1. #1
    Willie Bee
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    2007 MLB Preview: Offense no problem for Tribe

    Offense is no problem for Tribe

    Expected to contend in 2006, the Indians stumbled to fourth in the AL Central. Can their pitching help right the reservation this year?

    Very early in the 2006 season, the predictions looked spot on. Cleveland was off to a 6-1 start on the season and looking every bit like the team that was supposed to challenge the Chicago White Sox for the AL Central. After all, this was a team that improved by 12 wins from 2003-2004 and another 13 wins from 2004-2005.

    But it was not to be. By the end of April the team was just a game over .500, and they were an even .500 at the end of May before suffering through a 9-17 June followed by a 10-16 month of July. At season’s end, the Indians were 15 worse in the win column than they were in 2005.

    One of the topics we discussed in last year’s preview of the Tribe was that their big jump in 2005 might have been a bit premature. I even predicted them to slide back in the win column, though certainly not by 15 games.

    So, wha’ happened? On offense, the Indians actually improved their numbers in 2006, scoring 80 more runs (870 in 2006, 790 in 2005), hitting nine points better in average (.280 from .271) and increasing their OPS by nearly 20 points (.806 in ’06 from .787 in ’05). They hit a few less long balls, nine less to be exact from the 207 they popped in 2005, and they stole a few less bases, but neither of those drops was significant compared to their gains in runs, batting average and OPS.

    No, it wasn’t the offense, it was the pitching that cost them in 2006, specifically in the late innings when those fellows called relievers were summoned to the hump in the middle of the infield. Cleveland’s ERA rose 0.80 in 2006 after leading the AL with a 3.61 mark in 2005. Some of that was certainly the doing of the starters and the loss of Kevin Millwood who led the AL in 2005 with a 2.86 figure.

    But most of the trouble can be found in the bullpen. The top five relievers in 2005 fashioned a 2.88 ERA; the top five in 2006 coughed up a 4.66 number.

    OFFENSE
    Manager Eric Wedge has to like the offense he’s going to have at his disposal this season. What manager wouldn’t?

    The Yankees were the only team in baseball to score more runs than Cleveland last season, and this year’s Tribe could be even better. Positions that are written in stone include Travis Hafner at DH, Grady Sizemore in center, Victor Martinez behind the plate, Jhonny Peralta at short and Josh Barfield at second.

    The move to acquire Barfield from the Padres looks like a very good deal for the Indians though they did part with young power threat Kevin Kouzmanoff. Barfield is an upgrade offensively and defensively over Ronnie Belliard, who was dealt to the Cardinals last summer.

    Left field could be a platoon job for lefty-hitting David Dellucci and righty-swinging Jason Michaels. In fact, Wedge has hinted he will go with Michaels in left, Casey Blake in right and Ryan Garko at first against southpaws, with Dellucci in left, Blake at first and Trot Nixon in right against right-handers. Nixon was signed in the winter and his health is a question after totaling less than 900 at bats the past three seasons due to assorted medical reasons.

    Garko is a stud in waiting, but entering the season 26-years-old, it remains unclear how much longer the Indians will wait on him, and how much longer he will wait on the Indians.

    The one position that is a bit iffy right now is third base. Andy Marte is being penciled in at the hot corner now, and with the club dealing Kouzmanoff away, third base is Marte’s for the taking. Dealt from Atlanta to Boston in December 2005, and then dealt to the Indians in the swap that sent Coco Crisp to the Red Sox about six weeks later, Marte is still just 23 years old and very raw. If he can’t cut it, there’s a chance that Blake will move back to third, opening the door for Garko to man first.

    Infield backup jobs should go to Hector Luna and Luis Rivas.

    PITCHING
    Coming into Spring Training, Wedge shouldn’t have to make a lot of decisions regarding his rotation unless the injury bug bites. In fact, there really isn’t a battle brewing for any of the spots, and that’s rare for this time of year when teams generally have at least one of not two slots in the order undecided.

    Southpaw CC Sabathia will start Opening Day, and should be good to go after some minor knee surgery in the offseason. He managed to complete six of his 28 starts in 2006 with a sparking 3.22 ERA.

    Right-hander Jake Westbrook, off his second straight 15-win campaign should follow Sabathia with left-hander Cliff Lee third in the rotation. Lee fell off a tad in 2006, but his defense also didn’t help him out much.

    The defense also let Paul Byrd down to the tune of the opposition scoring 23 unearned runs against the right-hander in his 31 starts. Byrd will pitch fourth in the order this year, with young southpaw Jeremy Sowers bringing up the rear, in rotation order only. The former star out of Vanderbilt had a fine showing in his first 14 MLB starts a year ago, completing his season with a 3.57 ERA and 7-4 record after blistering the International League for a 9-1 record and 1.39 ERA in 15 starts there.

    Fausto Carmona, he of the disaster trial run as the team’s closer last summer, will begin the season as a starter in the minors and likely be the first arm called up if and when the need arises.

    While the bullpen might wind up as bad as it was last year, it will be a slightly revamped group that does the damage this year. Joe Borowski, after saving 36 for the Marlins in 2006, was signed in the winter to assume closing duties. Veteran Roberto Hernandez was brought in to be one of the primary setup arms and provide a little insurance at closer should Borowski stumble.

    Two other spots that are all but guaranteed belong to right-hander Rafael Betancourt and lefty Aaron Fultz. The best bets for the rest of the pen should be Fernando Cabrera, Jason Davis and Matt Miller, with Cabrera and Davis both out of options.

    Key Player(s): It’s a tough division now with the emergence of the Tigers last year, the White Sox still looking strong and the Twins very much a threat with the AL Cy Young winner, AL MVP and AL batting champ. So everyone will have to pull it together if the Indians are going to join the party. To begin the season, Borowski’s role as closer is probably the most critical since there’s nothing like a solid 9th-inning arm to help relax a club in the late innings and boost the confidence of a starting staff.

    Futures: Pinnacle set their win bar at 86 with the Indians +335 to win the division. The Greek likes Cleveland a little bit more with an 86½ line for the over-under win total and the Indians at +865 to win the AL Pennant. Bodog has the Tribe at 20:1 to win the World Series, 10:1 to take home the AL Flag and 3:1 to win the AL Central.

    My projections come out on the under side of the win totals I’ve seen, with 84 wins the average number from the simulations.

  2. #2
    bigboydan
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    This Tribe team has a world of talent, but there bullpen was so erratic last year after the Twins went on there monster run. I don't expect this team to fold like it did last year, and I do expect big things out of this team this year.

    I'm liking Cleveland to have 92 wins this year, and win the AL central.

  3. #3
    Willie Bee
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    Way to step out there with a bold prediction like that, Danny I ran 10 sims and the Tribe came out on top in the division one time with 91 wins, also finished second twice with 88 and 89 wins, so 92 dubyas are certainly within their reach.

  4. #4
    bigboydan
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    The Tribe definitely has the talent Willie. If they can get off to a good start, they should only gain confidence throughout the season.

  5. #5
    bigboydan
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    Wedge not worried about Grady

    VERO BEACH, Fla. -- Outstanding Spring Training stats and a quarter will buy you a phone call -- if you can even find a phone booth, nowadays. The numbers down here, positive or negative, don't add up to much.

    Nevertheless, one can't help but be incredulous to look down and see Grady Sizemore in a full-fledged funk at the plate.

    Sizemore went 1-for-4 in Sunday's game against the Dodgers to bring his spring average to .128 (6-for-47) with two homers, seven RBIs and eight strikeouts. The one hit Sunday is of note, though, as Sizemore legged out a triple, despite right fielder James Loney's impressive attempt to nab the fly ball with a diving catch.

    Sizemore's ghastly batting average is hardly what you expect from a guy some consider to be an MVP candidate. But any talk of that stat is greeted with the expected -- a half-hearted shrug.

    "He's fine," manager Eric Wedge said. "The last two or three games, he's swung real well but hit the ball right at people."

    For his part, Sizemore treats Spring Training as little more than a get-the-kinks-out exercise.

    "You just try to get your timing back down," said Sizemore, who, for the insatiably curious, hit .323 (21-for-65) last spring. "You're always working to make improvements. You're getting used to playing every day and getting your timing back."

    The topic of Sizemore led to a general discussion on what statistics Wedge pays attention to in the spring. Batting average, apparently, isn't one of them.

    "I look at at-bats and certain other things, but not average," he said. "We've got a feel for where guys are at. I look at games, innings and at-bats -- making sure guys are getting their work in."

    With 14 games under his belt, Sizemore, at the least, is doing that.

    Deal or no deal? Jake Westbrook went six innings Sunday, giving up a pair of runs on five hits with three walks and a strikeout.

    Westbrook's agent, Michael Maas, and the Indians have been in discussions about a contract extension, as the right-hander's current deal expires after this year. But all parties involved have been tight-lipped as to whether any progress has been made.

    "They're still talking," Westbrook said.

    General manager Mark Shapiro has said negotiations will only extend into the season if there is momentum toward a deal.

    Up close and personal: A complete time warp doesn't occur when one steps into Dodgertown. It just feels that way.

    The old-school Spring Training facility, which was built for the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1948, is a mecca for fans who long for baseball's simpler days. Holman Stadium is as unadorned as they come. The home and visiting dugouts, for example, are uncovered and sit just a couple of feet from the stands.

    It's a heckler's dream and a player's nightmare. But Wedge said the fans don't bother him here.

    "There's so much to hear that you don't hear anything," he said. "Because you can hear everything, you don't hear anything. How's that for a quote?"

    The fans seated down either base line aren't looking for quotes. They're seeking autographs, and access in the ballpark and around the facility, where players' and fans' paths often crisscross, couldn't be more open.

    "That's part of Spring Training," Wedge said. "There's a lot of access for fans. But this is a little bit extreme."

    Those hoping to check out the charm of Dodgertown better do so soon. The Dodgers will join the Indians in departing Florida for a new home in Arizona in 2009.

    Exploring all options: The Indians have talked lately about the possibility of keeping a fifth full-time outfielder to join Sizemore, David Dellucci, Jason Michaels and Trot Nixon. Casey Blake, currently slated to spell Nixon in right on days a left-handed pitcher is on the mound, would become more of a full-time infielder in that instance.

    Wedge vaguely explained the rationale behind carrying an extra outfielder but was quick to point out that's not necessarily the direction the club is leaning.

    "It would be a different way to go," Wedge said. "You talk about versatility and the potential for more speed. It's a different type of option."

    The Indians' remaining options for the job are Ben Francisco, Shin-Soo Choo and Franklin Gutierrez. But if Ryan Garko sticks with the club as a backup first baseman, all three are bound for Triple-A Buffalo.

    Running late: The Indians' bus, set to head to Vero Beach early Sunday morning, sat in idle about five to 10 minutes longer than anticipated. Francisco slept through his alarm and, after getting a wakeup call from the club, was speeding to the Chain of Lakes complex as if his life depended on it.

    Showing up late didn't cost Francisco any playing time Sunday, but he did have to endure quite a bit of good-natured ribbing from his teammates and coaches, all of whom were understanding.

    "We've all been there," Wedge said. "It's not a good feeling if you look at the clock and see you're late."

    This wasn't the first bus-to-Vero mishap in Indians' history. Former pitcher and current SportsTime Ohio analyst Brian Anderson once forgot to pack his glove and spikes for the two-hour trip -- on the day of a game he was starting, no less.

    The solution? Anderson went to a nearby Wal-Mart to replace the missing items.

    Miller fine: Reliever Matt Miller was held out of action Saturday because of cramping in his right elbow. But Wedge said Miller came into camp Sunday morning feeling fine, and he checked out fine with head athletic trainer Lonnie Soloff.

    On deck: It's starting to feel as though the Indians play the Devil Rays more times in Spring Training than they do in-season. The two clubs will face each other for the fifth and final time at 1:05 p.m. ET Monday at Chain of Lakes Park. Left-hander Jeremy Sowers will get one of his last spring tune-ups before embarking upon his sophomore season. He'll oppose right-hander James Shields.

  6. #6
    bigboydan
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    This one doesn't help the Tribe at all this year.

    WINTER HAVEN, Fla. (AP) -- Cleveland ace C.C. Sabathia's left forearm was bruised when he was struck by a line drive in his final spring training tuneup on Wednesday, putting in doubt his scheduled start in the Indians' opener next week at Chicago.

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