[BAY HORSE]

Question-Does it makes sense to assume that the safest play on a dog you already like to win outright is a TT over play? I noticed often the combined TT in the mlb is less than the game total. The dog TT is a point to a half point less than the fav as well. That combined with the fact that TT odds seem to carry less juice than playing the spread? Anyone have any thoughts here?

[aznfirebat]

Nope i think that is very wrong. Just because a dog team win doesn't mean the game is over. A game could go under because the team is favored doesn't mean they will always score. Plus if you think the dog team will win out right, then why not take the extra + money?

[BAY HORSE]

The game total could easily go under but the dog team total may still go over. I'm thinking a dog may be +150 with a game total of 8 and a TT split of 3.5 to 4 on the fav. A +1.5 spread may be -110 where the TT 3.5 might be +105. Now I see that one or even two of the better cappers have my dog to win outright, so even if I put $ on the ml I could put a play on the TT as well instead of the usual larger play on the +spread. Or if its the dogs pitching expected to control the game the same reasoning might work on a TT under play on the fav.

[BAY HORSE]

Also the bullpen cant screw up a TT over like it can a ml or play on the spread. Neither can extra innings. If the TT hits you can relax and watch the game without the possibility of mid relief making you want to put a belt around your neck.