[2daBank]

im gonna be betting all playoffs so figured might as well start a thread and maybe i can win y'all some money, whether it fading or following hell if i know ..played tampons in the 1st gm posted plenty of places but who cares my record keeping is non-existent anyways and technically wasnt playoffs so here we go..


cincy/pit un 6.5.... to me this has all the makings of a pitchers duel, unless reds just completely self district.

cuerto vs buccos..

Johnny Cueto (R) Previous Starts vs. Pittsburgh
Date	Opposition	Scr	Line	W/L	IP	H	R	ER	SO	BB	HR	PIT	P/IP	G/F
05/31/13	@ PIT	6-0	-109/7	W/U	8.0	1	0	0	6	1	0	103	12.9	11.00
04/13/13	@ PIT	1-3	-140/7	L/U	4.1	2	1	1	3	1	0	52	12.0	0.00
09/30/12	@ PIT	4-3	-147/7.5	W/U	7.0	6	3	1	6	1	1	98	14.0	1.75
06/06/12	PIT	5-4	-180/7.5	W/O	7.2	6	3	3	6	1	0	118	15.4	1.60
05/30/12	@ PIT	1-2	-117/7	L/U	7.0	5	2	2	5	4	0	105	15.0	3.00
05/04/12	@ PIT	6-1	-133/7	W/P	9.0	7	1	1	4	0	0	110	12.2	1.57
07/20/11	@ PIT	3-1	-121/7.5	W/U	6.0	4	1	1	4	2	0	98	16.3	0.83
05/19/11	PIT	3-5	-167/8	L/P	5.0	5	3	3	5	3	0	94	18.8	0.80
09/12/10	PIT	1-3	-240/9	L/U	7.0	3	0	0	7	2	0	124	17.7	1.00
08/04/10	@ PIT	9-4	-153/7.5	W/O	6.0	3	1	1	6	2	1	105	17.5	0.25

liriano vs cincy

Francisco Liriano (R) Previous Starts vs. Cincinnati
Date	Opposition	Scr	Line	W/L	IP	H	R	ER	SO	BB	HR	PIT	P/IP	G/F
09/20/13	CIN	5-6	-119/6.5	L/O	8.0	3	2	2	7	3	1	94	11.8	3.67
07/19/13	@ CIN	3-5	-106/7.5	L/O	4.1	5	5	5	4	4	1	98	22.6	2.50
06/17/13	@ CIN	1-4	116/8	L/U	6.0	5	2	2	6	2	2	84	14.0	0.75
06/01/13	CIN	0-2	-126/7.5	L/U	6.0	4	1	1	11	1	0	96	16.0	6.00

in liriano's 11 home starts he is 8-1 with a 1.47 era and .96 whip with teams avg just over 2 rpg..

reds not great vs lefties as a team, hitting .235 with .312 obp and avg less than 2 runs per 9 the last 5.. while pit is worse vs righties, hitting .237 and avg less than 4 rpg on the season..


with the exception of byrd ceuto has owned this pit lineup over the years and liriano has shut down votto/bruce/phillips all season...only way i think we get beat here is if this gm gets ties at 3, short of that i think we talking 4-2/3-2 type of gm..


gl everyone..

[No coincidences]

Like seeing these Banker threads!

[2daBank]

Like seeing these Banker threads!

at least some1 does

got a good line on the total at least as it is taking on some heavy juice to the under now..

[BiffTFinancial]

What's up, Bank? On Reds/Rats under 6' and FF under 3 both with some juice. BOL pal.

[BiffTFinancial]

What's up, Bank? Fired up the model this afternoon, and though it's surely rusty, definitely agrees with you. On Reds/Rats under 6' and FF under 3 both with some juice. BOL pal.

[2daBank]

What's up, Bank? On Reds/Rats under 6' and FF under 3 both with some juice. BOL pal.

i like it, wanna play pit as well but feel like line little out of hand so just hoping for a 2-1 gm..

[Speedy88]

On the under as well. G/L bank. I think the Pirates pull out a win, just don't feel confident enough to lay -140 juice.

[2daBank]

On the under as well. G/L bank. I think the Pirates pull out a win, just don't feel confident enough to lay -140 juice.

pretty much same way i feel..plus id be thrilled for cards to get cincy instead of pit so kinda rooting for the reds as cards will prob handle them with ease..

[SilverTongueFox]

I must have slept through September baseball. When the hell did Pirates get Morneau? Just turned on game and saw Morneau in a Pirates uni.

[2daBank]

two russel martin hrs, blah, who would have thought that be what ultimately beats the under? guess should have just went with pit since i really liked them and trusted liriano,, oh well, i tend to do stupid shit like that a lot, lol..

[2daBank]

I must have slept through September baseball. When the hell did Pirates get Morneau? Just turned on game and saw Morneau in a Pirates uni.

think it was one of those after the trade deadline deals,,i didnt hardly bet or follow bases much after the ASB as needed a rest before fb got under way so still catching up myself.lol

[2daBank]

What's up, Bank? Fired up the model this afternoon, and though it's surely rusty, definitely agrees with you. On Reds/Rats under 6' and FF under 3 both with some juice. BOL pal.

i bet the model didnt account for that no offense catcher hitting 2 jacks either ..def feel stupid tho cause i liked pit just as well and let the juice keep me off them...

im assuming you arnt betting the tribe? i think i almost will have to be on them if i can get up around +110 or so..salazer's advanced metrics look freaking spectacular, i havnt seen him pitch seeing how i took off the last few months but k to walk ratio is fantastic, looks like his stuff is nasty in the vids i been watching, tampa hasnt seen him which always a plus, i see he hasnt went very deep into gms but not like he had incredibly high pitch counts, im assuming he was on a strict count being he so young? wouldnt think that be the case 2marro but would like to get your answer on this.. plus sounds like they could have him go till he cant then bring in masterson for 2/3 innings. is that right? cobb is a beast as well so wont be easy and maybe another gm i lean under but i like the vibe of this tribe team right now and not in the habit of thinking just cause the kid is young that he cant handle the moment..

[2daBank]

tribe +107.. (.5x)...yes im backing a rookie in a must win, yes cobb has been incredible. yes tampons have been thru this before..and yea tribe got here by running thru some serious weaklings down the stretch, not denying any of this..what i do like is salazar has some amazing peripherals, 2.75 xfip, 2.79 siera, a incredible 11.25 k per 9, over 4 to 1 strike out to walk ratio, and while yes he a rookie and this biggest gm of his life he has been pitching big gms all month to help tribe get to this point, tampa has not seem him which adv pitcher. he has not went deep into gms but it hasnt been because his pitch count has been high so think he can give us 6 quality innings in this gm..

while there no denying cobb has been fantastic as well and can be counted on to take his team deeper into the gm i think the x factor is if salazar can go hard for 5/6 good innings then tribe are gonna come in with masterson who has been good in this role and can go 2-3 innings and look at his numbers vs tampa this season..

PLAYER	SEASON	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Escobar, Yunel	2013	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Fuld, Sam	2013	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Jennings, Desmond	2013	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	.000	.333	.000	.333
Johnson, Kelly	2013	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Joyce, Matt	2013	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Lobaton, Jose	2013	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Loney, James	2013	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	.000	.333	.000	.333
Longoria, Evan	2013	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	.000	.333	.000	.333
Vogt, Stephen	2013	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	.500	.667	.500	1.167
Zobrist, Ben	2013	3	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.667	.667	.667	1.333
TOTAL	2013	24	1	3	0	0	0	0	4	0	8	0	0	.125	.250	.125	.375

to me this is a huge adv as while cobb can go further than salazar and has pitched well vs cle tribe essentially bringing in another ace to back the kid up who has already shut this team down once this season, obviously tiny 1 gm sample but fact is masterson is very good and has adapted to this role well as these are mastersons numbers in sept when he started coming out of the pen ..

DATE OPP W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR HB BB IBB SO NP-S AVG WHIP GO/AO SEP 02 BAL 0 1 3.52 1 1 0 0 0 0 1.0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 25-14 .224 1.21 2.03 SEP 25 CWS 0 0 3.50 1 0 0 0 0 0 1.0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 17-10 .224 1.21 2.04 SEP 27 @MIN 0 0 3.48 1 0 0 0 0 0 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 25-18 .223 1.21 2.04 SEP 29 @MIN 0 0 3.45 1 0 0 0 0 0 1.2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 23-13 .222 1.20 2.04 September[-] 0 1 1.93 4 1 0 0 0 0 4.2 2 1 1 0 1 2 0 7 90-55 .125 0.86 2.50

in the end i think much like last night where the buccos rewarded their fans for a long stretch of misery i think tribe find a way to ride the home crowd and pull out this win...



tribe/cards ml parlay .5 to 1.2

no reason to explain cards im a homer and want to get away w/o having to pay the juice on them in a way...


think i will be playing this under as well but havnt pulled the trigger yet..

[2daBank]

more parlays attempting to carry over to cards gm..

tb/cle un 7 / cards rl .15 to .55

tribe rl/cards ml .30 to .51

[Louisvillekid1]

ENjoy the thread bank

[2daBank]

ENjoy the thread bank

appreciate it brother..little upsetting cant get any discussion going in here like i prefer my threads to have. everyone busy in threads having dick measuring contest in these here playoffs it seems..

[Louisvillekid1]

This game is a complete flip.

I can see the kid pitching the game of his life @ home vs a team that has never seen him. But I also can see his pitch count getting high earlier from the patient more experienced Tampa Bay Lineup.

I just think the best way to bet this game is to watch the first inning or 2 before firing away. Yeah If the Rookie is bringing the nasty 3 digit stuff you'll get a weaker price but at least have a better feel for the possible outcome.

Hope you crush it bank

[ShogunRua]

Good luck banker. I was sorta thinking over tonight. I think both lineups will do a good job working the count and get to the bullpens early.

[2daBank]

Good luck banker. I was sorta thinking over tonight. I think both lineups will do a good job working the count and get to the bullpens early.

under a incredibly small play parlayed with cads rl.. no real confidence in it,,i could just as easily see a crazy gm with a bunch of runs as i could a pitchers duel.. i like both pitchers but i agree pens could very well be a factor. kinda hoping tribe pen consist of using masterson for a few innings tho which would keep tampa down i believe..

[ShogunRua]

under a incredibly small play parlayed with cads rl.. no real confidence in it,,i could just as easily see a crazy gm with a bunch of runs as i could a pitchers duel.. i like both pitchers but i agree pens could very well be a factor. kinda hoping tribe pen consist of using masterson for a few innings tho which would keep tampa down i believe..

Yeah, I'm not going to be too thrilled if Masterson comes in to relieve the rookie. It's just such a big game for both teams, I think they both find a way to score runs.

[BiffTFinancial]

i bet the model didnt account for that no offense catcher hitting 2 jacks either ..def feel stupid tho cause i liked pit just as well and let the juice keep me off them...

im assuming you arnt betting the tribe? i think i almost will have to be on them if i can get up around +110 or so..salazer's advanced metrics look freaking spectacular, i havnt seen him pitch seeing how i took off the last few months but k to walk ratio is fantastic, looks like his stuff is nasty in the vids i been watching, tampa hasnt seen him which always a plus, i see he hasnt went very deep into gms but not like he had incredibly high pitch counts, im assuming he was on a strict count being he so young? wouldnt think that be the case 2marro but would like to get your answer on this.. plus sounds like they could have him go till he cant then bring in masterson for 2/3 innings. is that right? cobb is a beast as well so wont be easy and maybe another gm i lean under but i like the vibe of this tribe team right now and not in the habit of thinking just cause the kid is young that he cant handle the moment..

Model definitely can't account for Johnny Cueto wetting himself on the mound due to being heckled by a bunch of mustachioed people in black wife-beaters.

No play for me on Rays/Tribe tonight. I have Tribe about 1,000u on the emotional ML. I think that best play is FF under. Rays are tough match-up for 5* Danny Salazar as they will work the count on him, but i've seen most of every start of his and he's fkn sick (might as well take pitches since about 1/3 of them are untouchable). He had Tommy John surgery a few years ago, and like some guys who have TJ, comes back better than was ever expected pre-injury. They took his pitch-count off last week and he won't be on one tonight. My understanding is that plan will be Salazar then Masterson for as long as possible - on a perfect night, 9 innings, but more likely 7 and hopefully 8. Salazar's advanced stats are unreal, and i believe that he will handle the moment. He's one of those athletes who doesn't generally show much emotion good or bad. Knowing that Masterson is waiting to come on can't hurt mentally. Tribe is carrying like 9-10 relievers after Salazar and Masterson, so Francona can bring guys in to face a single batter if need be (and if Salazar-then-Masterson for 7-8 inning plan works out).

2 more hours. GO TRIBE!!

[EXhoosier10]

This game is a complete flip.

I can see the kid pitching the game of his life @ home vs a team that has never seen him. But I also can see his pitch count getting high earlier from the patient more experienced Tampa Bay Lineup.

I just think the best way to bet this game is to watch the first inning or 2 before firing away. Yeah If the Rookie is bringing the nasty 3 digit stuff you'll get a weaker price but at least have a better feel for the possible outcome.

Hope you crush it bank

I'm with Louisville. I think the lack of any real thread for this game shows that nobdoy has a read on it. Nobody has a read on Salazar over such a samll sample, offesnes are similar, bullpens have performed similar, and masterson coming out of the 'pen is different than him starting --- 3 IP out of the pen against CHW and MIN are hardly a good barometer of how he's going to handle the "new" role (quotes cuz he used to relieve way back when). The line is a toss up, and deservedly so IMO.

[2daBank]

thats what i was wanting to hear..really like the thought of this kid followed by masterson..

[EXhoosier10]

@Biff, any thoughts on the weather at the Jake? I'm leaning on the under, especially with so many bullpen arms available to mix and match

[BiffTFinancial]

thats what i was wanting to hear..really like the thought of this kid followed by masterson..

Another thing about Salazar: he sports an adaptation of Hogan's beard when he pulled a heel-turn, turned into Hollywood Hogan and went to the NWO. Hope he pitches well tonight. I've made my schedule around trying to watch his starts ever since his call-up and, although i can't say he hasn't disappointed, he been outstanding more often than he's been mediocre. Still, Rays a tough matchup for him.

[BiffTFinancial]

@Biff, any thoughts on the weather at the Jake? I'm leaning on the under, especially with so many bullpen arms available to mix and match

Weather neutral for total. Agree on under, except for Gerry Davis is unpredictable behind the plate.

[BiffTFinancial]

Gerry Davis behind plate tonight. from my MLB thread on May 18th:

is this for real? from covers trends page for Rays/O's:

Rays are 5-24 in their last 29 games with Davis behind home plate.

that's a penetrating riot. i'm not looking to play a side in Carmona vs Jurrjens, but i can't believe that. what, did Joe Maddon feel up Gerry Davis' wife at a function or something?

[BiffTFinancial]

Gerry Davis behind plate tonight. from my MLB thread on May 18th:

is this for real? from covers trends page for Rays/O's:

Rays are 5-24 in their last 29 games with Davis behind home plate.

that's a penetrating riot. i'm not looking to play a side in Carmona vs Jurrjens, but i can't believe that. what, did Joe Maddon feel up Gerry Davis' wife at a function or something?

Rays did win this game, so through May 18th, they were 6-24 with Davis behind the plate. Looking to see if i can figure out more recent history but don't normally research umps that way so not sure if i'll have any luck.

[2daBank]

Rays did win this game, so through May 18th, they were 6-24 with Davis behind the plate. Looking to see if i can figure out more recent history but don't normally research umps that way so not sure if i'll have any luck.

wow,,yea ive never had anything like that in my ump notebook, hopefully he really hates madden, lol...

[BiffTFinancial]

wow,,yea ive never had anything like that in my ump notebook, hopefully he really hates madden, lol...

Whatever it takes.

[HOT WINGS]

Bank were on an island tonighr with Tribe. 95% of forum is on Rays Gl us!

[2daBank]

Bank were on an island tonighr with Tribe. 95% of forum is on Rays Gl us!

right on, i thought i was alone on this one! couldnt pick a better cat to ride with! gl to us!!

[2daBank]

well off to a shity start...hit the under but lost on tribe who stranded a unreal amount of runners,,,what did we have a 3 inning stretch where tribe had bases juiced 1 out no runs, next inning 1st and 3 rd no out, no runs, then again in the 7th same thing..gotta score some damn runs in those spots...so in summary, i liked buccos but played the under for more, liked tribe moe than underr last night so of coarse the under cashes,,on bright side just been smaller bets so plenty of time to fix and no where to go but up...shouldnt come as a shock to anyone who knows me what time it is today...

still have this parlay carried over

tb/cle un 7/cards rl .15 to .55

now the rest..

cards ff/ ff un 3.5 1 to 1.8

cards -155..3.1 to 2

pit/stl un 6.5 +105 .5 to .55


yes i am a homer and while yes during the reg season you can count on me not betting like 1, playoffs is a different animal as my disgusting homer roots do shine thru, that said i will be pounding pit in gm 3 so i guess im still less of a homer than most..

ok far as the ff under and gm under the biggest thing here is if memory serves me right guys have hated playing this weird matinee time in stl cause the shadows are a issue , prob why the ff un 3.5 is juiced to hell so parlaying that with cards ff, cant pass the +105 on the gm under as i fully expect waino to be on his gm and both teams to struggle scoring early, with these pens if we at 3 runs or less thru 5 feel confident that they wont hit 7 in a gm i think cards win 4-2...

cards have smashed burnett in his last 2 starts in stl and while the dude is very good im not sold on him being a big game pitcher which is exactly what waino is..both pitchers been on top of their gms the last month, being in stl is huge when you consider cards are 11-6 in waino's home starts and 10-2 during the day! on the other side pit is 5-11 in AJ's starts away from home including 2 ass whippings in stl and 5-7 during the day...waino's last 2 vs pit in stl he has went 14 innings and allowed 3 runs with 14 ks..really all we need out of him is another 7 strong then he can hand it off to the power arms in the pen and bottom line there is no reason not to expect just that as he has been on top of his gm the last month after going thru a little slump in the dog days...home/road splits huge adv cards, big gm warrior vs a talented but flaky AJ adv cards.. cards rake righties hitting .275 as a team and scoring 5.27 rpg, on the other hand pit hits .238 vs righties and scores less than 4 rpg...give me one of the best big gm pitchers who has regained his form vs a guy who has struggled on the road, in stl in particualr where we also get the better lineup and more experianced team..yes buccos have been hot but cards have been on fire down the sretch to secure home field throughout the nl playoffs and they wanted that honor for a reason as they are incredibly tough at home..card will fnd a way to gt 4 runs in this gm and with waino and our pen that should be more than enough.....

[Bagman5]

I'm with ya this time Banker, lets get this!

[2daBank]

I'm with ya this time Banker, lets get this!

i think wouldnt be a bad idea to take a little of them money you putting on cards and parlaying with ff under either...this is the matinee gm that cards have played in playoffs for several years and every time players throw a fit cause the shadows are very difficult so pitchers will have a huge edge..