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Detroit - Boston #6
Will stick to everything I've said about the Red Sox and Tigers at the start of the series.
Boston is a better, more balanced, more consistent club - better defensively - better role players - better bench options - better bullpen - better on the basepaths. Top of the rotation pitching is of course big for Detroit (Scherzer, Verlander) - but it's not dispositive. We saw that with the Dodgers (Kershaw, Greinke). It's still a team game.
Including the split of games 1 & 2 of this series - Detroit is 4-12 L16 at Fenway. Boston took 2 of 3 from the Tigers there in Sept. - and this time they only need 1 of 2.
Cabrera is no where near 100% and Prince Fielder has been MIA at the plate in the series. It's of course a lot easier to pitch around Miggy when Fielder is not seeing it and swinging it. Avila is hurting as well for tonight - and he had two big hits vs Bucholz in game 2.
Defensively, as the series goes along - a lapse on any one single play can determine not only the game but the series - and the Tigers' defensive weakness at the infield corners has already exposed itself at times here - not to mention that if Leyland is going to pursue shortstop Peralta's conversion to the outfield - LF at Fenway in October is not the place/time to learn - another potential time bomb waiting to go off.
The Boston L/U has been a lot more patient at the plate than they were the first few games of the series They made nice adjustments in their approach to Anabel Sanchez the second time around and also showed better plate discipline vs Fister than they did in the first few games.
The pitching matchup for #6 is a rematch of #2 with Scherzer vs Bucholz. The Red Sox got that one - but only due to the breakdown of the Detroit bullpen and the David Ortiz 8th inning Grand Slam.
Scherzer is of course a beast with the heavy FBs - mid 90s with big movement on the end - and he's not going to change anything about the way he goes about it. No secrets here - he not only uses the FB to get ahead in counts but keeps throwing it and gets a lot of his Ks with it - esp in early innings If it's working as usual - he waits until later to break out more SLs, CHs and throws a CU in there once an inning or so just to keep 'em guessing, sometimes trying to back door it to LHers to get them off his CH. He was great in game 2 - gave up only 1 run on 2 hits over 7 inn with 13Ks. He walked only 2 - Ellsbury and Ortiz. The only real lick he gave up was an RBI double to Pedroia in the 6th following a single by Victorino. He figures to be no easier tonight. The Red Sox will have to try to make him work as much as possible early if they want a shot at the Tigers bullpen again.
Bucholz has a lot of different pitches - at least 5 (FB. Cutter, Split, CU, CH). He mixes it up so much that it's hard to sit on the FB and he gets a lot of his strikeouts with it on called strikes in breaking ball counts when guys are frozen by it. He's tough throwing the FB inside to LHers and tailing it back over the inside corner.
In gm 2 Bucholz pitched well early - gave up only a 2 out double to Martinez then a 2 out rbi single to Avila in I think the 2nd inning. But he ran into trouble in the 6th - giving up 2 bombs (Cabrera solo shot and a 2 runner to Avila). His final line was 5.2inn - 8 hits - 6 runs, 5 earned. Farrell will surely be watching him very carefully the second time and esp the third time thru the L/U tonight.
Plays
Just as last night - taking the better ball club against the Cy Younger.
In the event these go down I will in all probability be following up with Boston again in a Fenway gm 7.
Boston/Bucholz 5 inn at -107 for 2 Units
Boston/Bucholz Full Game at -112 for 2 Units
Boston Reverse Run Line at ++++ for 1 Unit
Also have a total of 4 Units on Boston for the series at an overall -103. Could be a big night.
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