[Willie Bee]

Reds relievers key to their '07 success

With a less than imposing bullpen on paper entering the 2007 season, the Cincinnati Reds could be taking a step back in the NL Central.

Though it’s forgotten by now, the Reds were the early surprise team in 2006. At the end of April, Cincinnati was tied atop the NL Central with the Cardinals at 17-8, a game better than the Detroit Tigers who would wind up the biggest surprise in all of baseball a year ago.

In fact, the Reds and Cardinals were still tied for first in the division as late as Aug 24 despite both playing under .500 from May 1 forward. But Cincinnati promptly lost nine of their next 10 games to pretty much blow their chances in a division that St. Louis would claim with but 83 victories. As it was, the Reds would go 80-82 to record their sixth consecutive losing season.

At first glance it’s difficult to pinpoint one specific facet of the game as being the Reds’ downfall in 2006. In fact, their run differential - - 749 scored and 801 allowed - - suggests the team shouldn’t have been within a game of reaching the .500 level if you follow the Pythagorean theory as it pertains to baseball. So credit probably needs to be given to manager Jerry Narron for getting every little bit, and then some, out of the talent he had.

In the end it was a team effort that left them in third in the division, just like it will take a team effort to get them over the hump and into contention for the postseason this time.

OFFENSE
Cincinnati finished second in the National League with 217 homers, second with 614 walks and third with 124 steals. That combination - - power, patience and speed - - generally translates into a lot of plate crossings. But it didn’t for the Reds in 2006.

Their 749 runs ranked ninth in the NL, and two reasons all of the speed, patience and power didn’t help were the fifth-most strikeouts in the league and a .257 batting average that ranked next-to-last.

Virtually the same group that recorded those numbers is back this year, the only major change being Alex Gonzalez at shortstop. Signed in the offseason after spending 2006 in Boston, Gonzalez won’t be a huge upgrade on offense over Felipe Lopez and Royce Clayton from a year ago. In fact, Gonzalez is a downgrade on offense from Lopez. But he’s a huge lift on defense.

His double play partner at second is Brandon Phillips who is fine on both offense and defense. Phillips banged 17 homers, drove in 75 and stole 25 bases out of 27 tries in his first major duty since he was with the Indians in 2003.

On the infield corners are Scott Hatteberg at first and Edwin Encarnacion at third. Hatteberg will have Jeff Conine backing him up at first, and the two will likely become a lefty-righty platoon, with Conine also likely to see time in the outfield. First base will eventually belong to young Joey Votto.

Defense is not Encarnacion’s strong suit at third base, at least not yet. Still just 24, he has time to improve and the club would like to see some of that improvement this year. Infield backups will be Mark Bellhorn and Juan Castro, in addition to Conine at first and the versatile Ryan Freel.

Speaking of Freel, he’s listed #1 on the depth chart in right field this year. To his right in center is Ken Griffey who has Adam Dunn to his right in left. There has been some talk about shifting Griffey to right field in hopes of saving on the wear and tear of his oft-injured body out in center. But since he broke his hand in the offseason, there hasn’t been any chance to work on that possible move just yet. Outfield backups will be fought over this spring between the likes of Bubba Crosby, DeWayne Wise, Chris Denorfia and Norris Hopper. And on the outside looking in is Josh Hamilton who was taken in the Rule V draft from Tampa.

David Ross should be the #1 catcher this year after pounding 21 bombs a year ago, thought he barely batted .200 in the second half. Javier Valentin and Chad Moeller will vie for the backup role.

PITCHING
Bronson Arroyo came over from the Red Sox with at least a modicum of notoriety from his time spent with Boston, especially in 2004 when the Red Sox won it all. The free spirit with the wavy locks was acquired from the Beantowners just before the start of the ’06 season for Wily Mo Peña as Cincy had a wealth of outfielders and needed some starting depth.

Arroyo gave the Reds more than just a little starting depth. He was one of the reasons the Reds were so successful in the early going and stayed in contention into the latter stages of the season. The lean right-hander still had his ERA below 3.00 until a bad start late in July at Houston, and finished 14-10 with a respectable 3.29 ERA, good enough for fourth in the NL.

As good as Arroyo was, he still wasn’t the best pitcher on the Reds’ staff a year ago. Meet Aaron Harang, one of the most underrated pitchers in the game. Harang, a hulk of a figure on the mound at 6-7 and 250+, led the NL with 216 strikeouts and six complete games, and tied for the league lead with 16 wins and 35 starts.

The rest of the Cincinnati rotation figures to be a fight, quite possibly for MLB survival for some. Two veterans, lefty Eric Milton and right-hander Paul Wilson, are both coming back from injuries and surgeries. Milton is reportedly ready to go after some arthroscopic surgery on his left elbow this winter. Wilson is trying to come back from major shoulder surgery and hasn’t pitched since a few outings in 2005. He’s a longshot at best.

Kyle Lohse is a likely candidate at the end of the rotation. Others include Kirk Saarloos, Matt Belisle, Homer Bailey, Elizardo Ramirez and Bobby Livingston. Bailey and Livingston are most likely ticketed for Triple-A to open the season.

When spring camp opened a couple of weeks ago, Narron said he expected a couple of veterans, right-hander David Weathers and southpaw Mike Stanton, to share the closing duties, at least to star the year. If the two can tally saves together that total half their combined age on Opening Day (77), I’ll be amazed.

Todd Coffey is the primary setup arm for now, and Gary Majewski also figures into relief plans. Dustin Hermanson is in camp on a minor league deal, and Eddie Guardado might also see some time in the second half of the season after he recovers from last year’s Tommy John surgery. How bad are things in the Reds’ bullpen. Kerry Ligtenberg is in camp, that’s how bad.

Key Player(s): Having Griffey stay healthy for a full season would help. Seeing Dunn cut his strikeouts down to 160, or just once per game, would also be a good thing. A full season from Eric Milton on the mound would also supply an enormous lift to the rotation. But it’s the ragtag bullpen that raises my eyebrows the most.

Futures: The over-under break for the Reds’ win total in 2006 ranges from 76½ at Pinnacle to 77 at Bodog to 77½ at The Greek. Pinnacle has Cincinnati at +826 to win the NL Central, +3807 in the NL and +8231 to go all the way. Bodog follows that with 8:1 on the Reds in their division, but then list them at 20:1 in the National League and 45:1 to win the World Series. The Greek lists Cincy at +2050 to win the NL and +3550 to win the Fall Classic.

My projections say fourth, at best in the NL Central, with 76 wins for my prediction.

[bigboydan]

I'm breaking down this 2007 Reds team as I'm writing this. They have one very strange schedule year in regards to one of there west coast road trips.


I think you pretty much nailed it in regards to the bullpen though Willie. I question there ability to keep up a stable pace throughout the entire year.

[Willie Bee]

The schedule has been screwed up for a while now. Don't get me started on that issue. I've written Bud Selig and told him that for $10,000, a good laptop and four tickets to a World Series game, I could get a fifth grader who was a B-student to devise a more equitable schedule for the majors than what they're using now. Selig has never responded

By the way, I'd give the money (in a scholarship fund) and the laptop to the kid; the tickets would be mine

The schedule is one thing I look very hard at after I run the simulations that don't take into account 'travel hardships.' I assume you're talking about that point in June when the Reds are on the Left Coast against the Mariners and A's, then have to travel all the way across the Lower 48 to Philly for a series.

[bigboydan]

Willie, at least you can see the flaw with there schedule like I did.

The emotion factor is something none of us can control at all. However, the trick is to adjust the value factors accordingly in regards to losing streaks in to your capping when it comes to those types of road trips.

[bigboydan]

There talking about hitting Adam Dunn in the #2 hole this year. I think that could be a good more for Narring to make, because of the pop they have behind him.

[bigboydan]

Dustin Hermanson comeback looking good

SARASOTA, Fla. (AP) -It's one of the feel-good stories of the Cincinnati Reds camp: Dustin Hermanson is back from a career-threatening injury, trying to win a job with the team he rooted for as a boy.

One problem: It's not true. The rooting part, that is.

Hermanson grew up in Springfield, Ohio, about an hour's drive from old Riverfront Stadium, and frequently attended games as a youth. He never rooted for a particular player - or team, as it turns out.

"Honestly, I couldn't say Cincinnati was my favorite team," Hermanson said Friday, after a workout. "I didn't have a favorite team. I just liked watching baseball."

That all changed when he got to the majors and started pitching against the Reds. His feelings became much more pronounced, though not in the way some might think.

"I hated these guys," he said. "I hate everybody I play against. I hate my best friends when I pitch against them. Honestly, I couldn't stand anybody in a Cincinnati Reds uniform when I was pitching against them. Now, I love everybody that wears one."

There are good reasons to share the love. The Reds are one of the few teams willing to give him a chance to extend his career. And, if it works out, the Reds might be the biggest beneficiaries of all.

Cincinnati could use a closer. Few were better than Hermanson before he got hurt.

The 34-year-old pitcher saved 34 games and had a 2.04 ERA in 2005, helping the Chicago White Sox get to the playoffs and win the World Series. As the season went along, his back began to hurt.

It got worse every time he pitched, but he kept playing because so much was at stake every day. He nearly pitched himself right out of a career.

"We were playing for a World Series," he said. "There was no way I was not going to pitch. That was something that was very tough. I'd throw one day and be sore for the next two. I had a 16-pound girl I couldn't even get out of the crib in the morning, and at night I was pitching against major league hitters."

Doctors examined the back and found an unsettling problem. He had two cracks in a vertebra and instability in the area. It's an injury that has ended careers, and doctors warned him that his might be over as well.

"A couple of times I had people tell me I could have given up," Hermanson said. "It looked like it was turning into a dead end, and I didn't quit."

He went through months of painful and frustrating rehabilitation to build strength in the back muscles and get the problem under control. He missed most of last season, making six appearances in September.

Hermanson knew the White Sox wouldn't pick up his contract option for $3.65 million - who would, given the uncertainty over his back? So, he headed home to Scottsdale, Ariz., and waited to see how many teams would be interested.

Not many. Hardly any, in fact.

Concerned about the severity of his injury, teams weren't willing to risk it. Hermanson realized he'd have to prove himself, so he invited teams to watch him throw off a high school mound near his home.

There weren't many takers.

"Pretty much everybody was skeptical of my back," he said. "I said, 'Come on down and watch me throw.' I held open workouts to prove to everybody that I was healthy. It still was hard finding people to sign me because of the (medical) reports. Cincinnati gave me a chance."

The Reds needed a closer and decided to see whether Hermanson could still pitch. He agreed to a minor league deal on March 1 that will pay him $500,000 if he makes the major league roster.

So far, it's working out.

Hermanson gave up a home run on Thursday, the first run he has allowed all spring. He's throwing pain-free and pitching well enough to get into the mix for the closer's role. The last week of spring training will help manager Jerry Narron decide how to go.

"I have that in the back of my mind, that there's a possibility if I make this team that I could close," Hermanson said. "I'm just trying to make the team. If I'm pitching good, I'll probably find myself there. But I have to pitch good in order to get that role."