Minnesota returns the AL Cy Young, MVP and batting title winners in hopes of once againg proving the skeptics wrong as they go for their fifth division title in six seasons.
Cy Young winner? Check. American League MVP? Double check. Batting champion? Triple check.
What’s not to like about the Minnesota Twins? Granted, White Sox, Tigers, Indians and Royals fans don’t like the Twins about 18 times a year or so. But a lot of teams should still envy the Twins if only for the fact they find ways to win without needing the high-dollar payrolls other clubs resort to. Compare Minnesota’s approximate $64 million total last year to Houston’s $92.5 million and the Chicago White Sox’ $102.5 million, the previous league champs who failed to play on in October.
And we haven’t even mentioned the difference between the Twins and Yankees. New York spent roughly three times what Minnesota did in 2006, and had all of one extra victory to show for it.
Getting back to our checklist we find another reason to like what the Twins did in 2006 is how they rallied to snatch the AL Central crown after being left for dead 10 weeks or so into the season. At the end of play on June 10 last summer, Minnesota stood 27-34, a season-low seven games below .500 and 11½ out of first in the division. They would reel off 19 wins in their next 20 games and go 69-32 from June 10 on to just slip past Detroit for the division title on the season’s final day.
That’s what you call a gut check.
It might just take a gut check once again for this team to make the postseason. Despite four 90+ win seasons and four AL Central titles in five years under manager Ron Gardenhire, the Twins figure to face a tough time repeating in the division this year as the Tigers, White Sox and Indians also have rosters pointed towards October.
OFFENSE
When the two catchers who start all 162 of your games combine to bat better than .345, you know you have something special. Of course, most of that something special goes by the name of Joe Mauer who won the AL batting crown with a .347 mark, the first catcher to do so in the American League. The Twins locked Mauer up through 2010, with Redmond (.341) back as his relief this season.
Down at first, Justin Morneau returns, his 2006 AL MVP trophy in hand. The rest of the infield is also returning: Luis Castillo at second, Jason Bartlett at short and Nick Punto at third. Not a lot of punch from that trio, though they will swipe some bags along the way.
Infield backups will probably go to Luis Rodriguez and Jeff Cirillo, with Alexi Casilla and Alejandro Machado trying to turn heads this spring to win a reserve slot.
The outfield is pretty well set in center and right with Torii Hunter and Michael Cuddyer respectively. Cuddyer provided protection in the lineup behind Mauer a year ago with Hunter hitting behind Morneau in the order. That 3-4-5-6 quartet in the order will once again be counted on to deliver most of the long balls.
Rondell White is back and will patrol left when he’s not on the DL. Lew Ford will be lost to injury until late April at the earliest, meaning a pair of Jason’s, Kubel and Tyner, provide the initial outfield backup chores.
Kubel will probably share time at DH with Cirillo to open the season, though White and Matt LeCroy, who re-signed with Minnesota this winter after a year away from the fold, also figure in the DH mix.
PITCHING
Two of the pitchers who made last year’s run to the playoffs possible will not be back in 2007. Brad Radke and Francisco Liriano combined to go 24-12 in 44 starts and 12 relief appearances. Radke has retired while Liriano underwent Tommy John surgery last fall and will miss the entire season.
Johan Santana, however, will be back, and by himself he gives any team hope for any season. Santana was first or second in just about every meaningful pitching column a year ago, including Wins, ERA, Strikeouts, WHIP, K/BB, Innings Pitched, etc. With him in the rotation, it should mean the Twins avoid any prolonged losing streaks at the very least.
The three arms following Santana this year should be Ramon Ortiz, who was signed as a free agent in the offseason, Boof Bonser and Carlos Silva. Bonser and Ortiz have had very strong springs so far, but Silva has not.
If performance were the only criteria, Matt Garza would be the leading candidate at the moment to get the last starting assignment. But Sydney Ponson is in camp and, despite his rough go, is apparently in the lead for a starting job. Scott Baker, a big disappointment a year go, has also struggled but could be held on as a long reliever.
If Garza doesn’t make the starting cut, he’ll join left-hander Glen Perkins at the Triple-A level giving the Twins two solid young arms to call on when, not if, the need arises.
Despite having the reigning Cy Young, MVP and batting champ on the roster, the bullpen once again figures to be the strength of this club. And considering Minnesota will have Ponson and Silva in the rotation early on, having a strong bullpen is a very good thing.
Joe Nathan is the closer and coming off a phenomenal season: 36 saves, 1.58 ERA, 95 strikeouts and only 16 walks and three homers in just over 68 frames. Juan Rincon, Pat Neshek and Jesse Crain figure to be the right-handed arms for the seventh and eighth innings. Matt Guerrier is a middle inning arm from the right side.
Two lefties who figure into the works are Dennys Reyes and Mike Venafro. Last season, the combination of Nathan, Rincon, Reyes, Neshek and Crain worked 307 innings between them, surrendering just 80 earned runs (2.34 ERA) and allowing but 79 walks while striking out 322. If they get anything close to those numbers again this year, the Twins will once again have the best bullpen in the majors.
Key Player(s): Mauer and Morneau don’t have to repeat their numbers from 2006, and they probably won’t. But Cuddyer and Hunter do have to hit around the same stats to make up for some of the expected tailing off Mauer and Morneau suffer. And at least two pitchers - - likely two that are not named Ponson or Silva - - have to step up and supply some solid starting pitching behind Santana in the rotation.
Futures: Minnesota, if the win totals at the books are to be believed, appear destined for fourth in what is forecast to be a wild AL Central race this year. The Greek and Pinnacle set their breaks at 83½ victories with Bodog a hook higher at 84. The Twins are being set at about 3:1 to win the division and 12:1 to win the AL, odds that seem very low for a team that is basically picked fourth in the ALC. World Series numbers range from +1815 at The Greek to +2047 at Pinnacle to 25:1 at Bodog.
Minnesota ran one very bad sim (78 wins) and one very good one (92 wins). Throw those two out and their average was 85.
I don't see the Twins repeating this year at all Willie.
I think this years Twins team will get off to a slow start, and stay right there with the White Sox,Tigers, and Indians, and will be swallowed down the stretch.
I think Garza will have a big year, and emerge as a quality number 2 starter (until Liriano returns). I'm not sure I can say the same for the Twins, as I really like the Indians in this division, but you can't put anything past Gardenhire and the heart of the Twins team.
They're a great organization, and if I was a 10-year old kid, they'd be my favorite team.
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2007 MLB Preview: Twins look to defend ALC title
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