[Willie Bee]

Like the Royals and Pirates, the Baltimore Orioles are another once-proud franchise experiencing lean times. Some poor decisions by the front office and a lack of pitching have been the primary reasons. But at least the O's can cheer Cal Ripken's Hall of Fame induction this July.

After making some strides, though they were somewhat baby steps, from 2001-2004, the Orioles have slowly regressed the last couple of seasons, dropping four games in the win column from 2004-2005 and again from 2005-2006. Coincidentally, attendance at Camden Yards has fallen from just over three million in 2001 to a little more than 2.1 million last season.

Several hundred of those 2.1 million last year had enough close to the end of the season and let their displeasure in the team, and owner Peter Angelos in particular, show in a staged walkout of a game in Baltimore on September 21. Angelos’ response to the protest was to tell reporters that the fans who participated in the even had no clue what it took to run a baseball team. To which many a Baltimore fan were left wondering why Angelos wasn’t walking arm-in-arm with them.

Some may point to the Curse of Jeffrey Maier as the point in time that the Orioles jumped the shark, so to speak. No doubt that play in the ’96 ALCS did play a part in the outcome of that game, and even the series. But Baltimore came right back in 1997 with a 98-win season, only to fall in that year’s ALCS to the Indians. And as far as I know, Jeffrey Maier did not attend any of those playoff games and work his voodoo against the O’s.

Most of Baltimore’s woes can be directly traced to some pretty terrible pitching since their last postseason appearance in 1997. And without a truly talented offense to offset the lack of pitching, the Orioles’ fate has been sealed ever since. Add in the fact they reside in the AL East, a division pretty much ruled by the Yankees and Red Sox for a while and with the Blue Jays doing their best to make it a three team race, and you have all you need for a fourth-place team in a five squad setup.

Sadly, fourth once again looks to be as good as the Birds can do this season. And assuming that does happen, Angelos will likely have 100,000-200,000 fewer fans to worry about walking out on his team in the middle of a game.

OFFENSE
Assuming they can stay healthy, always a big if with any team, I’m really liking the offensive potential of the group that VPs Mike Flanagan and Jim Duquette have put together at this stage of the game. Let’s look at the two biggest offseason acqusitions first, especially since the two players could be battling each other for playing time.

Baltimore inked Aubrey Huff, who was with Tampa and Houston in 2006, and Jay Payton, who was a major contributor to Oakland’s AL West championship squad a year ago. Huff can fill a few roles, though none with what you’d call excellent defense. But considering some of the free agent contracts handed out this past winter, the Orioles seem to have made a pretty sweet deal with Huff who they locked up for three years and a little more than $20 million.

The signing of Huff probably relegated Payton to the fourth outfielder role with the club, but his right-handed bat should still see plenty of playing time spelling either Huff in left or Corey Patterson in center.

Speaking of Patterson, the former Cub put together a pretty good 2006, upping his batting average by better than 60 points, his on-base percentage by 60 even, and his slugging by nearly 100 while stealing a career-high 45 bases. He might be able to get back to his 2003-2004 levels this year.

With Huff, Payton and Patterson sharing left and center field, right field belongs solely to Nick Markakis who broke onto the scene in fine fashion last year after a rough start to the season. The Orioles’ first round pick in 2003, who was also a standout pitcher at the junior college level, was hitting under .200 after the first month of 2006 and had many questioning Baltimore’s decision to bring him up to start last year. But he caught fire eventually, especially in August when he banged 10 of his 16 HR on the season.

The infield and dish will be pretty much the same as last year with Ramon Hernandez at catcher, Kevin Millar at first, Brian Roberts at second, Melvin Mora at third and Miguel Tejada the shortstop. The two keys here are keeping Roberts healthy and at the head of the batting order, and hoping that Mora, now 35, can avoid a third consecutive season of seeing his numbers decline. There isn’t much depth behind any of the infielders, except at first where Gibbons and Huff can fill in, so a long-term injury would really be crippling, no pun intended.

PITCHING
Assuming they can stay healthy...ooops! Already used that line. Not to mention the pitching staff has already suffered one pretty big injury as Kris Benson is expected to miss the entire season with a shoulder injury. Perhaps he can stay home and keep his wife busy and out of the news while he’s rehabbing.

The rotation should begin and end with Canadian southpaws as Eric Bedard is expected to be the Opening Day starter and Adam Loewen is the odds on favorite to be the fifth starter now that Benson is out. Bedard has ace material and is coming off a 15-11, 3.76 season over 33 starts. Getting another inning per start out of the lefty would be nice, however.

Loewen’s numbers - - 6-6, 5.37, 19 starts - - don’t look too hot until you remember the 22-year-old was seeing his first MLB action and he was absolutely lit up by the Red Sox in three outings. Versus Boston he was 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in 13 innings.

The middle threesome in the rotation will consist of Daniel Cabrera, Jaret Wright and Steve Trachsel. Cabrera knows a thing or two about being lit up by Boston. In nine career starts against the Sawks, the Dominican righty has pitched 33 innings, allowed 34 earned runs and walked 32. Considering his career ERA in 82 starts is 4.75, Cabrera is a regular Juan Marichal against most other clubs.

Wright came over to Baltimore this winter at the expense of reliever Chris Britton and it will be interesting to see Wright reunited with pitching coach Leo Mazzone with whom he worked while with Atlanta in 2004 when he went 15-8 with a 3.28 ERA. Trachsel was signed after Benson’s injury came to light, and is expected to provide his usual Jekyll & Hyde act from month to month and start to start.

Chris Ray, off a fine 33-save, 2.73 ERA in his first season as a major league closer, is back in that role this year. He got little assistance from his fellow relievers last year, but that should be better in 2007 after the O’s sunk about $40 million into relievers during the offseason. Todd Williams will return in either a setup or middle relief role, but other than him and Ray, the pen has a lot of new faces.

Most prominent among those new faces are Danys Baez and Jamie Walker. Baez is returning to the AL after a rather disappointing year with Atlanta last year, and has closing experience. Walker will serve the lefty-specialist role as he did with the Tigers the last five years when he put together a 3.33 ERA in 270 innings for the Tigers.

Chad Bradford and Scott Williamson are also in camp to fill relief roles. And there’s been a Paul Shuey sighting as well. Hampered by hip injuries, Shuey retired in 2005 but had a new procedure done last year that he hopes will allow him to return to the mound now.

Key Player(s): Hey, it would take a lot of career years to have a shot at the postseason in Baltimore. But without a doubt the two most critical players this season are Daniel Cabrera and Jaret Wright. If Cabrera can finally break out of the ‘potential’ mode and Wright can make 30 starts, the O’s will at least be respectable.

Futures: The Greek has as much faith in the Orioles this year as they do the Pirates with the break in the win total for Baltimore set at 70½. The O’s are part of The Greek’s field to win the AL East. The Birds are 50:1 to win their division at VIP which sounds about right to me. What doesn’t sound right is VIP has Baltimore at 40:1 to win the AL Pennant. Unless VIP is thinking the Orioles are a solid shot at the AL Wildcard, the math doesn’t work for me.

My projections have the O’s at 73 wins with a good season, and 71 on average. So I like the over 70½ right now.

[bigboydan]

This team is even in worse shape than last year IMO Willie.

The might have gotten rid of Latroy Hawkins, but they got Danny Biaz to replace him. I'm sorry, but I can't see how the Baltimore Sun can clam they made some very good moves during the off season when they clearly didn't.

Needless to say I'll go with the under 70.5 (-125) wins this year.

[Willie Bee]

They have to be better off just getting rid of Rodrigo Lopez' weak-ass fastball and his surly attitude.

Having Steve Trachsel in place of Kris Benson isn't a good thing, though Benson wasn't necessarily lights out himself last year. The O's did improve their bullpen, that fact cannot be argued (on paper). Baez is an improvement over Hawkins and Jamie Walker should help as well.

But bottom line, if Daniel Cabrera doesn't finally realize some of his potential, and Jaret Wright has another injury-prone season, your under 70½ should be a winner, Dan. I just happen to think they can improve 3+ in the win column with the team they have compared to the team they had.

[MBENZ]

This team is even in worse shape than last year IMO Willie.

The might have gotten rid of Latroy Hawkins, but they got Danny Biaz to replace him. I'm sorry, but I can't see how the Baltimore Sun can clam they made some very good moves during the off season when they clearly didn't.

Needless to say I'll go with the under 70.5 (-125) wins this year.

Dan,I read the sun everyday and wander if Angelos don't own a part of it.Seems you get alot more truthful feedback from the public commentary.Last couple of years they've been a good one to fade and I agree that this year will be no different.

[Willie Bee]

Something to watch the next few weeks. My guess is it had nothing to do with what the doctors told him and everything to do with Benson realizing that anything was better than spending time around the house with that thing he's married to


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2007/news/story?id=2773782

Associated Press

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. -- Baltimore Orioles pitcher Kris Benson is making a final, desperate attempt to avoid surgery on his injured right shoulder with aggressive rehabilitation.

Following the advice of two of the three medical experts he consulted, Benson will start a program geared toward easing the pain from a torn rotator cuff. If successful, it would allow him to pitch this season.

[bigboydan]

Loewen grows into starting role with Orioles

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. -- Adam Loewen's transformation from an underachieving prospect into a major league pitcher had little to do with the development of his talented left arm. It was more about the part of his body located directly under this baseball cap.

Loewen was 18 when the Baltimore Orioles made him the fourth overall pick in the 2002 amateur draft. He didn't sign until May of the following year and had only seven minor league games of experience before participating in his first big league training camp.

Bodog.com lists the Orioles at +1500 to win the AL East title this season.

In 2004 and again in 2005, the left-hander isolated himself from the rest of the team. He was one of the youngest players in the clubhouse and had little interest in talking about baseball.

''I wasn't a very social person when I got here. I just didn't know how to act in front of adults, guys who have been around forever and expect you to have a lot of respect for the game,'' Loewen recalled. ''When I was 19, 20 years old I didn't have that. Guys helped me see this is a game to respect. You have to respect your teammates - and the game.''

Loewen had a 14-17 record in the minors before he finally started acting like a grown-up. After beginning the 2006 season with Double-A Bowie, he got his first big-league action on May 23. He pitched in seven games before being optioned to Triple-A Ottawa, then returned to the Orioles for good after the All-Star break.

He finished 6-6 with a 5.37 ERA in 22 games, including 19 starts.

''It could have been better but it could have been worse. We had a great hitting team and they really kept me in a few games,'' Loewen said. ''But I had to get one out of the way so I could feel comfortable. I think this year will be a lot different.''

Loewen's cerebral approach and newfound dedication have made him an integral part of the rotation. He turns 23 next month, but acts much older.

''Adam Loewen has probably made more progress than any young player I've seen from one year to the next,'' Orioles executive vice president Mike Flanagan said. ''Last year he made a huge leap to the major leagues and fit right in. He's very comfortable, he knows what he needs to do. He's absorbed a lot in a short period of time. We're really proud of the way he has come along.''

Loewen put his maturity to use last spring at the World Baseball Classic, when he pitched 3 2-3 scoreless innings to lead Canada to victory over the United States.

''Anytime you go against the best it's a positive thing if you come out on top. We weren't expected to win that game,'' Loewen said. ''It's something I'll remember my whole life. Just to have that under my belt and know I could face those type of players, it gave me a level of confidence when I got called up in the middle of the season.''

One of the byproducts of the five-year contract Loewen signed in 2003 was that he would have to be a part of the Orioles active roster this season. If Baltimore chooses to send him to the minor leagues, he first must pass through waivers.

Fortunately, that won't be an issue. Loewen is delighted that the Orioles genuinely want him to be part of the pitching staff - as a starter.

''I just didn't want to be a reliever this year. I wanted to earn my way here,'' he said. ''All the things I've gone through and the steps I went through to get to this level, to feel I earned my way here is big for me.''

Making it to the big leagues is one thing. Staying is another. Loewen has the talent - and the mind set - to be a keeper.

''The way he's evolved in a short period of time is phenomenal,'' Orioles manager Sam Perlozzo said. ''He understands what he's doing. He knows how to go to other pitches when one isn't working. He's just got a feel for it. For a young kid, that's something exciting for us.''

[Razz]

I think Cabrera is going to have an absolutely huge year. His "stuff" has always been as good as anybody, but now, with a year with Mazzone under his belt, I think he can rein in some of the inconsistencies that have made him only an average pitcher in his youth. Now that his walks will be down (I assume), he can become an elite pitcher in the AL.

[Razz]

The problem with the O's, though, is that even if Bedard and Cabrera win 70% of their starts, the team is still .500 at best.

[bigboydan]

Payton could go on disabled list with hamstring injury

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (AP) -- Baltimore Orioles outfielder Jay Payton could start the season on the disabled list with a strained left hamstring, although he's still holding out hope of returning within a week or two.

Payton sustained a grade one strain of his lower hamstring while running from second to third Monday in a spring training game against Minnesota. When he arrived at the clubhouse Tuesday, Payton slipped on a pair of shorts and a T-shirt and promptly headed toward the training room.

"I'm going to do whatever I have to do to get it right. I don't want it to be something that's going to linger," he said. "After these first few days we'll get a better gauge."

Payton signed as a free agent with the Orioles during the offseason after hitting .296 with Oakland last year. He was poised to start on opening day next week against the Twins, but that's almost certainly not going to happen.

"We'll just treat it, be aggressive with it but be smart. Hopefully it won't be a month," he said. "It's just a matter of whether it will be a week, two weeks. It's kind of hard to tell right now. I can walk, but obviously I can't run."

The last time Payton was on the disabled list was in 2001, when he missed two months with the New York Mets with a strained right hamstring. He also missed seven weeks with a right hamstring injury in 1998, when he was in the minor leagues.

"This isn't like that. When I did that, I couldn't even walk," Payton said.

But he's a long way from sprinting from first to third on a single. Asked if Payton might start the season on the DL, Orioles manager Sam Perlozzo replied, "It's a realistic possibility."

Said Payton: "If I have to, I have to. My goal is not to. I've only been on the DL once in the last seven years. My preference is not to be on it. But if that's what has to happen, it's better to be a little cautious now. I've got a week here that I'm not really missing any games, and if I have to miss a few games in the early going to be right, then so be it."

If Payton can't play on opening day, Corey Patterson will likely start in center field against the Twins on opening day.