Stacked in their rotation and with offensive threats Ryan Howard and Chase Utley in the meat of the batting order, Philadelphia should find the postseason this year.
A little trivia to start this one off: Eight teams enter this season having won 80 or more games in each of the past six seasons (beginning in 2001). How many can you name?
Now, of those eight, what’s the only one that hasn’t made the playoffs at least once in that span?
Too easy, huh? Especially since this is the preview of the Phillies. But they are the only one of the octet who hasn’t made the playoffs once in the last six seasons despite hitting the 80+ win mark each time. Philadelphia missed the wildcard last year by three games when their 85-77 mark fell short. They were just a game out of the postseason in 2005, finishing that much behind Houston who, oh, by the way, swept the Phillies six straight in the ’05 campaign. They’ve won 86 games three times in the 6-year span and 88 games once.
In other words, they’re the best team not to make the postseason since they bottomed out at 65-97 in 2000, the last season they played with Terry Francona at the helm.
Well, that may all be about to change this season. With possibly the game’s best right-side of an infield in Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, decent defense, a very nice starting staff on the mound and an experienced reliever in Tom Gordon, the Phils appear poised to break that string and keep playing into October.
By the way, the other seven teams to win at least 80 games the last six years are the Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics and St. Louis Cardinals. That group has three World Series titles and six league pennants to their credit while the Phils haven’t evened sniff the postseason.
OFFENSE
Howard and Utley are coming off fabulous seasons in which they combined for 90 homers, 251 RBI and 235 runs. So to suggest the Phillies’ offense starts with those two would be an understatement. But to suggest the offense starts and ends with the pair, well, that is one reason the team hasn’t been able to get to October, at least the last couple of years.
I admit it; I was one of those who didn’t think Howard would necessarily build on his 2005 numbers when he slapped 22 homers in 88 games for Philadelphia. The Phils had babied the big first sacker a bit, not letting him face lefties and keeping him on the bench against even some tough right-handers. I thought, yeah, let him play 140+ games and he will hit 30, maybe 35 flies. But I also expected his average to suffer and bit. I couldn’t have been more wrong.
Howard exploded for a major league best 58 taters and lifted his average 25 points to .313. Meanwhile, Utley was building on his fine 2005 showing and moving himself atop the list of the best second basemen in the game.
Jimmy Rollins is back at short and, presumably, leading off the batting order. Rollins set a new personal best last year with an .811 OPS, though ideally you’d like to see him up his on-base mark even more than that in the leadoff spot.
At third base this year will be Wes Helms who was inked to a free agent deal in the winter. He’s a threat for 20 homers playing full time, but he’s also a threat for a bunch of errors. Look for Abraham Nuñez to spell Helms late in the game, plus provide some backup for Rollins and Utley who don’t figure to get many days off. If there’s one thing the Phils are short on, it’s backup on the dirt. So if one of the starters misses significant time, it could very well spell trouble.
Rod Barajas was signed away from the Rangers to assume catching chores. Barajas has a decent mitt, but Carlos Ruiz’ stick could eventually win out on the platoon.
The outfield trio should be Pat Burrell in left, Aaron Rowand in center and Shane Victorino in right. Burrell will have his normal 30-HR, near-100 RBI, 140-K season and bat around .260. If he could lop 30 strikeouts off the total and up his average to .275, it could be the difference maker for the club.
Victorino is finally going to have his first everyday job in the majors, and if he bats second behind Rollins and in front of Utley, he could be in for a solid season with 25+ steals a possibility. Rowand might hold the key to the outfield trio and the offense. Injuries cost him any chance of getting into a groove last year.
Jayson Werth is the fourth outfielder, so like the infield, there’s not a lot of depth here. Karim Garcia is also in camp and could stick as the fifth outfielder.
PITCHING
Philadelphia has a problem that a lot of teams would love to have: Too much starting pitching. Ok, so a team can never really have that problem since nobody ever has enough pitching, starting or otherwise.
But the Phillies do have extra depth for their rotation and all signs are they will deal veteran Jon Lieber at some point this spring. Once that happens, the starting five will be Brett Myers, Freddy Garcia, Jamie Moyer, Adam Eaton and Cole Hamels. If for some reason they don’t find a taker for Lieber’s right arm, it’s likely that Eaton would move to the pen.
Myers should be the Opening Day starter, and the right-hander has reported to camp in excellent shape. Garcia comes over to Philly from the White Sox in a deal that sent Gavin Floyd and the old player to be named later to Chicago. He’s probably a 1-year rental since his contract is up at the end of the season, and he will pitch in the 2-slot.
Moyer, the 44-year-old left-hander, got a 2-year deal in the offseason after coming from Seattle in a trade last August. He’s thrown 200+ innings each of the past six seasons. Eaton will pitch #4, unless he’s moved to the pen. And Hamels, the young lefty, could be the best fifth starter in the National League, or the majors for that matter.
The bullpen might lack big names, but it’s still a nice group five deep. Tom Gordon is back as the closer after converting 34 saves last season with a 3.34 ERA. His primary setup help will come from fell right-handers Geoff Geary and Ryan Madson. Geary has a very good season a year ago and it’s hoped that keeping Madson in the pen instead of bouncing him back and forth between relief and starting roles will help him find some consistency.
The southpaw arms out of the pen will be Dominican-born Fabio Castro and Sin City native Matt Smith, who toiled at Oklahoma State before being a 4th-round pick by the Yankees in 2000. Smith came to the Phils as part of the deal that sent Corey Lidle and Bobby Abreu to New York last summer. Though they’re both left-handed, that’s where the similarities end with these two. Castro could eventually become a starter, despite his 5-7, 160-pound frame. Smith is a big ol’ corn fed boy at 6-5, 225+.
Key Player(s): With not a lot of help in reserve, just keeping their primary eight position players healthy all season will be a huge factor in Philly’s chances this year. Some of that lack of depth could be addressed in a Jon Lieber trade, so Lieber might be a crucial part of the Phillies without even being a part of the Phillies.
Futures: Pinnacle has set their win total break at 88½ with the Phillies at +1786 to win the World Series, +766 to win the NL and +298 to win the NL East. Bodog has the Phils at 6:5 in their division, 5:1 to take home the National League Pennant and 11:1 to win it all, with 89 the break point on their win total charts. The Greek has 88½ for wins and lists the Phils at +1615 to win the World Series.
My projection are on the under side of those books right now, with 87 my average mark.
I have this odd feeling on Victorino. Call me crazy. I think he is gonna be a big name this year at the end. I drafted him last in every fantasy league I have hoping I am right.
The ESPN experts are pretty much saying the same thing picantel. Personally, I don't see him giving the Phillies that big jolt of offensive production they need at the top of the lineup.
I know this team well, and they absollutely need to get off to a quick start.
Worries for me are 3rd base, middle relief, and although Rollins had a great second half last year - he is streaky and hits the ball in the air too ofter. He needs to be a ground ball, line drive hitter and he thinks he is a power hitter. I think they will need everything to go their way to make the postseason.
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2007 MLB Preview: Phillies good bet for postseason
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