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05/06/14 mlb info & pitcher ratings + 5-game fade the public chase
0-1 on Monday. 34-34 YTD.
Tuesday' mojo report:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...rive_web#gid=0
Its going to be 3 straight-up faith plays today -- faith in the mojo. No fundamental handicapper will promptly make recommendations to make bets against a pitcher like Kershaw, another solid hurler in Hudson, and a bet against the best home team in the league.
In the long run, a card like this should be profitable:
Nationals +165
Pirates +104
Mets +110
3 bets against the public. They happen to be underdogs because...
thats the way it is.
Public plays go down in flames everyday in MLB. Just have to hit the spots.
5-GAME CHASE SYSTEM:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...rive_web#gid=0
This is my 4th season of compiling and keeping track of the daily sheets. So i have been testing two chase systems for a while: 1) a 3-game anti-sweep chase; 2) a 5-game "fade the public" chase.
I've decided to scrap the anti-sweep. The anti-public plays hit at a much better rate. And you don't have to wait until a series is over to start a new chase. You've seen it and i've said it -- public plays go down in flames every single day.
And personally, i would hate to be on the wrong side of a sweep. Thats a huge wipe-out when you're doubling-down two times.
A majority of the anti-public plays will be underdogs. In which case their is no need to double-down. Unless you're feeling greedy.
I would recommend 1% of bankroll and then a 55%-75% martingale of the first loss in the chase.
A 75% martingale starting with $10 will look something like this:
$10 - $17 - $29 - $51 - $89
Ultimately risking about 20% of bankroll by the 5th try. Versus 30% if doubling-down the 1%.
The martingale can be adjusted according to confidence on the wager and/or inherent value in the line.
Let start. The first of five in Chase 1 is...
Mets +110
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Originally Posted by Big Bear
