[BeatingBaseball]

you think riding Wacha, instead of hedging out tomorrow ??

Everyone’s personal situation is different, JR – bankroll, price at which you have the Series play, your current take on the Series and this 2^nd Wacha/Lackey matchup, etc. – but I can tell you what I’m doing. Since Wacha has been money for me and tonight is not a true and pure hedge opportunity anyway as I could lose a hedge bet on Boston here and still have no guarantee I cash the STL Series $ - I’m staying the course and hanging in for tonight. If wrong I’m fully prepared to live with the loss of all I’ll I have at risk tonight – but will hopefully get to re-assess my situation tomorrow.

[BeatingBaseball]

Game 6 – In my first write-up on the Series I stated that the key games determining the Cardinals’ chance to be World Champions would be #1 & #5 with Wainwright and #2 & #6 with Wacha – that the RedBirds needed two of those four to have a chance and getting three of them would win the Series.

The two greatest challenges to that formula were clear. In the Wainwright games, the big obstacle would be that both his shots would come against the Red Sox ace Jon Lester – #1 on the road then #5 home. In the Wacha games, it would be that both of his shots would come on the road at Fenway.

The RedBirds made it tough on themselves from the get-go by giving away #1 shortly after the national anthem. But Wacha kept the winning formula alive by coming up big and getting #2. In #5 – Wainwright was good – but Lester was great. So here we are at #6 – still a chance to get two of the four – thus still a chance for a chance.

This is Michael Wacha’s game in more ways than one – not only because he gets the ball – but also because the Cardinals would not even be in Boston playing this game if it wasn’t for this kid. It’s not the first time in the last few weeks he's been the only thing standing between the RedBirds and elimination - that was also the case when they gave him the ball in Pittsburgh for his first post season start. He got the job done then - and in between then and now all he did was beat the Dodgers and Kershaw twice then resuscitate the almost dead Birds with his W at Fenway in #2.

When Wacha took the mound in Pittsburgh – he had never won a post season game - it was in front of an amped-up, hostile crowd ready for the kill – and against an opponent that then had all the momentum in the series. He’s now won 4 post season games – but will be facing an even more intimidating environment. Beating the Red Sox a second time at Fenway is a daunting challenge. Winning there was tough enough during the regular season – Boston played .654 there - and it hasn’t been any easier post season – they’ve won 5 of 7 at Fenway in these playoffs. Not to mention that the chance to win a World Championship on their home field for the first time since 1918 should only magnify that already formidable home field edge. On top of that – the BoSox get their DH back tonight so Wacha will again be dealing to not only Ortiz but to Napoli as well.

So any good news at all for STL? Yes. Some.

The Cards can probably use the DH in the lineup more than Boston right now. The only guys that have done anything at all for them offensively in this Series have been Beltran, Holliday and Molina. In 5 games they have yet to get even a single RBI from lineup spots 6 through 9.

This will be the RedBirds 3^rd look at Lackey in the Series. They put across 3 runs on him in #2 and if they can even match that production tonight Wacha figures to give them a chance.

Ex Ortiz .733 BA in the Series - the rest of the Boston L/U is hitting .144. Ortiz will be an absolute pitch-around in this one.

Wacha’s BA allowed this post season is .127 overall – one of the very best in baseball playoff history for guys pitching 20+ playoff innings.

And of the 2 home losses Boston has this post season – Wacha already owns 50% of them.

The other good news for everyone is that if the Series does end tonight we will have listened to the moronic Tim McCarver for the last time. If it doesn’t end tonight, however, I won’t t all mind putting up with him for one more game. Wacha is the only reason I took STL in the Series to begin with - and I'm sticking with him tonight.
STL Series Play Total of 4 Units at +162.5
BOS Series Play of 1 Unit at +200
STL/Wacha First Five Game 6 at +106 for 2 Units
STL/Wacha Full Game 6 at +112 for 2 Units

[JR007]

kudos to the Red Sox Organization for turning it around and bringing in team players..live 40 miles to the west of Boston..... nothing short of remarkable after last years fiasco....

[ridersonthestorm]

Well done, Boston, owned Cards in last 2 games in SL and now killing them off.

Not bad for a team who lived deep in the basement last year.

[BeatingBaseball]

Boston proved to be the better club. For me - a disappointing finish but had a decent season overall - esp the stretch drive and playoffs. Last 3 W.S. games my first 3 game losing streak since August. Will now try to survive some football and baskets until April.