[BeatingBaseball]

Clev is at home. Clev has been smokin' hot with 10 Ws in a row. Clev has one of MLBs greatest young arms going tonight - Salazar is pure power - a blow away 97mph 4 seamer - over 11Ks per 9. Meanwhile, TB has been bouncing from one city to another on a daily basis and living out of suitcases for a week.

So what's the pick...Tampa Bay all the way.

I have TB winning this game at about 60%. No problem laying -120 or even more here. Major +EV.

Why TB? Multiple reasons - not the least of which is the Rays have a hot team dynamic as well.
TB has won 9 of L11 and 8 of L11 on the road. They've also won 5 of L7 vs Cleve and 5 of L6 AT Cleve.

I specifically like Cobb over Salazar here - but a more general Lefty-Righty analysis in itself also goes to TB.
The Rays lineup is at its best vs RH starters and will be facing one in Salazaar.
The Cleve lineup is at its best vs LH starters but will be facing a RHer in Cobb.

TB also has better team D. Although errors are by no means the full measure of team D, TB 59 errors on the year (2nd), Cleve 98 (20th)http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/...g/seasontype/2
Team defense gets magnified in post season situations.
(Also expect this is something that will bite the Dodgers this post season. LAD was down with the WSox and Houston in errors).

Also give the managerial matchup to Uncle Joe. Francona has done a great job, is a strong leader/motivator and a good in-game manager - but Maddon manufactures more on offense, positions better on defense and is the most creative, smartest in-game mgr in the AL.
Great example below - better be awake when you play Uncle Joe's club:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPugy...layer_embedded



Rays also have the singlemost big game player and most dangerous bat - Longoria. I heard Swisher say that the Cleve club is just happy to be in this position. I don't think Longoria and co. is thinking that way whatsoever.

Salazar - Cobb
Salazaar (FB 97, Slider, Change) has phenomenal swing and miss stuff but he's just 23 yrs old, has made only 10 big league starts and a total of only 2 (two) big league wins. He's gone beyond 6 inn in a big league game exactly once in his life and his Sept. record was 1-2. Francona knows more about him than anyone (certainly me) but he's taking a big chance giving Salazar the ball in an elimination game like this. He hasn't walked many guys at all for the way he pitches (2.6 BB/9) but it could be different tonight - surely the leash will be short as he'll be facing a very plate disciplined L/U in TB - they all have good strike zones and get a lot of walks (I think 2nd in all MLB). Like all big K guys, he'll probably have a high pitch count early and the Rays are going to make him work - make him bring that high 4 seamer down in the zone.

Cobb is young also (26 or 27) - but is a much more mature pitcher and has been through a lot (the big concussion injury and recovery). He's made 54 big league starts, 22 this year (and only 3 L's). And he's now won 10 or more big league games in two consecutive years. He was 3-0 in Sept.

Although Cobb (FB 90-91) doesn't throw nearly as hard as Salazar -- he has a killer split (below), a nice Curve for the RHers and a good Change for the Leftys. He doesn't blow it by guys but gets a decent amount of strikeouts on movement alone and a ton of ground balls. He's in fact been so good that Hellickson said Cobb has been better than Price - "He's been the most consistent. Right now, you could definitely say he's the best on our staff, and probably the best in the American League right now. … I can't think of anybody better."






And if this becomes a bullpen game, the Rays pitchers just throw more strikes and get ahead in counts more consistently than the Cleve staff. And Rays hitters just have more plate discipline than the Native Americans. These things matter in October.

[PaperTrail07]

Nice Write up

Going with Cleve...Salazar is on fire AND they haven't seen much of him........

[Spedizzo]

Very nice write-up...

Will still come down to luck though as all baseball games do. All the cappin' in the world doesn't make a difference if the Rays bats are cold, Cobb is mildy constipated and leaves a few too many hanging up there, etc.

Good luck

[2daBank]

tampa does not hit righties better than lefties in fact both teams have better numbers vs lefties..

tb hits 15 points lower vs righties, has a 10 point lower obp, and scores a half run fewer a gm vs righties opposed to lefties..

not sure where you came up with that but it is false..

[2daBank]

not to mention you must think books are retarded, they opened almost everywhere as either pick or cle as slight favs and they did that in a gm that tb has a 60% chance of winning? hard to believe books are in business giving such a big edge on a gm that is basically the only thing going, strange..

[BeatingBaseball]

tampa does not hit righties better than lefties in fact both teams have better numbers vs lefties..

tb hits 15 points lower vs righties, has a 10 point lower obp, and scores a half run fewer a gm vs righties opposed to lefties..

not sure where you came up with that but it is false..

Cleve went 56-50 (.528, 6 games over .500) vs RH starters. They were 36-20 (.643, 16 over) vs LH starters. TB was 62-48 (.564 and 14 over) vs RH starters and 29-23 (.558 and 6 over) vs LH starters.

[2daBank]

Cleve went 56-50 (.528, 6 games over .500) vs RH starters. They were 36-20 (.643, 16 over) vs LH starters. TB was 62-48 (.564 and 14 over) vs RH starters and 29-23 (.558 and 6 over) vs LH starters.

yes but there record when a righty pitched doesnt necessarily have anything to do with them being better vs righties, plenty of factors go into record, judging by their drop off in every statistical category hitting vs righties id venture a guess that they have a better w/l percentage against righties cause their pitchers happened to perform better in those gms..not sure how it can be argued differently when they score a full half run less vs rhp..

[Louisvillekid1]

Nice write up heuye

[BeatingBaseball]

not to mention you must think books are retarded, they opened almost everywhere as either pick or cle as slight favs and they did that in a gm that tb has a 60% chance of winning? hard to believe books are in business giving such a big edge on a gm that is basically the only thing going, strange..

The books are anything but retarded - but as you know - in their formulation of the opening line the actual win expectation is largely subordinate to the anticipated money to be handled on each side of the game. The line movement alone may be telling as to the inaccuracy of the opening number relative to the true win expectation here..

[BeatingBaseball]

yes but there record when a righty pitched doesnt necessarily have anything to do with them being better vs righties, plenty of factors go into record, judging by their drop off in every statistical category hitting vs righties id venture a guess that they have a better w/l percentage against righties cause their pitchers happened to perform better in those gms..not sure how it can be argued differently when they score a full half run less vs rhp..

Last time I checked they pay tickets based on the W-L.

[2daBank]

Last time I checked they pay tickets based on the W-L.

yea and last i checked a team that scores a half run less a gm vs righties doesnt hit righties better...

[pattymayo]

Agreed

Love Rays here

Better pitcher, and just a cold blooded team that has already won basically 2 straight elimination games on the road (counting Toronto)

Plus show me a guy more clutch in a big spot than Longo

[pattymayo]

Also, Tampa has a huge edge in the bullpen

[BeatingBaseball]

yea and last i checked a team that scores a half run less a gm vs righties doesnt hit righties better...

If you read the original post a little more carefully you'll note that I never said they "hit righties better." I said their club is "at its best vs RH starters." There's a difference. W-L vs RH/LH starter encompasses not only how they set their lineup vs the starter but how the bench is then set to deal with the inevitable contralateral pitching changes to follow. The impact of the LH/RH starting matchup on the potential outcome involves the entire full game process. That's why it's a valuable metric.

[PaperTrail07]

Nice Win....Indians shit the bed with RISP

[No coincidences]

Hope to see you around more, BB.

Always enjoy your posts.