1. #1
    adam3248
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    I have created a thread to document my picks & win/loss record. I will post in-depth analysis (including trends & systems) to support my selections. I will grade picks on a scale of 1-3 units depending on my confidence in the pick & will keep my record updated regularly.
    Last edited by adam3248; 05-15-14 at 06:22 PM.

  2. #2
    adam3248
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    Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals

    Kansas have won 6 of their last 8 games whilst limiting their opponents to 3 or fewer runs on 7 of those occassions. They have also won 48 of their previous 70 games as favourite.

    Vendura will be on the mound for Kansas and he's one of the best young starters in the game who still appears to be undervalued by oddsmakers. He faced Baltimore on April 25th, pitching 8 shut-out innings in a 5-0 win. He has gone 2-2 with a 2.34 ERA & 1.110 WHIP with 44 strikeouts in 42 1/3 innings so far this season.

    Chen has been pretty solid for Baltimore this year but isn't on the same level as Ventura. Chen is 0-1 with a 4.60 ERA & 1.404 WHIP in 5 career starts vs Kansas. He's gone 4-2 with a 3.95 ERA & 1.439 WHIP in 7 starts so far this season, including 2-1 with a 5.40 ERA & 1.533 WHIP in 3 road games.

    Supporting this pick is a system that has recorded 40 wins and 8 losses for an impressive 83.3% success rate since 2009, returning 28.4 units profit in the process.

    The system involves backing home favourites with a moneyline of -125 to -175, providing the team's hitters have struck-out 6 or fewer times per game on average throughout the season, vs opposing pitcher's that have allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in each of their previous 2 outings.

    Pick: Kansas City Royals ML @ -125 odds.

    Risking 2.5 Units to win 2 Units.
    Last edited by adam3248; 05-15-14 at 06:25 PM.

  3. #3
    adam3248
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    Record: 0-1 -2.5 units

  4. #4
    adam3248
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    Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels

    The Angels are showing some value tonight at home with their ace Weaver on the mound. He has gone 4-2 with a 3.22 ERA & 1.133 WHIP in his 8 starts this season. He has been most impressive in his last 3 outings, posting a 3-0 record with a 1.83 ERA & 1.119 WHIP.

    The Rays will counter with Archer who has been far from impressive so far this season. He has an elevated 6.35 ERA & 1.676 WHIP in 4 road starts. He has also posted a 7.36 ERA & 1.909 WHIP in his previous 3 outings. In Archer's most recent start against the Angels, he was shelled for 5 runs on 9 hits within just 3 2/3 innings.

    Supporting this pick is a system which has resulted in 98 wins & 44 losses for a 69% success rate dating back to 1997. It involves betting against road teams when to moneyline is +125 to -125 providing it's a 'cold' hitting team, batting .200 or worse through their previous 3 outings, following a game where their bullpen was hit for 4 or more earned runs.

    Pick: Los Angeles Angels ML @ -130 odds.

    Risking 1.95 units to win 1.5 units.
    Last edited by adam3248; 05-16-14 at 04:37 PM.

  5. #5
    adam3248
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    Not a great start but need to remember its a marathon not a sprint. On to the next one..

    Record 0-2 -4.45 units

  6. #6
    adam3248
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    Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs

    Chicago will send out Edwin Jackson for today's game and he's pitched pretty well over his last 2 home starts, surrendering 4 runs on 12 hits with 2 walks during his last 13 innings. The Brewers will counter with Matt Garza who hasn't been at his best so far this season. He has gone 2-3 with a 4.98 ERA & 1.447 WHIP overall after 8 starts. He has been considerably worse on the road this year with an 8.36 ERA and 2.143 WHIP on those 3 occassions. His 3 most recent outings don't read much better either with a 7.07 ERA & 2.071 WHIP. The Cubs offense has also improved as of late, producing an impressive 55 hits in their last 5 games.

    The Cubs have won on 12 of the last 18 occassions after losing 8 or more of their previous 10 games. Supporting a pick on the Cubs is a system which has produced 42 wins and 19 losses over the last 5 seasons resulting in 69% winners. It involves backing against road teams with a moneyline of -100 to -150 who are allowing an average of 3.8 runs per game or less on the season (NL) after both scoring and allowing 5 or fewer runs in each of their 4 most recent games. Taking the value with the Cubs as a home underdog.

    Pick: Chicago Cubs ML @ +112 odds.

    Risking 2 units to win 2.24 units.

  7. #7
    adam3248
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    First winner of the thread (hopefully the first of many!) as the Cubs beat the Brewers 3-0.

    Record: 1-2 -2.21 units.

    No more picks for today. Back tomorrow..
    Points Awarded:

    msy123 gave adam3248 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  8. #8
    adam3248
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    Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals

    There will be two solid pitchers heading to the mound today as Jamie Shields faces off against Ubaldo Jiminez. The Royals ace Shields has a 2.54 ERA so far this season and has been impressive recently, allowing just 1 earned run in his last two starts.

    Jiminez has also been on fire lately for Baltimore, giving up just 1 earned run in his previous three starts with an outstanding 0.69 ERA in the process. The last 2 games played between these two teams have both totalled 5 runs, falling 2 runs short of today's posted total. Both of these teams have been underperforming recently on offense. Kansas have averaged just 2.9 runs whilst hitting .219 as a team over their last 7 games with Baltimore averaging 2.1 runs whilst hitting .218 as a team throughout their previous 7 games.

    Expect a low scoring 3-2 type game here in a pitchers duel.

    Pick: Baltimore v Kansas City UNDER 7 runs @ -112 odds

    Risking 1.68 units to win 1.5 units.
    Last edited by adam3248; 05-18-14 at 12:10 PM.

  9. #9
    adam3248
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    Record: 1-3 -3.89 units.

  10. #10
    adam3248
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    2 picks for tonight: (write-ups to follow)

    Boston Red Sox @ -137 odds
    Risking 4.11 units to win 3 Units.

    Cincinnati Reds @ -102 odds
    Risking 2.55 units to win 2.5 units.

  11. #11
    adam3248
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    Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox

    Tonight's game will feature a pitching matchup of Happ for Toronto and Doubront for Boston. Happ has an ERA of over 5 vs the Red Sox whereas Doubront has had 2 solid home starts against the Jays allowing 4 earned runs in 13+ innings of work.

    Boston has a 10-4 record in games where the posted total is 9 or 9.5. They have also won 10 of 14 games this season vs lefr handed pitchers, scoring an average of 5.3 runs per game.

    Supporting this pick is a system which has cashed an impressive 87% winners since 2004. It involves betting on home favourites in game 1 of a series following a home loss if they scored 2 runs or less, and are now facing a team following a road favoured loss if they also scored 2 runs or less.

    Although Boston have lost 4 straight games, including 3 at home following the sweep by Detroit, I expect Boston to put an end to their losing streak tonight.

    Pick: Boston Red Sox ML @ -137 odds.

    Risking 4.11 units to win 3 units.

  12. #12
    adam3248
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    Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals

    Cueto will be heading to the mound for the Reds tonight and he currently leads the majors with a 1.25 ERA. Cueto has been dominant this season to say the least, going 4-0 with 3 complete games in his last 6 outings. I expect something similar tonight as he faces a Washington line-up that is without Zimmerman, LaRoche and Harper. Although Cueto hasn't pitched on the road since April, he owns a 1.12 ERA and 0.833 WHIP over his 3 road starts this season.

    It's important to note that the Reds line-up will also be missing players with Votto and Bruce both ruled out. However, I still expect the Reds offense to provide enough run support to help Cueto pick up another win. Cincinnati has 23 hits over the last 2 games and will now be facing Doug Fister, who will be making just his 3rd start of the season.

    Supporting this pick is a system which has produced 96 wins and 33 losses dating back to 1997 for 74% winners. It involves backing favourites on the moneyline, providing the pitcher has a 3.70 ERA or better on the season (NL) following a game where the bullpen threw 8 or more innings.

    Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML @ -102 odds.

    Risking 2.55 units to win 2.5 units.

  13. #13
    Capper1124
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    GL to you tonight

  14. #14
    adam3248
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    Record: 1-5 -10.55 units.

  15. #15
    adam3248
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    Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays

    Erik Bedard will be on the hill for the Rays tonight. He has been sensational as of late with a 0.79 ERA over his last 4 starts without giving up a single earned run during his last 15 2/3 innings of work. Oakland will counter with Tommy Millone who has been dissapointing of late, going 1-3 with a 4.10 ERA across his 7 starts this season, recording 1 win and 6 losses on those occassions. Millione also has a history of struggling against the Rays, going 1-2 with a 7.13 ERA in those 3 games.

    Supporting a pick on the Rays is a series of trends totalling 27 wins and 5 losses for 84% winners. This includes, Oakland going 1-6 in Millione's last 7 starts vs AL East opponents, 0-4 in his previous 4 road starts and 0-4 in his last 4 starts vs a team with a losing record. Tampa Bay have gone 13-4 in their last 17 home games against teams with an overall road win percentage of 60+%.

    Pick: Tampa Bay Rays ML @ +102 odds.

    Risking 3 units to win 3.06 units.
    Last edited by adam3248; 05-21-14 at 03:54 PM.

  16. #16
    adam3248
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    Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves

    Ervin Santana will be on the mound for the Braves tonight. He has gone 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA in his 3 home starts this season. Kyle Lohse will be starting for the Brewers and carries a season road ERA of 3.52 into tonight's game. The Braves have won 6 of their last 8 home games in this series and have won 11 of their last 15 games at home when the posted total is 7 or less. The Brewers have won just 2 of their previous 11 games as a road underdog following a road underdog loss by 5+ runs. Milwaukee has also been struggling on offense this past week as they are hitting just .219 during that span.

    Supporting a pick on Atlanta is a system which has recorded 15 wins and just 2 losses since 2005 for 88% winners. It involves backing a home team with a posted total of 8 or less that were home favourites of -140 or more in their previous outing which also had a posted total of 8 or less that won by 5+ runs and had an error in the win, now facing an opponent that are off a road underdog loss by 5+ runs whilst scoring 2 or less runs on 5+ hits.

    Pick: Atlanta Braves ML @ -150 odds.

    Risking 4.5 units to win 3 units.

  17. #17
    adam3248
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    Record: 1-7 -18.05 units.

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