[No coincidences]

The line for the ALCS closed around -120 in favor of Boston before it started. Through three games, Red Sox are up 2-1 -- or right where they should be according to home field advantage. Tigers are favored today, and still have Sanchez, Scherzer and Verlander potentially pitching the next three games.

Yet when I click on the series line this morning, it's -280!!!

Hate to admit it, fellas, but that says it all. No reason for Boston to be much more than -180 or so right now heading into Game 4 unless oddsmakers have left the Tigers for dead and declared the series virtually over.

[blackeyeshamus]

Hate to admit it, NC, but
I think LB is onto something
with his Red Sox plays today.

[blackeyeshamus]

Then again, the Red Sox
are a public team, and books
might be steaming that line
to fatten their gravy train.

[I/O]

Chin up

There's always next year for the massive payroll to puke it in the post season, again.

Maybe they can pick up Cano. He'd fit in perfect.

[EXhoosier10]

Lines for Boston should look like below for the rest of the series based on games 1, 2, and 3 and switching home field advantage when appropriate:

Gm4 (Peavy @ Fister): +108
Gm5 (Lester @ Sanchez): -101
Gm6 (Scherzer @ Buchholz): -130
Gm7 (Verlander @ Lackey): -105

Assuming these odds are implied win% and not including the book's juice, that gives Boston a 71.04% chance of winning the series. Breakeven on a -245 line is 71.01%.

Statistically, this line is just about spot on based on anticipated lines

[No coincidences]

Lines for Boston should look like below for the rest of the series based on games 1, 2, and 3 and switching home field advantage when appropriate:

Gm4 (Peavy @ Fister): +108
Gm5 (Lester @ Sanchez): -101
Gm6 (Scherzer @ Buchholz): -130
Gm7 (Verlander @ Lackey): -105

Assuming these odds are implied win% and not including the book's juice, that gives Boston a 71.04% chance of winning the series. Breakeven on a -245 line is 71.01%.

Interesting. A lot closer to -280 than I expected. I know it's 2-1 right now, but taking the individual game odds into consideration for each contest, did it make sense that Boston would be only -120 to win the series?

[DeLorean]

good thing i got Boston at +175 after game 1

[EXhoosier10]

Interesting. A lot closer to -280 than I expected. I know it's 2-1 right now, but taking the individual game odds into consideration for each contest, did it make sense that Boston would be only -120 to win the series?

Again, assuming these are implied win% and not factoring juice, using 5d closing lines + what was listed, breakeven was -118. I imagine their projected lines + series lines are pretty well correlated.

Using openers instead of closers and adjusting HFA for remaining games based on openers instead of above, Boston's odds to win the ALCS should have been -103. Woudln't surprise me if they were getting heavy action on Boston early on and wanted to charge a premium.

[Big Bear]

The line for the ALCS closed around -120 in favor of Boston before it started. Through three games, Red Sox are up 2-1 -- or right where they should be according to home field advantage. Tigers are favored today, and still have Sanchez, Scherzer and Verlander potentially pitching the next three games.

Yet when I click on the series line this morning, it's -280!!!

Hate to admit it, fellas, but that says it all. No reason for Boston to be much more than -180 or so right now heading into Game 4 unless oddsmakers have left the Tigers for dead and declared the series virtually over.

look man the San Francisco Giants were +4,000 to win the world series last year
when the Giants were down 0-2 heading to Cincinnati.

Needless to say the Giants went on to win the World Series..


Baseball is played 1 game at a time. 1 inning at a time.
1 pitch at a time.

The Tigers World Series hopes are not over just b/c the books
are giving them +250 odds to get there.

Stop with all this " pinnacle is telling us this"
"The books are saying that"

[No coincidences]

look man the San Francisco Giants were +4,000 to win the world series last year
when the Giants were down 0-2 heading to Cincinnati.

Needless to say the Giants went on to win the World Series..


Baseball is played 1 game at a time. 1 inning at a time.
1 pitch at a time.

The Tigers World Series hopes are not over just b/c the books
are giving them +250 odds to get there.

Stop with all this " pinnacle is telling us this"
"The books are saying that"

Thanks for setting me straight. I had no idea.



I love SBR. I'm getting advice from a guy who hasn't won an MLB bet since June.

The Giants example is stupid. They were down 0-2 in a divisional series going on the road. Of course their odds would be through the roof.

The DET/BOS series today is in no way, shape or form comparable.

[Big Bear]

Thanks for setting me straight. I had no idea.



I love SBR. I'm getting advice from a guy who hasn't won an MLB bet since June.

The Giants example is stupid. They were down 0-2 in a divisional series going on the road. Of course their odds would be through the roof.

The DET/BOS series today is in no way, shape or form comparable.

I wasnt giving you advice. I was just stating that your Tigers still have a chance.

I also was not comparing the two series's . I'm saying they were +4000
and they still won. So just b/c your boys are +250 does not mean they are done.

[EXhoosier10]

I wasnt giving you advice. I was just stating that your Tigers still have a chance.

I also was not comparing the two series's . I'm saying they were +4000
and they still won. So just b/c your boys are +250 does not mean they are done.

We all appreciate your sage advice

[Big Bear]

see Coiner,

Tigers aint done yet.

[Big Bear]

Anibal on the bump tonight.

gotta like the Tigers chances.

[I/O]

Fat Boy Fielder booed on his home field BY HIS OWN FANS??? Say it ain't so!

I don't know what's funnier, the awesome Detroit fans or the fact that the foody is gonna be there ANOTHER SEVEN YEARS and they are booing him now!



I'm thinking a couple more tats may improve his currently aweful defensive and offensive abilities

Do you know what color Fielder's shoes are.............

[I/O]

see Coiner,

Tigers aint done yet.

awwwwweeee

that's cute

"Coiner"???

Lil Coin callin papa, "Coiner"