[stevenash]

Since June 1 (last 8 starts) Jose Fernandez has pitched 52.1 innings in which he has given up 6 earned runs, which is an 1.03 ERA, and has given up 29 hits while walking 19 which equates to 0.91 WH/IP ratio. In those last 8 starts he's struck out 51, which is pretty much one an inning.

Miami has gone 6 and 2 those last 8 times Fernandez started. St. Louis nipped him 3-2, and Arizona beat him 3-1. That's it.
The game he threw on July 1 against San Diego was a masterpiece. 8 shutout innings, 2 hits, 1 walk, 10 strike outs.

Overall, the kid is 5 and 5 with a 2.75 ERA, 1.08 WH/IP ratio (which translates into a .276 OBA against, which is outstanding)
103 K's in a 104 innings, well you do the math.

The kid has been flying under the radar all season, has electric stuff, and it looks like Vegas finally caught on.
I check out the early line movements.
Line opens up at Rockies (at home) -140, bam, shoots right up to Rockies -148 at 5Dimes, -152 at 3 in the morning, -156 an hour ago.
Rocks are getting hammered early, 16 cents is serious movement, and I know why.

Numbers geeks, like myself who do a little homework realize -140 is a soft number (or they think they do)
Thing is, as much as I love Jose Fernandez, and I do, he's a different animal away from Florida.
He wins as a slight fave, or a slight dog, but those 2 games I mentioned he lost he was +150 in the Card loss, and +135 in the Snake loss, both on the road. Pretty much the same situation here. (However he did beat the Mets in NYC as a +195 dog)

Marlins are 1-4 when the kid starts on the road as a +110 to +150 dog.
However the Marlins have been perfect against the NL West in their last four.

Fernandez is 2 and 5 on the road, a beast at home, but he's demonstated in his last two road starts he can pitch very well on the road.
He only yielded three runs on four hits against that Cardinal line up in St. Louis. He gave up 2 earned on 4 hits in 7.1 innings on the road in Phoenix in that loss.

He does walk about 3 a game, had a not very good April, better May, and since June 1 been pitching like a Cy Young candidate.

Has never faced the Rocks, so there is no history there, and I know full well Car-Go and Tulo, and Cuddyer are not easy outs, but I do subscribe the old school theory that good pitching will get good hitting out. Kid has that kind of stuff.

Chacin is having a nice season 9-4 3.50 ERA respectable 1.26 WH/IP, by no means a K artist. Pitched well in his last four out of five home games.
Not worthy of being a 60 cent favorite over Fernandez though.

I am taking a small shot on Fernandez, nothing big, because this is the Fish I am backing, but the better starter is on the Marlins, and at around +150 or so (let's see what this line does this afternoon before I send in my money) I like those odds.

This is not a play for the faint of heart, you can fade, or pass, it's all good.
Remember this fellas, the only guarantee in baseball is all teams will win at least 60 games and lose 60 games a season, if you know what I mean?

[JMobile]

[Smoke]

Nashy your write up sounds more favorable to the rockies

[stevenash]

Nashy your write up sounds more favorable to the rockies

No it really doesn't if you read it again.
I'm saying the kid has shown he can pitch well on the road in his last two, public jumped early and hard on the Rox (and we all know how that turns out) and JF is the better starter who has been pretty much light out the last two months. But i was pointing out the possible pit falls, but i like the +150 in this spot.

[Smoke]

No it really doesn't if you read it again.
I'm saying the kid has shown he can pitch well on the road in his last two, public jumped early and hard on the Rox (and we all know how that turns out) and JF is the better starter who has been pretty much light out the last two months. But i was pointing out the possible pit falls, but i like the +150 in this spot.

ok I see. No way I could back the fish here in a hitters ballpark though. Gl and dont go too large

[stevenash]

ok I see. No way I could back the fish here in a hitters ballpark though. Gl and dont go too large

I'm not going large, it's a play not for the faint of heart, but the kid has made me money 4 times in the past 2 months, and I like money, I am loyal to money.

[outtahere]

I will sit at home and watch honey boo boo before I ever wager a penny on the marlins

[joco]

already put a little on em...they won yesterday. i dont see any reason why they shouldnt win the series

[Smoke]

I'm not going large, it's a play not for the faint of heart, but the kid has made me money 4 times in the past 2 months, and I like money, I am loyal to money.

I agree nashy. the kid is a monster. Ive seen almost all his starts this year. The problem is the marlins inept offense. These clowns couldnt even put up a run against subpar brewers pitching

[Big Bear]

scary play man good luck.

IMO this is a bad spot for the rookie. Coors is a tough place to pitch.

[ApricotSinner32]

pawns only move a square in the game that they're used to

[jjgold]

Marlins have some decent young arms and capable of winning any game

The play has some value

[OhMyEli]

Under 9. I still don't think the Rockies are going to click offensively and the Marlins are a one man offense like so many other shitty NL teams.

[pavyracer]

Marlins have some decent young arms and capable of winning any game

The play has some value

They just scored their first runs last night after 38 innings without a run. And they still went scoreless in 7 innings last night. So they have scored 3 runs in their last 47 innings. It doesn't matter what the arms do. When you can't score runs you usually lose.

[OhMyEli]

They just scored their first runs last night after 38 innings without a run. And they still went scoreless in 7 innings last night. So they have scored 3 runs in their last 45 innings. It doesn't matter what the arms do. When you can't score runs you usually lose.

Unless they implemented some soccer rules, if you don't score you will always lose.

[BennyBigNuts]

Definitely value in the MArlins today.
Fernandez may even go yard tonight and help himself.
First 5 is the play.

[Down_Goes Bookie]

Yep... this sets up well for the Fish to steal one. Chacin is just OK... better on the road. Just hope the native Cuban Fernandez can deal with the mile-high atmosphere. And that somebody on the Marlins can get a hit or two.

[El Nino]

Hopped on the under 9.5 last night myself. At 9 now. Agree that it's Marlins or nothing for the side. Sherwood likes the Fish too.

[Big Bear]

Definitely value in the MArlins today.
Fernandez may even go yard tonight and help himself.
First 5 is the play.

wow surprised to see you like this play... will Hernandez have to worry about Cargo, Cuddeyer, and Tulo?

are you guys not concerened at all about Hernandez curve ball not breaking in the high altitude?

i mean coors field is a nightmare for many good pitchers...

[artyfudgepacker]

fuk it i went small on fish .u sold me nash

[Louisvillekid1]

Nash Great Write up,

If play loses I will troll ...

Oh and that font is hard to read

Lets get it!

[STAY STRONG]

in it to win it

[easyliving]

all over this as well. love the marlins in this spot

[Omaga]

Too many people on the hunch. You might need to protect your fishes on the under.

[OhMyEli]

Nash Great Write up,

If play loses I will troll ...

Oh and that font is hard to read

Lets get it!

We need more posts like this.

[NJN86]

On MIA +142 and U9 -105... Lets get it!

[gryfyn1]

Not sure where you see those number according to BBR his allowed 10ER over those8 games, still good for an excellent 1.72 ERA.

But over that time he has faced the Mets (24 in wOBA), Arz (21st), Min(19th), SDP(23), WSH(25) and STL(5). But in those two vs St Louis he's allowed 5 ER in 13 Innings.

The Rockies have a 344 wOBA at home this year, 3rd best.

[stevenash]

Not sure where you see those number according to BBR his allowed 10ER over those8 games, still good for an excellent 1.72 ERA.

I stand corrected, good catch.

REGULAR SEASON GAMES THROUGH JULY 22, 2013															YEAR TO DATE
DATE	OPPONENT	RESULT	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GB	FB	Pit	BF	GSc	Dec.	Rel.	ERA
Jul 13	vs WSH	W 2-1	6.0	4	1	1	0	3	4	9	8	103	24	61	-	-	2.75
Jul 7	@ STL	L 3-2	6.0	4	3	3	1	4	5	7	8	89	26	53	L(5-5)	-	2.83
Jul 1	vs SD	W 4-0	8.0	2	0	0	0	1	10	6	10	100	27	87	W(5-4)	-	2.72
Monthly Totals			20.0	10	4	4	1	8	19	22	26	292	77	--	1-1	0 sv	1.80
DATE	OPPONENT	RESULT	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GB	FB	Pit	BF	GSc	Dec.	Rel.	ERA
Jun 25	vs MIN	W 4-2	5.0	4	1	1	0	3	3	4	12	94	22	55	-	-	2.98
Jun 19	@ ARI	L 3-1	7.1	3	2	2	0	2	4	11	8	103	26	66	L(4-4)	-	3.05
Jun 14	vs STL	W 5-4	7.0	6	3	2	0	2	10	8	9	107	29	63	W(4-3)	-	3.11
Jun 8	@ NYM	W 2-1	6.0	3	1	1	0	3	7	4	10	97	24	66	-	-	3.17
Jun 1	vs NYM	W 8-1	7.0	3	0	0	0	1	8	6	9	87	24	78	W(3-3)	-	3.34
Monthly Totals			32.1	19	7	6	0	11	32	33	48	488	125	--	2-1	0 sv	1.67

[Gus Fring]

Goodluck man.


Water under the bridge.

[stevenash]

Goodluck man.


Water under the bridge.

OK, truce accepted

[CappinTerp]

Since June 1 (last 8 starts) Jose Fernandez has pitched 52.1 innings in which he has given up 6 earned runs, which is an 1.03 ERA, and has given up 29 hits while walking 19 which equates to 0.91 WH/IP ratio. In those last 8 starts he's struck out 51, which is pretty much one an inning.

Miami has gone 6 and 2 those last 8 times Fernandez started. St. Louis nipped him 3-2, and Arizona beat him 3-1. That's it.
The game he threw on July 1 against San Diego was a masterpiece. 8 shutout innings, 2 hits, 1 walk, 10 strike outs.

Overall, the kid is 5 and 5 with a 2.75 ERA, 1.08 WH/IP ratio (which translates into a .276 OBA against, which is outstanding)
103 K's in a 104 innings, well you do the math.

The kid has been flying under the radar all season, has electric stuff, and it looks like Vegas finally caught on.
I check out the early line movements.
Line opens up at Rockies (at home) -140, bam, shoots right up to Rockies -148 at 5Dimes, -152 at 3 in the morning, -156 an hour ago.
Rocks are getting hammered early, 16 cents is serious movement, and I know why.

Numbers geeks, like myself who do a little homework realize -140 is a soft number (or they think they do)
Thing is, as much as I love Jose Fernandez, and I do, he's a different animal away from Florida.
He wins as a slight fave, or a slight dog, but those 2 games I mentioned he lost he was +150 in the Card loss, and +135 in the Snake loss, both on the road. Pretty much the same situation here. (However he did beat the Mets in NYC as a +195 dog)

Marlins are 1-4 when the kid starts on the road as a +110 to +150 dog.
However the Marlins have been perfect against the NL West in their last four.

Fernandez is 2 and 5 on the road, a beast at home, but he's demonstated in his last two road starts he can pitch very well on the road.
He only yielded three runs on four hits against that Cardinal line up in St. Louis. He gave up 2 earned on 4 hits in 7.1 innings on the road in Phoenix in that loss.

He does walk about 3 a game, had a not very good April, better May, and since June 1 been pitching like a Cy Young candidate.

Has never faced the Rocks, so there is no history there, and I know full well Car-Go and Tulo, and Cuddyer are not easy outs, but I do subscribe the old school theory that good pitching will get good hitting out. Kid has that kind of stuff.

Chacin is having a nice season 9-4 3.50 ERA respectable 1.26 WH/IP, by no means a K artist. Pitched well in his last four out of five home games.
Not worthy of being a 60 cent favorite over Fernandez though.

I am taking a small shot on Fernandez, nothing big, because this is the Fish I am backing, but the better starter is on the Marlins, and at around +150 or so (let's see what this line does this afternoon before I send in my money) I like those odds.

This is not a play for the faint of heart, you can fade, or pass, it's all good.
Remember this fellas, the only guarantee in baseball is all teams will win at least 60 games and lose 60 games a season, if you know what I mean?

Nice write-up.!

[Vinnie Paz]

I'd prefer either ff under or marlins ff
That's about as much marlins as I can handle in 1 night

[FrozenMAN]

we don't hit sir...we're AWFUL!

[stevenash]

Chacin just made Stanton look stupid.
Miami can touch this guy though.
Let's see what Lo-Mo got?

[konck]

Yes we tied it Got a nice little parlay Marlins/Mets ...Mets may have enough runs for a pig pen save