1. #1
    johnston22587
    johnston22587's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-20-14
    Posts: 7
    Betpoints: 36

    2014 ML Picks

    No system here. Well I guess I do have a system. It's...

    1. Watch a ton of baseball (4-8 games per night)
    2. Read, listen, email, etc. to people who are paid to know about the game
    3. Have an advanced knowledge of baseball analytics and statistics
    4. Detailed knowledge of almost every prospect in the minors, before they get called up
    5. Awareness of how specific injuries affect production
    6. Have an advanced mathematical background
    7. Played the game at a high level

    I am not a fan of plug and play systems. With enough effort, you can make the numbers show whatever you want and convince yourself you have a winning system. Every day is different, and everything is relative. You have to actually watch these games. There is a big difference between losing a game and getting beat.

    You need to have a decent eye to evaluate/scout players. It's not enough to look at someone's numbers and just assume they will regress to the mean.

    Last thing...when you look at the lines every day, don't look for reasons TO bet a certain game. Go through the list only looking for reasons NOT TO. Try to talk yourself out of every bet. If you do this, you will have conviction behind the ones you stick with.

    I've had a good start to the year, but none of that matters now. I'll only track progress from this point forward. If anyone is curious about my record up to this point in the season, feel free to ask and I can document everything.

    If you disagree with anything I said, there's no reason to argue about it...but feel free to ask questions.

    My picks range from 1 to 5 units.


    Picks for 5/20/14

    LAD -130...2
    OAK -125...2
    NYY -170...2

  2. #2
    johnston22587
    johnston22587's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-20-14
    Posts: 7
    Betpoints: 36

    Season Record
    2-1...+.6 units

  3. #3
    johnston22587
    johnston22587's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-20-14
    Posts: 7
    Betpoints: 36

    Picks for 5/21/14

    DET -150...2
    TEX -140...2
    BAL ev...2
    LAD -125...2

  4. #4
    johnston22587
    johnston22587's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-20-14
    Posts: 7
    Betpoints: 36

    Season Record
    4-3...-.4 units

  5. #5
    johnston22587
    johnston22587's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-20-14
    Posts: 7
    Betpoints: 36

    Stl -150...2
    sd -145...2

  6. #6
    johnston22587
    johnston22587's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-20-14
    Posts: 7
    Betpoints: 36

    Season Record
    5-4...-1.3 units

    Plays for 5/23 (all 2 units)
    WAS ev
    LAD -175
    OAK -125
    NYM -125
    NYY -135
    ATL o7 -110

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