1. 03-30-07 05:15 PM #1
    imgv94
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    imgv Monday Baseball Plays (YTD 0-0)

    (YTD 0-0)

    Had a horrible season last year losing thousands upon thousands of dollars following cappers who I thought knew what they were doing but ended up being complete frauds and my own horrible square handicapping as well.. This season will be different as I look more into betting dogs.

    Hopefully this season will be better.. Good Luck everyone and hope to see all the boys doing well this season...


    YTD: 0-0


    1* Rockies +109

    1* Orioles +1½ +100

    0.65* NY Yankees -170
    0.35* NY Yankees -1½ +125


    Good Luck to you..
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  2. 03-30-07 05:59 PM #2
    Razz
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    Good luck GV, I'm probably going to play the Rocks as well.
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  3. 03-30-07 08:07 PM #3
    imgv94
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    Thanks. Rockets are going to be pretty good this season I think..
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  4. 03-30-07 09:36 PM #4
    austintx05
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    IMGV - Do you mind if I make some pointers that might help you out? I am a dog bettor in baseball as well...just a thought...
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  5. 03-30-07 10:31 PM #5
    Doc JS
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    Quote Originally Posted by austintx05 View Post
    IMGV - Do you mind if I make some pointers that might help you out? I am a dog bettor in baseball as well...just a thought...
    Austin,

    Even if IMGV isn't interested (but I suspect he is), I sure am. Please point away!

    Thanks,

    Doc JS
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  6. 03-30-07 11:02 PM #6
    imgv94
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    Yes sir I am open to all advice!! Thanks in advance!!!!!!!!
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  7. 03-31-07 02:57 AM #7
    austintx05
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    Well I am not the answer by any means when it comes to MLB betting, but I set soem rules for myself when betting. I never lay more than -140...its just not worth it to pay more than that and find out.

    I woudl have to go back in my numbers form last year, but I tracked Toronto/Boston/NYY on the RL.

    On the games they won NYY 68% were by 2+ runs...Toronto was actually the highest in the low 70% range. I view a RL like an underdog. Little bit riskier, but reward is worth it. MLB is THE dog sport, so keep that in mind. Seen Mussina lay -330 at home to KC and lose...just not worth.

    In regards to your bet, I see NY winning this game and I will probabaly be on the RL myself.

    I also break down the season into 2 parts

    1. Pre-All - Star Break - Bet fundamentally...the way you would cap a game..matchups/pitching/bullpen...etc

    2. Post-All-Star Break- This is the grind part of the season and especially in the months of August/Sept dogs are barkign loud and clear. I pay more attention to sharp money during the grind. KC went into Minnesota and beat Johan...shit happens and this is the part where I see a lot of people lose their ass.

    Now typically at the end of August I call it a season, as there is hardly anything left. PLayoffs I feel its back to fundamentals, but you also need to grasp on where a team is and if you can get a good read on them. I felt I had a good read on STL last year and I took a futuere wager on them to win it all when the playoffs started...luckily it paid off...

    I have read a lot abotu baseball betting and it really is the one sport that aseems easy, yet is very difficult to beat at times. I am rambling a bit and have more info...but will wait to see if anyone wants to hear anymore...

    Good luck to all of us on the '07 season...

    Play Ball!
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  8. 03-31-07 10:46 AM #8
    Crayzee
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    one word of caution on the yankees:
    no one really knows what there going to get out of pavano
    i know its opening day-its only against tampa bay and it is the goddamm yankees for christsakes
    but them giving a line that low to yankees opening day vs t bay would scare me just a little
    pavano has not played in over a year and he is an nl pitcher coming to the al
    of course kazmir can be lights out on any given day

    good luck
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  9. 03-31-07 11:21 AM #9
    imgv94
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    austin I want to hear more.. I liked what you had to say..
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  10. 03-31-07 12:48 PM #10
    austintx05
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    W RL Cover %
    NYY 97 73 75%
    Tor 87 68 78%
    Bos 86 56 65%
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  11. 03-31-07 12:57 PM #11
    austintx05
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    Looks like I was a little off as NYY's % was higher than I remembered.

    Basically when you bet these teams, more often than not you are going to see heavy chalk..especially at the top of the rotation. Look at the Yankees in the chart above...97 wins and 73 of those wins were by 2 or more runs. Now you are not going to call every single RL...but the idea is that when they win, they win by 2+. I would rather have a bet on +130, than on -180.

    Now I truly believe that in betting baseball you have to bet the odds accordingly. The best example I can give from last year was when Boston traveled to NYY and it was Beckett/Mussina. I believe Pinnacle opened +140/-132. Beckett had been pitching very well and the ML was bet down to -112. Just the fact that the Yankees were -112 at home is bargain enough for me and then add to the fact that you got Moose on the mound. Yanks won by 6+ that night...Beckett never saw the 3rd inning etc. A lot of the time you will get a team's ace on the road create a value price on the home team. Boston @ Minnesota..Schilling/Santana...not sure of you remember the game but Twins won in the bottom of the 11th...grand slam off of Tavarez. Santana was bet down to -120 which is pretty low for him. Also, most people when betting on pitchers only bet on the starter...but unless your betting on Halladay or Santana, the bullpen is going to pitch as much as the starter. So I always take into consideration with the bullpen.
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  12. 03-31-07 01:02 PM #12
    austintx05
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    When starting the season, I try to pinpoint team who I think will get off to a fast start.

    Toronto/NYY/Boston/NYM

    These 4 teams have such heavy run production that it enables them to get off to a quick start. Thereis not fatrigue in the pen, so the bats do the talkin.

    Teams that start off slow

    Oakland/LAA/Minnesota

    Not a lot of run production and more pitching/defense oriented....
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  13. 03-31-07 01:04 PM #13
    imgv94
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    Yeah I've heard it's not smart to put too much credence into starting pitching..

    I know I did that last season and got killed..
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  14. 03-31-07 01:07 PM #14
    imgv94
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    Quote Originally Posted by austintx05 View Post
    When starting the season, I try to pinpoint team who I think will get off to a fast start.

    Toronto/NYY/Boston/NYM

    These 4 teams have such heavy run production that it enables them to get off to a quick start. Thereis not fatrigue in the pen, so the bats do the talkin.

    Teams that start off slow

    Oakland/LAA/Minnesota

    Not a lot of run production and more pitching/defense oriented....

    Austin this is good shjt right here man.. Angels usually start slow like you say.. First 40gms around .500

    Good stuff man I'm impressed and appreciate this a lot friend..
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  15. 03-31-07 01:46 PM #15
    austintx05
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    No problem bro...Baseball is my fav sport and the one I know the most inside and out...I won over 50 units last season...so hopefully I can produce similar results...

    Best of luck to you too buddy....
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  16. 03-31-07 01:54 PM #16
    imgv94
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    Yeah that is how I am with the NFL.. It's my favorite sport know it inside and out and believe that is why it's been my most successful venture..

    But going back to what you have said, it makes a lot of sense and I'm sure you will do well..
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  17. 03-31-07 01:56 PM #17
    austintx05
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    Oh and 1 other thing I forgot to add...

    When 2 Over tyeam eet early in the season...don't overthink playing the Over...

    ie...Toronto/Boston/NYY/NYM/Cinci/Phillies..etc...

    First couple months last year to open the season...Toronto home Overs were hitting at a 70% clip....

    FYI
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  18. 03-31-07 02:03 PM #18
    imgv94
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    What % of dogs do you wager on? Whats the ratio?
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  19. 03-31-07 02:24 PM #19
    austintx05
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    I would say for every 10 bets 7-8 of them are dogs

    Most of the favs I bet on are either a RL or a short price on a home team.

    General rules I make for myself

    1. Never pay more than -140
    2. Never lay road chalk unless the situation is absolutely necessary. I just try to avoid road chalk, because of so many blown leads by bullpens on the road.
    3. Never lay chalk on a RL
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  20. 03-31-07 02:27 PM #20
    austintx05
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    Most bettors I would say become infatuated with the "YTD Recrdo" and %'s...but especially with baseball...if you ahave a .500 record you have made a lot of money...Like I said earlier...last year I hit about 52.5% betting 75% dogs and I escaped the season with 50 units...

    I have had seveal 1-2 days in baseball and still been in the (+)
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  21. 03-31-07 02:40 PM #21
    onlooker
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    You are right at where I am at laying chalk. I rarely go over -140. Have did -145/-150's before, but not very often.
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  22. 04-02-07 03:01 AM #22
    rjt721
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    Good stuff Austin. Hope you have as much success this season.

    Best of luck imgv.
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  23. 04-02-07 07:21 AM #23
    Willie Bee
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    Quote Originally Posted by imgv94 View Post
    Had a horrible season last year losing thousands upon thousands of dollars following cappers who I thought knew what they were doing but ended up being complete frauds and my own horrible square handicapping as well.. This season will be different as I look more into betting dogs.
    Wish you better luck this season, GV. Who were the cappers that so horribly misled you last year so that others might avoid them this season?
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  24. 04-02-07 08:23 AM #24
    JBC77
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crayzee View Post
    one word of caution on the yankees:
    no one really knows what there going to get out of pavano
    i know its opening day-its only against tampa bay and it is the goddamm yankees for christsakes
    but them giving a line that low to yankees opening day vs t bay would scare me just a little
    pavano has not played in over a year and he is an nl pitcher coming to the al
    of course kazmir can be lights out on any given day

    good luck
    I agree. I'm sticking with the NBA for a few more days, but I am going to get my feet wet a bit today. Pirates +1 1/2 -115, I usually don't put weight on last years stats, but Houston just doesn't score alot of runs. Good luck boys.
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  25. 04-02-07 01:14 PM #25
    JBC77
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    Pavano....looks like he's holding it down.
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  26. 04-02-07 03:46 PM #26
    austintx05
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    Yankees!
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  27. 04-02-07 04:08 PM #27
    Filthyness
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    the astros picked up carlos lee which will add a lot of offense to their team. with him hitting around berkman, a decent combination. i am looking at taking houston -1.5
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