[Willie Bee]

Bring your crystal balls, gang. Little test just for fun to see how you might react given certain situations with personnel.


Player A
Pitcher, just completed his eighth season in the bigs, will turn 31 in the first half of next season. He's coming off his best season ever, winning 19 in 32 starts, an all-star, getting votes for MVP and finishing high in Cy Young voting. Has about 1500 IP on his arm with a career ERA below 3.10. Has made 30+ starts for you in the last five seasons and there's no hint of arm trouble.

Sign him to a 2-3 year deal, trade him or release him?


Player B
Fairly high draft pick out of high school, pitcher, didn't spend a lot of time in the minors. Has had a couple of call-ups and three seasons that were pretty full in terms of being on the MLB roster. He's now in his mid-20s or so and coming off a 10-15 season with about average ERA. He's had flashes of brilliance, but is still struggling with his control. Pretty good strikeout rates, better than one per inning, but also walking about .67 per inning. Has allowed about 45 HR in his last 320 IP, WHIP is around 1.43 or so.

Sign him to a 2-3 year deal, trade him or release him?


Player C
Pitcher, mid-to-late 20s, has bounced between minors and majors and between the rotation and the bullpen. Has shown signs of success in both the starting and relief roles. Had an ERA below 3.00 in his first cup of coffee, followed that with a couple of seasons in the upper 3.00's in ERA primarily as a starter (20+ starts both seasons). Then he regressed a bit and has ERA's in the 4.00's and 5.00's the last three years. Has allowed 25 HR in his last 220 IP or so, WHIP in the 1.5-1.8 range the past three seasons. Won't turn 28 until midway through the next season.

Sign him to 2-3 year deal, trade him or release him?


Player D
Another pitcher drafted high, first few rounds. Took four years to get to the bigs. Just completed his third full season in the big at age 25 and has assumed the role of 'closer' on your team already. Throws pretty hard with pretty good control so far. Has a career ERA to now of about 2.50 and his ERA was below 2.00 this past season. Had some arm issues at one point in the minors but has not been bothered since. Been to the All-Star Game one time already.

Sign him to 2-3 year deal, trade him or release him?


Player E
Hard-throwin' pitcher, drafted out of high school though not that high. Has been a spot starter and sometimes reliever for your team. Just completed his fourth full season in the bigs in his mid-20s. His ERA has been average, at best, though it is below 4.00 at this stage in his career. Control issues, career WHIP in the 1.4 area. Has appeared in the postseason for your club with some brilliant returns.

Sign him to 2-3 year deal, trade him or release him?

[moses millsap]

A - Trade him unless his absence from your roster would greatly deplete your pitching.

B - Sign him to 2-3 year deal. Too much potential, maybe hire a new pitching coach.

C - Sounds like a freaking bum. Release him. The scouting reports have caught on.

D - Sign him to a 2-3 year deal.

E - If those solid postseason performances came recently, trade him. No mention of anything special in his arsenal coupled with the control problems don't give me the impression this kid has that high of a ceiling.

[Willie Bee]

We'll let these sit up here for a few days or so before I fill in the real names for the five pitchers.

[rolemand]

Sign them all

[Dead Money]

Sign A D E

If you can get something in return for B and C go for it, if not dump'em.

[Willie Bee]

Really hoping to suck Dan and lòóker into this one since they got me thinking about it with our Lidge discussion Come to think of it, Player D comes close to describing Lidge entering the 2006 season, doesn't it? But it's not.

[onlooker]

Sign A, B, and D.

Release C, he sounds terrible. That whip shows me he likes to walk people, showing he has control problems.

Trade E, if you could get something for him. Recent playoff success can maybe get something good in return.

[Willie Bee]

Player A = Steve Blass
Coming out of his 1972 season, during which he was 19-8 with a 2.49 ERA, Blass was regarded as one of the best hurlers in the NL. He had made 31+ starts five years running and had pretty much pitched the Pirates to the '71 World Series title the year before.

He was never the same. No real arm trouble, but just lost complete command of his pitches. In fact, when Rick Ankiel of the Cards suffered the same problem a couple of years back, you often heard people suggesting he was suffering from 'Steve Blass disease.'


Player B = Sandy Koufax
Through the 1960 season, Koufax was still a struggling pitcher. I listed him as being 10-15 in his previous season when he was really 8-13. But the other numbers were true. He also was not a high draft pick, since they didn't have the draft then. But he was a bonus baby, good enough to have been a high draft pick.

But early in the 1961 season, things started to click for Koufax and he went on arguably the greatest 6-year run by any pitcher ever.


Player C = Omar Olivares
The right-hander showed a lot of promise very early in his career. I was looking at his numbers through the '94 season for this little exercise, and from that point on, he was a below-average pitcher though he did win 15 games combined for the A's and Angels in 1999. The $4 million that Oakland and Pittsburgh each spent on him in 2000 and 2001 was a complete waste of money.


Player D = Lee Smith
By the end of the 1983 season, where I was cutting off for Smith in this one, 'Big Ugly' was already establishing himself as one of the game's premier closers. Smith's first four seasons are pretty close to what Brad Lidge did in his first four seasons.


Player E = Nolan Ryan
Through 1971, the point I was listing his career numbers, Ryan looked like he'd be nothing more than a journeyman fireballer. And the Mets, flush with pitching, decided to deal Ryan for some help in another area, packing The Express and three other players off to the Angels for one Jim Fregosi.

The rest is history. Given a chance to be a full-time starter for California, Ryan would garner MVP and Cy Young votes in his first three seasons with the Angels and strike out 300+ in five of his first six seasons with them.


So, if you said sign B, D and E and cut/trade A and C, go to the head of the class

[onlooker]

I guess I didnt do to bad.

I should of mentioned if you couldnt get anything for E, to hold on to him.

[Willie Bee]

Well, the Mets obviously thought they were getting something in Jim Fregosi, or else they wouldn't have given up all those players, including Nolan Ryan. There are a lot of people who point back at that trade and criticize the Mets. But at the time, the trade made sense for them. Ryan, other than his high heat, was really nothing special at that time. The Mets had pitching coming out of their ears, and needed a midfielder.

Those same people criticize the Astros for dealing away Kenny Lofton after the 1991 season. Again, those people simply don't look deep enough into the trade. Houston was moving Craig Biggio to 2B and needed a catcher. The 'Stros already had Steve Finley in CF, so Lofton was a logical player to move. And Eddie Taubensee, who Houston got, had decent potential as a backstop.

[moses millsap]

Thanks for the update WB. I'd still make the same decisions even though Nolan Ryan turned out to be one of the best. For me, it's more about process than results, so with all the information that was available in those blurbs, I'd still go the same exact route.

[imgv94]

A - Trade him unless his absence from your roster would greatly deplete your pitching.

B - Sign him to 2-3 year deal. Too much potential, maybe hire a new pitching coach.

C - Sounds like a freaking bum. Release him. The scouting reports have caught on.

D - Sign him to a 2-3 year deal.

E - If those solid postseason performances came recently, trade him. No mention of anything special in his arsenal coupled with the control problems don't give me the impression this kid has that high of a ceiling.

I would of asked OWNED for advice. So these would of been my answers as well..

[Willie Bee]

Yeah, Owned scored pretty well. Might have to keep that young man around for advice this season myself

A couple of buddies and I - - All of us think we know everything about baseball - - throw little tests out at each other often. I generally score in the 50%-60% range myself which proves the only thing I really should profess to knowing is that I don't know everything.

[imgv94]

Hey the best handicappers in the world are wrong 45% of the time..

The best baseball players are unsuccessful almost 70% of the time..

[rolemand]

Technically I think signing them all could still be considered correct, since there was no stipulation as to how much you would be paying for them. At the right price the other 2 could still have been a bargain.

[Willie Bee]

You might have been able to get something out of Olivares (Player C) at a certain price. But his salary more than doubled after the 1994 season and his ERA was almost seven.

But Blass (Player A)? Even if he paid you to play on your club, he'd have been a detriment. After the '72 season, Blass appeared in 24 games (18 starts) and recorded a 9.80 ERA while allowing well over two baserunners per inning.