[No coincidences]

Shark has a 1.53 ERA. Simon has a 1.30 ERA. Cubs can't hit. Reds can't hit. Yet the total has gone from 7 to 7.5 and rising? Hmm....

[jayson311]

Is that game even gonna get played?

[shaggydog88]

Simon literally just got a rape case filed against him yesterday and after reading everything he seems guilty of buying a hooker and taking her ass without permission. Might weigh on him. Like the cubs if game plays lol

[bigben1985]

Cubs in the 1st 5 innings is the play of the night. Samardzija gets the job done and Simon doesn't. If anyone wants a legitimate analysis of this game I'll post one but the end result is Cubs win the first 5 - no promises on the full game.

[Big Bear]

Cubs in the 1st 5 innings is the play of the night. Samardzija gets the job done and Simon doesn't. If anyone wants a legitimate analysis of this game I'll post one but the end result is Cubs win the first 5 - no promises on the full game.

yes please give a legit analysis. I am looking for a game to bet tonight and my confidence is shot after a rough week full of bad beats.

[PaperTrail07]

You just never know about this shit.........He could be innocent or guilty....raped but wants 10 M .....hmmm...

[SToth22]

Surprised if this one gets played. Samardzija will out pitch Simon, but that DEFINITELY doesn't mean a Cubs win. Their offense is a nightmare. Castro had a great day yesterday, no doubt that means 5 or 6 days until his next hit...

[StevenAdams]

Hate those two teams!

[bigben1985]

yes please give a legit analysis. I am looking for a game to bet tonight and my confidence is shot after a rough week full of bad beats.

Let's start with Simon. Why is he 3-1 with a 1.30 ERA? He doesn't strike many batters out and he will issue some walks. Well, he's a ground ball pitcher so he doesn't give up many home runs. This has been good for him because the Reds don't give him a lot of run support (11 runs in his 4 starts). The reason his numbers look so impressive is because his BABIP is .197 (BA .172). Add a groundballer to .197 BABIP and you get a lot of stranded runners, almost 92%. He also is almost immune to the SAC fly. But a .197 BABIP is very difficult to maintain during a season and his is likely to trend up toward career average of .291.

Now why would tonight be the night they start to trend up? Samardzija is probably the best thing the Cubs have going and he doesn't have a win yet. The Cubs want to get him that win. And they can hit Simon. The Cubs lineup isn't released yet but they have many batters that have hit Simon before though most have limited at bats against him. The Cubs have nothing to lose tonight. They haven't given Samardzija run support this year so if they try and fail it is status quo. But they will be trying tonight to get him some runs. And they will try to score early and get to Simon.

Why will they be able to? The Cubs strike out a lot (rank 28). Simon doesn't strike out many batters. As pitchers tend to control strike outs this give the Cubs the advantage. So if the Cubs aren't striking out they have to be making some contact (or walking). When they are making contact they are likely not putting it up in the air, which is fine because they are not a HR team. They need some balls to find holes tonight and with a groundball pitcher that doesn't have great strikeout command there should be plenty of opportunities. The Cubs hitters also have a miserable K/BB ratio which should improve tonight given the situation.

I expect the Cubs to come out aggressive. They will swing, make contact, and will get more production than their average. I see the Cubs putting up 3 or 4 runs in the first 5 innings while Samardzija holds the Reds to 1 or 2 runs. Also see this one going over the total.

[Big Bear]

Let's start with Simon. Why is he 3-1 with a 1.30 ERA? He doesn't strike many batters out and he will issue some walks. Well, he's a ground ball pitcher so he doesn't give up many home runs. This has been good for him because the Reds don't give him a lot of run support (11 runs in his 4 starts). The reason his numbers look so impressive is because his BABIP is .197 (BA .172). Add a groundballer to .197 BABIP and you get a lot of stranded runners, almost 92%. He also is almost immune to the SAC fly. But a .197 BABIP is very difficult to maintain during a season and his is likely to trend up toward career average of .291.

Now why would tonight be the night they start to trend up? Samardzija is probably the best thing the Cubs have going and he doesn't have a win yet. The Cubs want to get him that win. And they can hit Simon. The Cubs lineup isn't released yet but they have many batters that have hit Simon before though most have limited at bats against him. The Cubs have nothing to lose tonight. They haven't given Samardzija run support this year so if they try and fail it is status quo. But they will be trying tonight to get him some runs. And they will try to score early and get to Simon.

Why will they be able to? The Cubs strike out a lot (rank 28). Simon doesn't strike out many batters. As pitchers tend to control strike outs this give the Cubs the advantage. So if the Cubs aren't striking out they have to be making some contact (or walking). When they are making contact they are likely not putting it up in the air, which is fine because they are not a HR team. They need some balls to find holes tonight and with a groundball pitcher that doesn't have great strikeout command there should be plenty of opportunities. The Cubs hitters also have a miserable K/BB ratio which should improve tonight given the situation.

I expect the Cubs to come out aggressive. They will swing, make contact, and will get more production than their average. I see the Cubs putting up 3 or 4 runs in the first 5 innings while Samardzija holds the Reds to 1 or 2 runs. Also see this one going over the total.

nice write up . thank you

[bigben1985]

Just saw the Cubs lineup and looks good. Schierholtz and Lake are out. Exactly what we wanted to see vs Simon.