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Why is basebal so difficult to get an edge on?
I've been following baseball all year,but it seems to me like winning a 3 team parlay takes a miracle since most of the time the games don't make sense.Is there a good strategy to use on a daily basis that I'm unaware of and if so I would like to know.So any advice on this matter would help a great deal,thanks.
Look for + money in a coin toss even up game.Originally Posted by Death Valley
Don't bet on 3 team parlays, it's beyond me why somebody would make a wager that depends on multiple teams all winning to collect one singular payout.
Only time to bet a run line is when you like a road favorite, because the road favorite will always get a ninth inning at bat, a home favorite never gets a ninth inning at bat unless losing (or tied)
First five inning bets are good only if you like a starter that has a leaky pen behind him.
Not a good idea to fade streaks of three.
I made this mistake last night, and I would like to think I am good, don't bet the Cubs. lol
It's because baseball has A LOT of factors. Umpires, wind, feeling of pitchers etc.
In basketball if your main shooter is off his game, there are 4 others to pick up the slack. Baseball on the other hand? If you pitcher can't hit his spots or find the strikezone you are fkn screwed!
Each umpire has a different strikezone, each field has different dimension, climate, wind and all that stupid shit. A pitcher could have given up 10 runs in each of his last 5 starts and come right back and throw a perfect game in his 6th start after getting some good head and pussy.
There are A LOT more factors that I didn't mention, if i listed them all I would be here all night! Just way too many to try and come up with some special "Strategy" or "Edge"!
People bet parlays because of the odds. Bet $100 and win $700? Sure why not! It sucks to do it in baseball because of how study the games go, but I do it in most of the other sports and do EXCEPTIONALLY good!
Only in baseball parlays kick my ass and for that I've backed off of them!
Two teams are better
one dog and one fav
Sometmes two dogs
Depends what your current strategy is. I must say this month is a little rough on the 3 team parlays. but last few months mine hit rather well.
mostly i combine 2 moneyline favorites with a strong O/U play. Or a moneyline favorite, strong underdog and a strong O/U play.
Some nights i just skip the three and just play 2 team parlay Runline with a fav -1,5 and a strong underdog +1,5.
I believe baseball is harder because of the amount of factors that go into and the casual bettor can't be very successful. I think the regular sports guy just wants to do "sunday" research and pick Rogers and Brady to win. The QB's show up every sunday. Imagine if MLB played once a week and they got to use their same starter and do a week's worth of research for that game? It would make the favorites much more of favorites and vice-versa.
The good part about baseball also is the exact thing the makes it difficult, the amount of factors that go into it. For anyone who uses betting as an investment and science; like stocks, bonds, forex, etc- then baseball is the best sport to bet.
i agree, but in a sense youre wrong.. not everyone just bets on rodgers and brady every week. theres a reason theres spreads in football. just because a starter in football wins doesnt mean they covered the spread
I actually do a 3 team parlay almost everyday and have profited off it this year but I won't bet it unless I feel great about 3 plays. Usually paying 5 to 1 you hit it one out of 5 times you break even and when your hot you really make money doing this. I bet all 3 games and parlay them though not just betting the parlay and not the other games.
Ya I realize there are people who are hardcore in football too. I just think it's easier for a casual gambler. I was kind of taking the extremes for the sake of argument.
It's not as difficult as you think, just ask 80percentwinner. Lol
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This is already a classic!
It's not that difficult if you know how to read trends and bounceback factors appropriately.
Every fukking single game is a coin flip. But recently it seems like paying juice is the way to go. Just play faves.
This is good advice from all you guys,thanks.I'm curious where can you find who the umpire is behind home plate before the game starts?I'll be honest I haven't been paying attention to this all year,maybe it will help,it couldn't hurt.
Great advice only taking road team you like on the run line,makes sense,thanks.
On the one hand, baseball seems more difficult and more frustrating because of the dynamics of play. There's no clock and each team must retire three batters to end the inning. So unlike, say, betting a point total in basketball or football, where the game tends to establish a "pace" and you pretty much get a feel for whether that over/under is going to hit or not, you can be watching a 1-0 baseball game through 7 innings and counting your money because you picked U9.5, and then get blasted by an 11-run top of the 8th.
On the other hand, if you can withstand the inherent frustrations and settle in for the long season, baseball can actually give you a better edge than other sports if you are thoughtfully handicapping the games, because baseball is a series of one-on-one interactions rather than a mush of team dynamics. That is to say, there is a lot more intangible stuff related to the dynamics of team play that happens when you deal with football and basketball. You make like a quarterback/wide receiver combo, but in order for them to hook up effectively the offensive line needs to be working well, etc. In baseball the actions goes from pitcher to batter to fielder(s), and then begins anew on the next pitch. So keeping track of individual stats can be a more accurate predictor than in other sports.
Also, there is not the possibility of a complete reversal of fortune, like a football team effectively driving down the field and making you confident that you picked the right team, only to fumble on first and goal to be returned for a touchdown by the other team.
Last edited by Filmoz; 08-23-13 at 09:00 AM.
I mean, I suppose if you are confident that a home team is going to really stomp the away team, regardless of the loss of half an inning, then you might bet the runline. But I do agree, so many runline bets lost because the away team pulls within 1 run in the top of the ninth. It's the baseball equivalent of the meaningless touchdown or half-court shot that doesn't change the outcome of the game but kills the spread.
Baseball is the most profitable sport for me. Especially this point in the season
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