[Willie Bee]

Mets team to beat in NL East

Coming out of spring with a shaky mound that will eventually settle down, the Mets will eventually win 90 games and take the NL East again this year.

Ah, the Amazin’s. A team that can be both hard to like but difficult not to love at times.

The Metropolitans were just a pitch away from their fifth trip to the Fall Classic last year, falling to the eventual World Series champs St. Louis in a Game 7 NLCS thriller. When Endy Chavez made one of the greatest catches ever in the sixth inning of Game 7, not only robbing Scott Rolen of a home run but doubling Jim Edmonds off first base as well, New York seemed to have the momentum that would carry them past the Cardinals. In fact, I came close to just turning the set off as I fully expected the Mets to turn a 1-1 game at the time into a 5-1, 6-1 clincher.

But it didn’t happen. Yadier Molina’s blast in the ninth decided it, 3-1, and sent a drenched New York crowd home disappointed after a fantastic season.

The Mets battled starting pitching woes all year, and the consensus is their pitching will trouble them again this year. That may be so, especially early on in the season when a few arms are missing due to injuries or suspension. But come October, I fully expect this team to be playing on once again.

OFFENSE
The offense is solid and deep, and will once again be the club’s strength. New York finished third in the NL with 834 runs last year, bopping an even 200 homers and topping the Senior Circuit with 146 base swipes. I expect the Mets to up their totals in all three columns this season.

Jose Reyes is at short and also at the top of the order where he wreaks havoc. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit better than the .300 he batted in 2006 and reach 20-70 levels in homers and steals. His doubleplay partner at second is Jose Valentin who is coming off a better-than-expected season. Part of his success is owed to the lineup around him, no doubt. And at 37, a small decline from ’06 could be in order, but the Mets brought in Damion Easley to spell Valentin and hit against some lefties.

On the infield corners are David Wright at third and Carlos Delgado at first. Wright seems poised for an MVP season or two, or three or four, in his future. Delgado’s batting average has bounced around from season to season, but his power numbers are fairly constant.

The ageless wonder Julio Franco is back to back up first and provide some offense off the bench. It looks like David Newhan, signed from the Orioles in January, will be the reserve at third and maybe also see time all over the infield and outfield. In addition, New York has Anderson Hernandez in camp this spring. Hernandez will likely start the year at Triple-A, but could provide some long term relief if needed at second or short.

Catching is Paul Lo Duca after the 9-year vet tied a career high with 163 hits, nearly tied his career high in the average column with a .318 mark and set a new career mark with 80 runs scored. His backup will be Ramon Castro, and the Mets will have Mike DiFelice down at Triple-A if he is needed.

The outfield appears set with Carlos Beltran in center, Moises Alou in left and Shawn Green in right. At least that’s the first string. Beltran led New York with 41 taters and 127 runs scored, tying Wright with 116 RBI to give the Mets a trio of 100-RBI sticks (Delgado the other at 114). Alou is not the move I’d have made if I was GM Omar Minaya, mostly because I simply don’t like El Pollo. But another reason has to do with Alou only seeing action in 221 games the past two seasons combined, and his nagging injuries have been as constant during his career as his solid stick.

Expect Endy Chavez and Lastings Milledge to both see a lot of time in the outfield corners spelling Alou and Green. New York also has a decision to make with Ben Johnson who they picked up from San Diego in the offseason. Johnson will probably begin in the minors and await a call if there is an injury.

PITCHING
Psst! Hey buddy, want a stock tip? Buy a few shares of SmithKline-Beecham or Pfizer, the two outfits that make Tums and Rolaids. Why? Because Mets manager Willie Randolph is likely to endure a very steady diet of one or the other antacid for at least the first half of the season. Sell off a little before the All-Star Game when New York should have a few pitchers back from either rehab or the doghouse.

Randolph appears pretty set with the first four slots in his rotation as left-handers Tom Glavine and Oliver Perez are joined by righties John Maine and Orlando Hernandez. Three of those arms should be fine - - Glavine, Maine and Oliver - - and I really like both Maine and Oliver this year with both having strong springs along with Glavine.

El Duque, listed as being 41 but likely a calendar or two beyond that, is a concern. Hernandez didn’t do too badly once he got to Queens last summer, going 9-7 in his 20 starts with a 4.09 ERA. But aside from his first couple of seasons in the Bronx back in our previous millennium, he’s struggled overall, either with injuries or less-than-impressive stuff. And as thin as the rotation is entering the season, New York can ill-afford to see him go down with injury or ineffectiveness.

The Mets brought in Aaron Sele and Chan Ho Park to battle for the fifth position in the rotation, but both have been awful this spring. So the #5 job might go to 23-year-old Mike Pelfrey who just two springs ago was chunking for Wichita State before New York took him with the ninth overall pick in the 2005 draft.

If the Mets are lucky, they’ll have Pedro Martinez back sometime in the second half. Pete had shoulder surgery early last October and just started throwing in the last couple of weeks. While his return would definitely provide an emotional lift for the team, it’s never clear how effective a pitcher will be when they first take to the mound again following a rotator cuff knifing.

Like the rotation, the Mets’ bullpen is also a bit iffy right now. Billy Wagner will be the closer, and he’ll have Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano and Scott Schoeneweis pitching in front of him. Not a bad quartet, though it is lopsided with three southpaws and Heilman the only right-hander.

Getting right-hander Duaner Sanchez back sooner rather than later would certainly help, but word today is Sanchez is experiencing some discomfort in his right shoulder, the one he injured in a car accident last summer. Juan Padilla is also coming back from elbow surgery after missing all of 2006, and his elbow has been flaring up as well this spring.

And Guillermo Mota will sit the first 50 games this season after testing positive for one performance enhancing drug or another at the end of last season. Ambiorix Burgos, acquired from Kansas City for Brian Bannister (who might have provided some depth to the rotation) has been lit up like the White House Christmas tree this spring, but he claims he will make the team. Right-hander Joe Smith has enjoyed a lot of success this camp and could take that spot from Burgos.

Key Player(s): John Maine, Oliver Perez and the bullpen hold the keys for this club. The Mets should win 90 games if they just get just ho-hum seasons from their pitching staff. But if Maine and Perez pump up the rotation, New York will win 100 times and be a much greater force in the postseason.

Futures: Bodog has the Mets at 10:11 in their division, 7:2 in the NL and 8:1 to win the World Series, with the over-under break for wins set at 89½. Pinnacle lists New York and +885 to win it all, -120 in the NL East and +406 to win the Fall Classic. They also share Bodog’s sentiments with the 89½ wins total. And the Greek makes it 3-for-3 with 89½ for wins while posting the Mets at +705 to win their third World Series.

I love the over 89½ on the wins, with my sims suggesting New York will get past that number with room to spare. My projection sits at 93 wins at the moment.

[bigboydan]

I see the Mets have big time bullpen problems this year. Not to mention the fact that Beltrain can't hit for shit at home. I definitely like the under 89.5 games this year for this team.

[bigboydan]

Mets reliever Sanchez out again with broken pitching shoulder

NEW YORK -- Mets reliever Duaner Sanchez has a broken bone in his pitching shoulder and is expected to be sidelined until at least midseason.

Sanchez hasn't pitched for New York since July, when he separated the same shoulder in a taxi accident and had surgery. Before that injury, he was having a stellar 2006 season as the primary setup man for closer Billy Wagner.

The right-hander, disciplined in spring training this year for repeated tardiness, felt a pop in his right shoulder Thursday and cut short his first bullpen session in eight months after 11 pitches.

He said he didn't feel any major pain on the pitch, and he was examined by Dr. Dan Tomlinson, who said scar tissue had broken loose. The pitcher was treated with ice.

But Sanchez flew to New York last weekend for an MRI exam and was diagnosed with a hairline fracture of a small bone in the front of his right shoulder.

Surgery is recommended, the Mets said Monday, and the procedure involves securing the bone with a small screw.

Sanchez probably could resume his rehabilitation within six to eight weeks after surgery. Another six to eight weeks after that, he could begin throwing in a competitive situation.

Sanchez went 5-1 with a 2.60 ERA last season, helping the Mets build a big lead en route to their first NL East title since 1988.

After his taxi accident in Miami and the surgery that followed, Sanchez reported to camp overweight this year. He was sent home for two days by manager Willie Randolph after repeatedly showing up late for rehabilitation.

General manager Omar Minaya also said the club was concerned about changes in Sanchez's throwing motion after the surgery.

The Mets' strong bullpen was a big reason they advanced to Game 7 of the NL championship series last year before losing to St. Louis. The unit was expected to be a strength again this season, but it will certainly have a different look.

Chad Bradford signed with Baltimore, Darren Oliver joined the Los Angeles Angels and Roberto Hernandez left for Cleveland. Heath Bell and Royce Ring were traded to San Diego for reserve outfielder Ben Johnson and another reliever, Jon Adkins.

In addition, Guillermo Mota will miss the first 50 games while serving a steroids suspension. And hard-throwing right-hander Ambiorix Burgos, acquired from Kansas City in an offseason trade for Brian Bannister, has been a disappointment in spring training.

Three of the team's top relievers, however, are back: Wagner, setup man Aaron Heilman and lefty Pedro Feliciano, who was 7-2 with a 2.09 ERA last season.

New York also signed left-hander Scott Schoeneweis and right-hander Chan Ho Park, who was bumped to the bullpen last weekend after failing to win a spot in the rotation during spring training.