Despite a tough A's loss - escaped yesterday with a slight + thanks to Peavy, BoSox and esp the 9th inning insurance run for the RL cover.
Sitting now on a fat +180 play on Cardinals to advance to NLCS which was placed with Cards down 2 gms to 1.
STL has it right back where they want it here - their ace with the ball in front of the home crowd - and the Wainwright wipeout curve has been yakkin. He had 5 Ws in his L6 starts of reg season and then allowed the Pirates only 1 run over 7 inn in the gm 1 W over this same lineup. All systems appear to be go.
The only wild card is the kid Cole going for Pittsb.. I think Hurdle made a great move in going with him. It certainly gives them their best chance. I would have loved the Cards here even more if he went with AJ.
Cole may be just 23 with only 4 mos in the Bigs - but this is not like Francona going with Salazar vs Tampa in their fly or die game last week. Salazar has a great arm but at this point in his career is just a 1 pitch pitcher - the big FB. Cole looked more like Matt Harvey (or even Verlander of last year) in winning gm 2 at Busch - getting ahead in counts w/ high 90's power 2 seamers he throws as hard as any starter in the game - plus he worked in great ++ secondary pitches as well. He gave up only 1 run on 2 hits over 7 inn. in what was then virtually a must win situation as well.
The big question tonight is can he do it again? That game was the first time he had ever faced STL. One steadfast rule of baseball is that unfamiliarity always favors the pitcher. The Cardinals are no longer unfamiliar. And there is no better club at analyzing what opposing pitchers do to them than STL.
There's also one other distinction here vs gm 1 re Cole - he was not matched up vs Wainwright in that one. And whether Wainwright is capable of doing it again is not at question.
Another significant but more general Cardinals edge is that they're of course steeled by their experience and history of coming through in so many October elimination games in recent years (and not only the players but the entire baseball operations apparatus - even re things like dealing with tickets, media, etc.). This versus the vast relative inexperience of the current Pirates personnel/organization in such high profile/high pressure post season situations.
Bottom line - pressing it up a little on STL today with a 5 inn and a small RL play - but would have no problem taking Wainwright at today's game price absent the series play. Also looking at the futures on STL to win the NL over LAD. The Dodgers figure to be over priced in every game and on every proposition the rest of the way.
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