[gibrilj]

I'm looking to become a more serious baseball gambler and fantasy gamer for the 2014 season so I'd like to start preparing early. Regarding projections by Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Think Factory, etc.; where can I find reviews/assessments and where/when could I learn about results for the 2013 season? BP, though highly reputable, is not perfect. They had a pessimistic outlook for Doug Fister this year and, though my opinion of him was better, I took their advice and made a bet against the Tigers in a recent game vs. the Red Sox. I lost my bet but I do realize that this alone, of course, doesn't discredit the quality of PECOTA. What is your opinion of this projection and other forecasts that you use?

[EXhoosier10]

there are many projection systems, and they all try to make blanket regressions/adjustments to a blanket of players based on past statistics. Since there are 750 players on opening day rosters and probably another 250 that see the field before August, there are going to be outliers that don't fit under the model's projections for a given season. That being said, no projection system can forsee a young hitter tweaking his swing to cover the hole that was the outside corner in previous seasons or the pitcher who adds a changeup to a 2 pitch repertoire and can now finally get opposite hand hitters out.

That being said, google "Tango projection analysis" and you should be able to find results of projection systems over the years. My advice... read, watch, listen, and research as much as you can as no stat or person is going to tell you everything you need to know.

[gibrilj]

Thanks for the tip, Tango helped set my opinion straight about PECOTA... I used to think it was the holy grail of projections but, I guess not.

But on baseball gambling... I am interested in wagering on prop bets for individual hitters (and especially the bets on whether or not a player will record at least one hit). I've organized some information over the summer and I feel like these types of bets can be exploited, therefore, can be profited on. I feel like trying to predict offensive player performance might be easier because you cut down on variables (namely, your bet's team's pitching).

[gibrilj]

*to predict INDIVIDUAL offensive player performance...