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2007 MLB Preview: Red Sox roll Dice in 2007
Red Sox roll Dice in 2007
Adding Daisuke 'Dice K' Matsuzaka this winter to an already formidable rotation makes the Red Sox a favorite to return to the postseason after a 1-year hiatus.
Last season started out pretty much like everyone suggested it would for Boston. After failing to defend their 2004 World Series the previous season, the Red Sox were picked to once again battle the rival Yankees in the AL East and get back to the postseason with a club that had been upgraded through trades and free agent signings.
Added to the fold before ’06 were pitcher Josh Becket and a new left side of the infield, shortstop Alex Gonzalez and third baseman Mike Lowell, all of whom toiled for the Marlins in 2005. And after losing center fielder Johnny Damon as a free agent to the Yankees - - Heaven forbid! - - the Sox acquired Coco Crisp from the Indians and added Wily Mo Peña from the Reds to deepen their outfield corps.
Boston was tied in the GB column with New York in the AL East at the end of April, and the media went overboard with hype about the two meeting to open May in Boston in a 2-game set. Weather shortened that already short series to just one game, taken by the Sox 7-3 thanks to a 4-run uprising in the bottom of the eighth and highlighted by a 3-run blast by David ‘Papi’ Ortiz. The win gave Boston the lead in the division, at least temporarily, and the makeup game would be added to a 4-game weekend series back in Beantown in August.
When the two clubs reached that big series starting with a twinbill on August 18, New York held to a tenuous 1½-game lead over Boston and the stage seemed set for a classic showdown between the longtime rivals. But what followed was anything but a classic if you’re a Red Sox fan. New York scored 26 runs in the Friday doubleheader to take both of those games, came back with 13 more in Saturday’s win, then completed the 5-game sweep on Sunday and Monday to stun Red Sox Nation and, for all intents and purposes, end Boston’s season.
Even though the Sox would take 3-of-4 in a double, doubleheader meeting in the Bronx about a month later, that five game debacle, in Fenway, no less, really did ‘em in. Boston would end up missing the postseason altogether, their 86-76 record relegating them to third in the division, 11 games behind New York.
The Red Sox have once again made several changes to the roster, adding a new middle-infield duo, bringing in a high-priced outfielder for more offense, beefing up the starting rotation and going with their third different closer in as many seasons. And once again, they’re picked to play second fiddle to the Yankees.
OFFENSE
Though it wasn’t the only reason, one of the causes for Boston taking a tumble towards the end of last season was the loss of catcher Jason Varitek who missed nearly six weeks with a knee injury. The Red Sox were a dismal 10-22 in that span, including the 5-game sweep at the hands of New York in August. Varitek is back as the club’s #1 catcher where he will see action 80% of the time, leaving backup Doug Mirabelli to handle the knuckleballer Tim Wakefield.
Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell are back on the infield corners, and they’ll have Eric Hinske backing them up. The middle of the infield sports a new tandem in shortstop Julio Lugo, signed as a free agent after Alex Gonzalez went the free agent route himself once again, and second baseman Dustin Pedroia. Lugo is a downgrade defensively over Gonzalez and Pedroia, a converted shortstop, is a big part of the Red Sox’ future after a brilliant career at Arizona State that made him a 2nd-round pick by Boston in 2004.
Alex Cora is listed as the primary backup for both Lugo and Pedroia. If Joe ‘Super Sub’ McEwing makes the team, he could see time in the dirt as well.
JD Drew was signed to a big deal in the offseason and will take over in right for the departed Trot Nixon. Drew’s talent has never been in question. He has managed to play 145+ games in two of the previous three seasons, and having him in the lineup that often this year is high on Boston’s wish list.
Crisp is back in center and Manny ‘Just Being Manny’ Ramirez is in left. Wily Mo Peña is the #4 outfielder, with Hinske also possibly seeing time in the outfield as well as at infield corners this season.
Papi will DH once again after a monster, 54-HR campaign. He’s averaged 47+ HR and 137 over 141 RBI the last three seasons and is one of the game’s best late inning hitters.
PITCHING
Everyone’s talking about the rotation in Boston this season and its potential for greatness. And it’s hard to argue, especially at this time of year when hope abounds for all clubs, with the group’s prowess, if only on paper.
Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett and Tim Wakefield return to comprise 60% of the starting rotation in Boston this season. Schilling and Wakefield are both 40, and Beckett, while off a career-best 16 wins, is also off a career-worst 5.01 ERA. The Red Sox were 20-11 in Schilling’s 31 starts last year, 18-15 in Beckett’s 33 and 11-12 in Wakefield’s 23. That 49-38 combined record (563) is a mark most clubs would love to have from their top three in the rotation. As it is, Schilling is the #1 with Beckett and Wakefield in the 3-4 holes.
The man in the #2 slot should be Daisuke Matsuzaka who created a lot of winter buzz after Boston won the rights to negotiate with the hurler from Japan. Nicknamed Dice-K and, Matsuzaka reportedly throws his vast array of pitches, including his mysterious gyro ball, at a wide array of speeds from the mid-70s to the low 90s. Adding him alone would make this rotation that much more formidable.
But Boston is also shifting their closer from last year, Jonathan Papelbon, into the rotation as well. The righty out of Mississippi State had a super rookie campaign with 35 saves, and ERA below 1.00 and just 13 walks against 75 whiffs in an out over 68 innings. He did have some shoulder issues last season, so Boston will likely keep a close eye on Papelbon this spring and throughout the season. I seriously doubt you’ll see him working more than 70-75 pitches early on, and he might not get much past 90 tosses in a single game the entire season.
Assuming the other four starters work deep into games, the bullpen will at least get some work on days Papelbon pitches. And with the relief corps being in a bit of disarray right now, it might be a good thing that they don’t get a lot of work. The competition for the closer’s job is very much up in the air with Joel Pineiro, Mike Timlin and Brendan Donnelly the likely top candidates right now.
Pineiro was signed in hopes of converting the former Mariners starter to a premier closer. The jury is still out on this idea, way far out, in fact. Donnelly was acquired from the Angels in a trade, and he has had some good success setting up for the Halos. Timlin is a grizzled vet of 16 seasons and been in the primary setup/occasional closer role for the Red Sox since landing with Boston to start the 2003 season. But his chances of getting the job now appear slimmer after experiencing a strained oblique muscle and currently having been shut down for about a week. Timlin will be part of the bullpen picture, no doubt.
Another guy who has been slowed by injury this spring is Craig Hansen, who has been anointed the team’s closer-of-the-future, but a bad back is limited his chances to break camp with the club in any role presently.
A long shot to win the job but someone who should still see a lot of action is left-hander Hideki Okajima, the Japanese import whose arrival with the Sox caused not a ripple through the media pond this winter. He’s been among the best setup arms in Japan for a good decade.
Julian Tavarez is a candidate for something, but we’re just not sure just what. He might figure into the team’s plans as a starter if that need arises, or he could be a middle-innings-slash-setup pitcher, or, who knows?, maybe he closes.
Key Player(s): The team should be stronger than most on offense. Hard not to be with Papi and Manny in the lineup. So like it is with every team, just keeping their regular position players healthy is a key. Boston does have decent depth with guys like Peña, Hinske and Cora, so they can afford short-term lineup changes. So defense - - specifically up the middle with Pedroia, Lugo and Crisp - - will be key. And certainly the bullpen and how it shakes out will be crucial.
Futures: Both Pinnacle and The Greek agree on Boston’s odds to win the World Series, +845. But the two differ on win totals with Pinnacle setting their break line at 90½ and The Greek at 91½. Bodog has their win total in the middle at 91. Pinnacle has the Sox +231 to win the AL East and +610 in the AL, with Bodog at 2:1 in the AL East, 7:2 to capture the AL flag and 6:1 to win it all.
This was a tough team to run through simulations because of the unknown commodities Boston has in Matsuzaka, Okajima, Pedroia, the bullpen order and even how Papelbon will fare changing roles. Despite that, the Red Sox came through fairly consistently in the 84-91 win range. Even factoring in one of the five starters having a bad year and average bullpen results, I like the upper 80s no problem and will set my projections at 90 wins.
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Originally Posted by Razz
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