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MLB April Pitchers to Watch
MLB April Pitchers – 2007 Edition
By: L.T. Profit Sports Group
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/
3/29/2007 6:58:41 PM
Well folks, it is that time of the year again as the Major League Baseball season kicks off this Sunday night, April 1. Now we may be in the minority in that we give much more weight to bullpen ERA than we do to starting pitching, but we do generally do not start betting seriously based on pen ERA until May 1.
So what do we do for the month of April, you may ask? Well, we firmly believe starting pitchers have a pattern of starting out the season either hot or cold, and that they generally stick to their patterns year in and year out. Therefore, most of our early season wagers are based on the overall team records when certain pitchers start in April.
To this end, we have analyzed the April team records from 2004 to 2006 for all 150 current projected Major League starting pitchers. We have found that of those that have had at least 10 April starts in this three-year span, 14 pitchers have a team winning percentage of greater than 66 percent, and seven pitchers have a team winning percentage of less than 36 percent. As we have already stated, these pitching patterns seem to repeat themselves from year to year, so we see no reason why this season should be different.
First, let us take a look at the hot April starters, which will be our “play ons” for the month. Please note that these April records are those of the team when each pitcher starts, and not of the pitchers themselves.
APRIL STARTS – 2004 to 2006
Code:Pitcher Team W L Pct Arroyo Cin 10 3 76.9% Beckett Bos 10 5 66.7% Buehrle CWS 10 5 66.7% Carpenter SL 10 5 66.7% Halladay Tor 10 5 66.7% Harden Oak 9 3 75.0% Lee Cle 11 4 73.3% Maddux SD 10 5 66.7% Maroth Det 10 4 71.4% Perez,Od KC 11 4 73.3% Ponson Min 10 5 66.7% Santana Min 11 4 73.3% Schilling Bos 10 4 71.4% Webb Ari 11 5 68.8%
The cumulative team record when these pitchers started in April was 143-61, 70.1 percent. Of course, that in itself means nothing of these starters are -200 or higher, as oftentimes happens with Carpenter, Halladay, Santana and Schilling. However, there is usually value to be found in the others starters, and if anyone on this list turns up as an underdog in April, they would virtually be an automatic play.
Next, let us take a look at the seven cold April starters, which are our “play againsts” for the month. Again, all records are team records and not pitcher records.
APRIL STARTS – 2004 to 2006
Code:Pitcher Team W L Pct Hernandez,L Ari 6 11 35.3% Milwood Tex 4 12 25.0% Pettitte NYY 4 9 30.6% Smoltz Atl 3 7 30.0% Towers Tor 2 10 16.7% Westbrook Cle 3 8 27.3% Zito SF 3 12 20.0%
The cumulative team record of these slow starters is 25-69, which means that going against them in every April start the last three years would have produced a winning percentage of 73.4 percent. Just as with any other angle, make sure to get some good value when playing against these starters. These are obviously automatic fades if they turn up as favorites, and if they are underdogs, we would look to play against them if you can get their opponents at -125 or less.
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Originally Posted by LT Profits
