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2007 MLB Preview: Astros still good, but not good enough
Astros still good, but not good enough
After winning their first NL Flag in 2005, the Houston Astros stumbled through 2006 and missed the playoffs. Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman have a big load to shoulder this time.
It was a very disappointing season for the boys in brick-&-sand last year. A season removed from the franchise’s first NL Pennant and trip to the World Series, the Astros languished in the ranks most of the season before a late surge, accompanied by a late slump by the Cardinals, provided a little excitement for Houston fans.
Being one of those fans, the only solace I can take in the Astros’ 2006 season is that I took them on the under side of the 83½-win total posted before the season started, and the Houston Nine came through with a middling 82-80 mark.
The Astros got off to a great start in defense of their NL crown, sitting 16-8 through April and just a half-game behind NL Central co-leaders St. Louis and Cincinnati. They won every series during the season’s first month except for a rain-shortened set in San Francisco that went the way of a 1-1 split. After they swept a short, 2-game series at home against the Cardinals on May 4, Houston was 19-9.
And that’s when it all started to unravel. Perhaps their hot start relaxed the team too much. Every indication was that future Hall-of-Famer Roger Clemens would be rejoining the club soon, and if they were doing this well without him, then surely they’d be kicking tail all over the NL with him in the rotation.
There were already some signs that, despite the 19-9 record, the club had problems. Closer Brad Lidge, nicknamed Lights Out, had 11 saves at the time, but his ERA was approaching 6.00. Morgan Ensberg had gotten off to a very hot start on the heels of a strong 2005 season. But after an 0-for-3 game the next night on May 5, he would never see .300 under the batting average column again in 2006.
Likewise, veteran Craig Biggio’s numbers would tail off dramatically after May 4 as would Preston Wilson’s RBI. Though the club would still be in it up until the final game of the season in Atlanta, their season effectively ended beginning on May 5 when they traveled to Colorado and were swept by the Rockies in a 3-game set.
OFFENSE
Houston’s offense was known to be the weak link entering 2006. Jeff Bagwell would never see a pitch in 2006 and would officially announce his retirement after the end of the season. Losing his bat in the order and his presence in the clubhouse was huge. Still, the club managed to score more runs in 2006 than they did in 2005. The only trouble is the 693 runs they plated in 2005 were 11th in the NL while the 735 they scored in 2006 ranked a notch lower.
The infield, for all intents and purposes, remains the same this year. Berkman will be at first with Biggio at second, Ensberg at third and Adam Everett at short. Berkman’s coming off career highs in homers (45) and RBI (136), numbers more astounding when you consider clubs were often pitching around the switch-hitter.
Biggio will be going for his 3,000th hit this season, opening the year just 70 short of the milestone in what has been a super 19-year career so far. Everett was never in the lineup for his bat, but two straight seasons of .290 on-base averages would indicate that his glove, as strong as it is, can’t make up for his lack of offense.
Ensberg holds the key here, just as he did entering 2006. Though his on-base number rose a bit in 2006, his average slumped about 50 points, his slugging percentage fell nearly 100 and his RBI dropped about 30% (calculating for the same plate appearances).
Mark Loretta was signed in the offseason and will back Biggio up at second while also supplying a little insurance for Ensberg at third. Mike Lamb will also see time at the infield corners, and Eric Bruntlett will fill in all over the map.
Brad Ausmus, after winning his third Gold Glove, is in the same boat at catcher as Everett is at short. Is his defense really that good to make up for his lack of offense?
The outfield trio for Houston this Opening Day will be completely different than last. Carlos Lee will be in left, and unlike Everett and Ausmus, El Caballo was signed for his stick and not his glove. If his stick doesn’t come through, the Astros will have made a very, very expensive mistake.
Chris Burke, long listed as Biggio’s heir apparent at second, will be shifted full time to center field after the club dealt speedy Willy Taveras during the winter. And Luke Scott, off a strong 65-game run at the end of the season, will be in right. While the trio might be fine, even better than average as a group offensively, their defense coming into the season is suspect at best.
Orlando Palmeiro and Jason Lane figure to be the backups in the outfield, at least for now. Richard Hidalgo is also in camp trying to make a comeback in both the majors and in Houston. Hunter Pence is the future star in the outfield, but he’ll begin the year at Triple-A.
PITCHING
Andy Pettitte has returned to New York, Clemens is once again pondering his future and Brandon Backe will miss most if not all of the season rehabbing his elbow. Backe only made eight starts last year and Clemens didn’t make his first start until late June, so it’s really like the club is missing two starters instead of three.
But it was a staff that already saw its runs allowed total increase by 110 from 2005 to 2006, and losing any pitchers for a club that has relied so heavily on its arms is cause for concern.
The good news is Roy Oswalt, one of the best in the biz the last six seasons, will return and play the role of staff ace. And the club did sign free agent Woody Williams and traded for Jason Jennings. So 3-deep, the rotation should be better than many.
But who fills out the rotation is a big question mark right now. Wandy Rodriguez looks to be the fourth man in the order, and that’s only because he comes from the port side. Veteran Brian Moehler was invited to camp, but it’s doubtful he’ll be able to beat out the other three right-handers vying for a job - - Chris Sampson, Matt Albers and Fernando Nieve.
The bullpen is virtually the same except for veteran Russ Springer moving on. Lidge will be the closer unless he pitches like he did a year ago. Dan Wheeler is the primary setup arm to start the year and the best bet to move into the closer’s role of Lidge falters once again. Chad Qualls and Trever Miller, the left-hander, will also see a lot of seventh and eighth inning work, with Dave Borkowski in long or middle relief.
Rick White could also figure into the relief plans, as could any of the arms who don’t figure into the starting mix.
Key Player(s): The question marks at the back end of the rotation are crucial. But if Williams and/or Jennings muck it up, nobody will ever care who the fourth and fifth starters are. Burke in center will also be a focus. But for my money, the two keys are Ensberg and Lidge.
Futures: The Greek, Bodog and Pinnacle are all in agreement on the break mark for Astros wins, 78½. And both Bodog and Pinnacle are close in other futures odds, roughly 7:1 to win the NL Central, around 20:1 to win the NL and 45:1 for Houston to win their first World Series.
My projections come out on average at 77 wins, with 74 for a low and 84 for a high. However, to reach that high tide mark, the club will need for one of the unknown starters to come through with a 10-win season, or Houston will have to re-sign Clemens.
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Originally Posted by Willie Bee
