of my betpoints)...

i'll be your tour guide, and we can follow along using my figures...but in the end, it's your account, and you take/don't take whatever you decide at whatever prices your shopping options & skills give you

[sballen]

So what's your record so far? Wish you luck but you're not trying anything new here FYI. Been tried a millions times before to try and capture that elusive thing called value. Nonetheless, good luck.

[fitguy67]

only 2 days in, see top of #49 above

__________

the angle here obviously isn't the play selection...it's the bet-sizing protocol

basically using the daily-adjusted %roll as my target...meaning in effect, this is balls to the wall full-kelly if the average edge of that infinite deck of baseball-game results is 2%...or half-kelly if that edge is 4%...etc...

if there is no such edge...the whole exercise is pointless...

i personally believe there just has to be a value bulge on the heavily-underloved teams...especially with books knowing that literally-millions of square bettors are buying ML-tickets with almost no regard to price...because they don't want to be "left out" of whatever brand of well-known (to the books as well...) chase they're following, to mention just one obvious source of price-indiscriminate buying of faves

go to the thread i linked to in post #1...and check out the last few pages, some very good research based on indiscriminitely and automatically buying up dogs in various price ranges at either their opening or closing...graphs and reports by "eldian"...always impressive, but "nobody can REALLY do that in practice, can they??" is the attitude, so very few actually try...

I am trying to do just that (seemingly gargantuan when u first consider it...but, in fact we're talking about 5-6 plays a day that qualify on average)...and i am adding in an active and very-realistic attempt to do better than the official mechanical "as if i got" the opener or closer every day at one reference book...by employing a "stable of books" rather than one...in effect giving you close to (if not full) zero chalk lines vs playing only pinny or only 5dimes

____________

this thread is just to help focus my discipline so that i at least follow the plan i made...and to do so for the duration of the season...if you really are curious as to my motivations, expectations and underlying philosophy, read my posts on page 1, especially #1 and #13...

automatically taking all the dogs that look like they'll close in the fairly large statistical "sweet spot" range which we've operationalized as "+135 to 199 inclusive"...and adding enhanced shopping skills to the pre-game side of things...and as for the overall management of things: i incorporate sound "kelly without the capping" or what i called "smoothed kelly" (where the same edge is assumed across the entire fleet of plays...rather than attempting to micro-apply it event-by-event) bet-sizing...and eschew the usual tendency with systems of mechanically-selected FAVORITES to go with ultimately dangersous chasing/line-clearing regimes (necessitated by their chalk overhang...a problem I have avoided completely by mechanically taking the OTHER side)

if you read thru all of my posts thus far, you'll see that this project is first-and-foremost curiosity driven with a self-contained budget that i'm prepared to consider as tuition fees if that's how it unfolds

___________

good luck on whatever angles you operate with and with whatever form they take...

[doogtonmai]

Some falls within Live Play as well. For example, The Orioles was a +135 play after the top half of the fifth inning in a tie game. I was awaiting for them to take the lead to immediately take the Rangers plus money to offset and guarantee a small profit. This game did not work out as planned after the seventh inning (I lost the $v in attempt to win $t). However, this could be another way to add to the pipeline considering the no-handicapping logic.

[fitguy67]

this thread has moved to a new address

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-b...l#post22002521