(actually 5 reasons, but three are main points)
1) Cards are home dogs.
I love home dogs.
I love betting home dogs when the home team doesn't lose at home. (Well of course they lose, but I am making a point here) Cards are 54-27 at home this season. That's exactly 2 out of 3. 2 out of 3 all season at home (.667) is a rock solid percentage.
Bush is a very real home field advantage. Some poo-poo the home field advantage in baseball, Bush ain't the Trop where there are more Red Sox fans than Rays fans, Bush is extremely intimidating.
2) Card starter is getting no respect from the odds maker.
Joe Kelly is the starter, not Joe Saunders.
Kelly was 10-5, 2.69 ERA. Nice ! 1.35 WH/IP, mediocre, walks one batter too many, but certainly not "wild thing" by any stretch.
Even though LA beat the Cards 3 out 4 in St. Louis in August, it was Kelly who went pitch for pitch against some hamburger named Kershaw and beat him 5-1.
3) Dodger starter is getting too much love from Vegas off his regular season record this year.
Yes, Donald Greinke, but you can call me Zach, posted rock solid across the board numbers, fact still remains he is a head case, and has big time problems in prime time, bright lights, big city situations.
Proof?
OK, Greinke's mental problems are well documented, and his post season record (you know, when the pressure is on, when it matters) sucks,
Greinke's post season numbers, well, suck.
5.56 ERA sucks. 1.36 WH/IP in the post season doesn't really suck that ad, but you can sure see suck from there.
4) Cardinals bull pen is 100 percent healthy, Joe Kelly ain't going nine unless he's got a no hitter through 8, and even then he might not see nine.
His job is to keep the Cards in the game, turn it over to a good group of bullpen relievers.
5) Cardinal experience
Carlos Beltran has a crap load of post season experience, so does Holliday, you know the rest of the list.
Oh sure, Carpenter is a little green, and a couple of others, but Freese is a proven WS hero, Holliday is clutch, and that guy Beltran is the greatest post season hitter in my generation.
The greatest Nashy you say?
Yes, Beltran is the most successful post season hitter in this generation, not saying all time, but no other hitter has had more post season success than Beltran in the past few post seasons.
Want to bet Kershaw and LA at Bush in game 2 over Wacha?, go for it, we'll discuss that this weekend.
But for tonight's game, game 1, I am expecting the home dog to not just bark, but bite as well.
Woof, woof.
Cards +121 (5 Dimes) for me.
200 gets me 240 and change.