[Willie Bee]

Can Cardinals Repeat?

Coming off their 10th World Series title in franchise history, the Cards have reworked their starting rotation as they look to repeat on top of the baseball world.

Famous last words: "No team with Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter can be completely counted out, but of all the potential playoff teams, the Cardinals have to be the best bet right now to get knocked out in the first round."

Those words appeared in a USA Today.com article last September with a little more than a week to go in the regular season. St. Louis almost didn’t make the playoffs, period, as an end-of-season swoon took them to the final day of the regular season slate before they wrapped up the NL Central title with 83 wins.

But once in the postseason, the Cards made it count, getting past San Diego in four games to win the NLDS, taking the Mets to seven games before winning the NLCS in New York, and then dispatching the favored Tigers in five World Series games. The triumph marked their 10th World Championship, and first since the Rat, White Herzog, managed them to the Promised Land in 1982.

The 2006 season marked St. Louis’ fifth NL Central title in the past seven seasons. And now, with fresh hardware in the trophy case and on their fingers, the Redbirds set out to prove their title last season was no fluke, and will do so with a few new faces or a few faces in new roles.

OFFENSE
The offense was a one-man show in 2006 as Pujols led the team in just about every category: Runs, Hits, Homers, RBI, Walks, Average, On-Base and Slugging. A few more steals and Phat Albert could’ve been #1 in that column as well. Pujols will most likely lead the team in those same categories this season as well.

The only newcomer to the infield will be second sacker Adam Kennedy who was signed last November. Originally a first round pick by St. Louis in 1997, Kennedy has now come full circle and will be expected to play defense and provide a little speed in an order that has missed that element of the game the past couple of seasons.

The left side of the infield is back with Scott Rolen at third and David Eckstein, the MVP of the World Series, at short. A year removed from a shoulder injury that caused him to miss more than 100 games in 2005, Rolen rebounded nicely last season culminating with an excellent World Series in which he hit .421, homered and scored five times.

Eckstein, who looks like he should still be playing high school ball, missed some time last year with injury and managed to drive in just 23 runs in 123 regular season games. But the little shortstop turned it on in the World Series with some timely hits good enough to drive in four key runs, and become the first position player to win the Series MVP without hitting a home run since Bucky Dent did so for the 1978 New York Yankees.

Infield backups right now appear to be Aaron Miles up the middle and Scott Spiezio for the corners. If need be, St. Louis would dip into the minors and bring up Edgar Gonzalez.

Like Eckstein, catcher Yadier Molina didn’t have a great regular season. In fact, Molina’s 2006 offensive numbers pretty well stunk it up: .216 batting average, six homers. But he turned it on in the postseason with 19 hits in the 16 St. Louis postseason games (.358 avg), and his homer in Game 7 of the NLCS propelled the Cards to their 17th NL Pennant. Gary Bennett will once again back Molina up.

The outfield is banged up coming out of spring. Jim Edmonds is coming off shoulder and foot surgeries, but will apparently be able to answer the bell on Opening Night this Sunday against the Mets. Juan Encarnacion had surgery on his left wrist and will start the year on the DL.

Chris Duncan, son of pitching coach Dave Duncan, was a key member of the team in 2006, banging 22 homers in just 90 games, and he will play left. So Taguchi and Preston Wilson will see plenty of action off the bench in the early going. And don’t be surprised to see Rick Ankiel on the big league club at some point this season as the former pitcher tries to battle his way back into the bigs as a power-hitting outfielder.

PITCHING
The only regular from the rotation who is back this season is Chris Carpenter. The right-hander almost defended his 2005 NL Cy Young with a 15-8, 3.09 campaign last season, and will be the Cards’ starter on Opening night. Since joining St. Louis before the 2004 season, Carpenter is 51-18 with a 3.23 ERA 93 starts.

The four arms behind Carpenter in the Redbirds rotation this year will be Kip Wells, Braden Looper, Adam Wainwright and Anthony Reyes. Looper and Wainwright pitched out of the pen primarily for St. Louis a year ago, though Wainwright did make a few starts. But by season’s end he was the team’s closer and was a key part of the bullpen that helped pitch the Cards to the ’06 championship. Looper has made 572 big league mound appearances in his career, all of them as a reliever. Reyes will finally get his chance to stick in the rotation coming out of Spring Training.

Wells was signed away from Texas in the offseason and the former first round pick by the White Sox out of Baylor in 1998 hopes to finally realize some of the potential he’s long been listed as having. Teaming him with pitching guru Dave Duncan has so far worked well as Wells has allowed just three runs, two earned, in 17 spring frames. In fact all five starters St. Louis will begin the season with have been enjoying excellent springs with Carpenter’s 3.48 ERA the highest of the bunch.

The one drawback, if it is indeed a drawback, is all five are right-handers. The Cardinals hope to have lefty Mark Mulder back around the All-Star break to give them a portsider in the mix.

Another drawback is that by moving Looper and Wainwright into the rotation, the bullpen will naturally be a little weaker. Well, maybe it will and maybe it won’t. Having a healthy Jason Isringhausen back in the closer’s role will go a long way to disproving that statement. Returning from the hip injury that ended his 2006 prematurely, Izzy has been eased into action this spring but all reports are he will be good to go on Opening Night.

While there is a lack of left-handers in the rotation, manager Tony La Russa has plenty to choose from down in his pen. Ricardo Rincon, coming off both shoulder and elbow surgery, is one option, with Randy Flores, Randy Keisler and Tyler Johnson also figuring into the mix. Rincon, Flores and Keisler have had solid springs while Johnson has struggled.

Brad Thompson, a right-hander, figures to be the prominent setup arm, with Josh Hancock, Ryan Franklin and Russ Springer also battling for jobs.

Key Player(s): To start with, the depth in the outfield will be tested. So that makes Preston Wilson a key player until Jim Edmonds and Juan Encarnacion are full-strength. Scott Rolen’s ability to ‘protect’ Albert Pujols in the lineup is another critical component on offense.

But the starting rotation behind Chris Carpenter, and Jason Isringhausen’s job as closer, will be the reason St. Louis either defends their NL Central title, or fails to do so, in 2007.

Futures: The Greek has their win total for St. Louis listed at 84½ (the under at +105), and has the Cards +185 to win the NL Central, +805 to win the NL and +1015 to successfully defend their MLB title. Bodog makes their win break at 85 with the Redbirds a 7:5 favorite in their division, 15:2 in the National League and 13:1 to win it all. Pinnacle also has 85 for the over/under on wins with the Cardinals +1269 to win the World Series, +611 to head to their third Fall Classic in the past four seasons and +160 to win the NLC.

St. Louis ran 10 winning sims, with the lowest win total on the chart 83. I like the over at those three books right now, and project St. Louis at 88-89 wins.

[bigboydan]

The Cardinals pitching staff this year is way too suspect to even really give them as much consideration to repeat winning the world series, much less there division.

St.Louis is converting two relievers into starters this year in Looper and Wienright. Then they sign a pitcher in Kip Wells who can't even stay healthy for a full season. Not to mention the fact that Reyas is only a 2nd pitcher.

I think that Over/Under total of 85 is about the right price for this team, based off there offensive production explosion. However, you have to have at least some type of decent pitching in order to win. I personally would bet the under 85 games this year without hesitation.

[Razz]

Carpenter of course has a good year, Reyes has a breakout year, but after that, it's really ugly. LaRussa may get a couple more DUIs this summer.

[EBone]

Dan,

Wainwright's heritage is as a starter. He made the team last year as a setup man. Wainwright did an unbelievable job as the closer last year but I think most would view him as a starter who was forced to close last year. So, I think they have 4 starters with one reliever turned into a starter (Looper).

I cringe to think how Looper is going to do as a starter. I have zero confidence in that dude. If Kip Wells is the Pittsburgh version of Kip Wells, then I think the rotation will be fine. If not, look out.


E

[Willie Bee]

I agree with EBone here, think Carpenter-Wainwright-Wells have great potential at the top of a rotation and Looper is the rotation's biggest question mark. This entire staff as a whole has been on fire this spring and not a lot has been made of it. The over at the present numbers is the only way to play this team, can't imagine anyone coming up with under 78% probability for them to go over the mid-80s.

[Wassymac]

I can understand the concerns about the rotation but if somebody can find me a prop of last year's rotation vs this year's rotation than I'll take this year in nearly any positive category.

When you think about it the starting rotation (outside of Carpenter) couldn't have performed worse last season. I've heard a lot about the loss of Suppan and Weaver and while Suppan will be missed he did not have a very consistent year. Weaver on the other hand was only worthwhile in the postseason.

These are the innings they will need to replace and you realize they aren't missing anything (at least based on the 2006 regular season):

Suppan 190 inn 4.12 ERA 1.45 WHIP .277 BAA
Marquis 194 inn 6.02 ERA 1.52 WHIP .289 BAA
Mulder 93.1 inn 7.14 ERA 1.70 WHIP .327 BAA
Reyes 85.1 inn 5.06 ERA 1.36 WHIP .262 BAA
Weaver 83.1 inn 5.18 ERA 1.50 WHIP .297 BAA
Ponson 68.2 inn 5.24 ERA 1.24 WHIP .308 BAA

I included Reyes in there as I think its reasonable to expect a significant upgrade in performance as he joins the team from the start rather than throwing 100+ innings in AAA and then moving up. Throw his own numbers from last year together with Ponson's and I think you get a very conservative # of innings to replace and likely an improvement in performance. He likely falls in the 3 or 4 slot IMO depending on Wells.

The only concern with Wainright moving back to a starter is the arm it removes from the bullpen and not that he'll be able to handle it. I think he'll establish himself as the #2 starter when its all said and done. The confidence boost of the postseason really seems to have helped him as he pitched with more confidence with each successful appearance. I'd be shocked if he doesn't at least match Suppan's #'s.

Wells is tough to project but he's thrown well all spring without any mention of discomfort. It may be risky to plan on him matching Marquis' 190+ innings but I don't feel its out of the question being that he averaged 160 innings a season from 2002-2005 before the injury plagued 2006. Lets be honest here though and state that even if he doesn't and spends time on the DL it won't be difficult for the Cards to throw someone out there to put up Marquis like #'s from 2006.

That leaves the leftover innings (Mulder's from 2006) to be scooped up by Looper likely to be followed by a couple other arms (Franklin, Narveson, Thompson) if he falters. The #5 slot was absolutely horrid for the Cards all year long so I think you can call it a wash at the very worst. They sacrificed 4-6 wins just checking to see if Mulder really was hurt and let him serve up gopher ball after gopher ball.

Just my thoughts and while I don't expect them to be great I do expect a better regular season rotation than last years debacle. When you throw in the outside chance that Mulder actually recovers and the fact that the Cards have some $$ available to trade when the right arm becomes available you'll be looking at a more than capable rotation to defend the Central title.

[EBone]

I can understand the concerns about the rotation but if somebody can find me a prop of last year's rotation vs this year's rotation than I'll take this year in nearly any positive category.

When you think about it the starting rotation (outside of Carpenter) couldn't have performed worse last season. I've heard a lot about the loss of Suppan and Weaver and while Suppan will be missed he did not have a very consistent year. Weaver on the other hand was only worthwhile in the postseason.

These are the innings they will need to replace and you realize they aren't missing anything (at least based on the 2006 regular season):

Suppan 190 inn 4.12 ERA 1.45 WHIP .277 BAA
Marquis 194 inn 6.02 ERA 1.52 WHIP .289 BAA
Mulder 93.1 inn 7.14 ERA 1.70 WHIP .327 BAA
Reyes 85.1 inn 5.06 ERA 1.36 WHIP .262 BAA
Weaver 83.1 inn 5.18 ERA 1.50 WHIP .297 BAA
Ponson 68.2 inn 5.24 ERA 1.24 WHIP .308 BAA

I included Reyes in there as I think its reasonable to expect a significant upgrade in performance as he joins the team from the start rather than throwing 100+ innings in AAA and then moving up. Throw his own numbers from last year together with Ponson's and I think you get a very conservative # of innings to replace and likely an improvement in performance. He likely falls in the 3 or 4 slot IMO depending on Wells.

The only concern with Wainright moving back to a starter is the arm it removes from the bullpen and not that he'll be able to handle it. I think he'll establish himself as the #2 starter when its all said and done. The confidence boost of the postseason really seems to have helped him as he pitched with more confidence with each successful appearance. I'd be shocked if he doesn't at least match Suppan's #'s.

Wells is tough to project but he's thrown well all spring without any mention of discomfort. It may be risky to plan on him matching Marquis' 190+ innings but I don't feel its out of the question being that he averaged 160 innings a season from 2002-2005 before the injury plagued 2006. Lets be honest here though and state that even if he doesn't and spends time on the DL it won't be difficult for the Cards to throw someone out there to put up Marquis like #'s from 2006.

That leaves the leftover innings (Mulder's from 2006) to be scooped up by Looper likely to be followed by a couple other arms (Franklin, Narveson, Thompson) if he falters. The #5 slot was absolutely horrid for the Cards all year long so I think you can call it a wash at the very worst. They sacrificed 4-6 wins just checking to see if Mulder really was hurt and let him serve up gopher ball after gopher ball.

Just my thoughts and while I don't expect them to be great I do expect a better regular season rotation than last years debacle. When you throw in the outside chance that Mulder actually recovers and the fact that the Cards have some $$ available to trade when the right arm becomes available you'll be looking at a more than capable rotation to defend the Central title.

Agree with everything Wassymac said here. Excellent post. Even since last year, I've been more concerned with the everyday lineup than the pitching (I agree that the bullpen is a bit of a concern though this year). You take Pujols out of that lineup and you basically have a AAA lineup. There's a lot of guys with guts in the everyday lineup but not a lot of talent. I love Rolen but he's just so fragile. To me, Edmonds is half (maybe less) of what he was in his hay day. I'm always in a "glass half empty" kind of mode in March. I hope I'm wrong about the everyday lineup.


E

[Razz]

I don't understand all the love for Wells, and there's no way you can legitimately expect him to have more success than Reyes. Reyes's WHIP will be at least 0.25 better and his ERA will be around a run better.

[Illusion]

The central is gonna be a warzone this year. The Cards may repeat, but it will come down to the final week of the season if they do.

[Wassymac]

I don't understand all the love for Wells, and there's no way you can legitimately expect him to have more success than Reyes. Reyes's WHIP will be at least 0.25 better and his ERA will be around a run better.

Reyes has a ton of potential and seems to have figured out how to pitch a little better vs just throw this spring. I'm just being conservative in expectations for him because of his lack of efficiency at the Major League level (besides two incredible starts he seemed to be at the 100 pitch mark at inning 5 game after game). He's been much more efficient recently realizing its ok to let a hitter get himself out every once in a while.

I think Reyes and Wells will be battling for that 3 spot and would love to see Reyes' ERA a run lower than Well as the Cards rotation would be in fine shape if that is the case. The Wells signing will turn out to be a very good one I believe compared to the ridiculous money given to bad to mediocre starters. I don't think its out of the question that he reverts back to his 2002, 2003 form after his surgeries last season (of course it's also possible that he doesn't pan out). I think it will help him to have that experienced infield behind him along with a catcher who shuts down the running game.

At any rate the Central will be interesting to watch and any one of 4 (Cards, Brewers, Cubs, Stros) have a reasonable shot to win this thing but until somebody steps up this is the Cards division to lose.

Cards 86-88 wins
Brewers 84-86 wins
Astros 79-81 wins
Cubs 77-79 wins
Reds 71-73 wins
Pirates 69-71 wins