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2007 MLB Preview: Marlins won't surprise in 2007
Marlins won't surprise in 2007
After bucking the odds and actually contending in 2006, the Florida Marlins won't be the unknown kids in 2007 as teams take them more seriously.
Pick a team, any team, from 2006 and take away the starting catcher, the entire infield, two-thirds of the outfield the #2 and #3 starters, the closer and the top setup man. Now tell you how you would expect that team to do in 2007.
That is essentially what the Florida Marlins did between 2005 and 2006. Erased from the ’05 roster were catcher Paul Lo Duca, infielders Carlos Delgado, Luis Castillo, Alex Gonzalez and Mike Lowell, outfielders Juan Pierre and Juan Encarnacion, starting pitchers AJ Burnett and Josh Beckett, and relievers Todd Jones and Guillermo Mota.
Despite that, there was still reason for optimism last year in Miami. The Fish were going to bring a bunch of talented youngsters in and season them, let them learn by the trials and tribulations that are a long, long baseball season. In addition the Marlins hired Joe Girardi, a passionate, no-nonsense manager to get his feet wet as a dugout commander and help bring the youth along.
They weren’t supposed to have a chance at all of contending for a playoff spot, and early in the season they did nothing to disprove those expectations. Florida hit May with a 6-16 record and went into June 17-34 in the win-loss columns, 14½ games out of first and with last in the NL East seemingly sewed up.
But then a funny thing happened and the team started to win. Maybe someone forgot to tell the kids they had no business winning. Or perhaps Girardi told them they had no business losing. The youngsters came through in June with an 18-7 record, a record even more amazing when you consider the Padres, Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox were part of that June schedule.
By the time September rolled around, Florida was skipping about the .500 mark and suddenly in the hunt for the NL wildcard. They didn’t make it, obviously, but did close the season strong, going 61-50 the final four months of the season. Girardi was deservingly named the NL’s top manager for the season, recognition that would have most front offices talking to the field boss about a contract extension.
So what did the big fish, Jeffrey Loria, do? Naturally, he fired Girardi.
OFFENSE
Yummy, this crow sure tastes mighty fine. Can I offer you a plate?
I’m eating crow because of my prediction last year that they were a good bet for 100 losses, and no more than the mid-60s in wins. They blew that forecast out of the water.
One of the reasons they did was that Miguel Cabrera took his game to another level. He was the only regular position player held over from 2005, moved back to the infield to play third base, and despite being still wet behind the ears himself had to assume more of a leadership role in the clubhouse.
That Cabrera didn’t lead the team in home runs shocked me and many others. The long ball champ turned out to be 26-year-old rookie second sacker Dan Uggla who knocked 27 and made a totally unexpected trip to Pittsburgh mid-year for the All-Star Game. Uggla will be back at second this season with the same doubleplay partner at short, Hanley Ramirez, who also turned in a better-than-expected ’06 campaign, leading the Marlins with 119 runs and finishing third in the Senior Circuit with 51 steals.
The infield is completed with Mike Jacobs at first. Florida’s starting quartet on the infield will average less than 25-years-old on Opening Day, meaning a lot of other NL clubs are hoping Loria finds a way to screw things up and not keep them together for a long time.
Infield backups will go to Robert Andino in the middle and Aaron Boone on the corners after Boone was inked this winter. Alfredo Amezaga, listed as the club’s starting centerfielder at this time, could also see some time in the infield dirt.
Flanking Amezaga in center will be Josh Willingham in left and Jeremy Hermida in right. Willingham’s defense played him out of a catcher’s job and right into a starting outfield role, and the former Lion from North Alabama responded with 26 taters and 74 driven in. Hermida, expected to be the brightest of the rookies on the squad a year ago, had his ’06 season derailed by an ankle injury.
Cody Ross and Joe Borchard are the leading candidates for outfield reserve roles. Alex Sanchez, the fastest center fielder you’ve ever seen not catch a lot of fly balls, is also in camp.
The catching chores belong to Miguel Olivo and Matt Treanor. Olivo, who doesn’t have a lot of plate discipline but still poked 16 out of the park, will get the lion’s share of playing time behind the dish.
PITCHING
Dontrelle ‘Big Smile’ Willis is back as the staff ace. After suffering through a bad month of May, possibly due to trying to shoulder too much of the load mentally, Willis fashioned a 12-12 record with a 3.87 ERA.
As it turned out, Willis didn’t need to worry about trying to carry the staff himself, if that was indeed a problem for him. Josh Johnson turned in a fine 12-7, 3.10 campaign to finish fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting behind teammates Hanley Ramirez, who won the honor, and Uggla who ended in third. Two other members of the staff, right-hander Anibal Sanchez (10-3, 2.83) and lefty Scott Olsen (12-10, 4.04) finished in a three-way tie for ninth in the ROY voting. The third player they were tied with? Marlins teammate Josh Willingham, for those scoring at home.
Add in Ricky Nolasco, a right-hander who went 11-11 with a 4.82 ERA, and you have a 5-deep rotation with the oldest among them, Willis, being just 25.
Right now, Sergio Mitre is the best bet to fill in as a starter if and when that need arises. Also at the moment, there are some health concerns for Johnson (triceps) and Sanchez (shoulder). If both are going to miss time early, Yusmeiro Petit might also be an option at the end of the rotation.
The bullpen lost its closer, Joe Borowski who moved on to Cleveland, and will have lefty Taylor Tankersley trying to collect saves this season. The former first round pick out of Alabama will have Kevin Gregg as his primary setup for the moment, and Gregg could even factor into the closing role if Tankersley can’t get it done.
Henry Owens, Renyel Pinto and Matt Lindstrom also figure into the bullpen plans. But exactly how things wind up depends on what happens ahead of them in the rotation with Johnson and Sanchez.
Key Player(s): The health of starters Anibal Sanchez and Josh Johnson is a big concern right now, as is the report last yesterday that prospective closer Taylor Tankersley is nursing a cranky shoulder. But I don’t think anyone is more important to this team than new manager Fredi Gonzalez. His ability to cope with his job and make these youngsters forget all about last year when they surprised a few folks is going to be huge. Gonzalez will be under the microscope replacing last season’s top NL manager, plus he has to work for Loria.
Futures: You can find the Marlins 8:1 to win their division, 16:1 to win the NL and 38:1 to win their third World Series over at Bodog where the win total break is set at 78½. Pinnacle sets the Fish at +803 in the NL East, +1882 to win the NL flag and +4470 to win it all, with their break set at 78 wins. And The Greek has Florida wins set at 78½ with the Marlins at +2850 to win the World Series.
The best Florida did in my sims was 82 wins, and the worst they did was 76, one of the tightest spans of any team. I lean closer to 76 than I do 82 at this time due to the fact other teams will not take them as lightly as they did last season as well as the current injuries to the pitching staff.
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