1. 07-01-13 03:53 PM #1
    stevenash
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    A doggy just that might bark really loud tonight

    Brewers with Gallardo +180 over Nationals tonight has been talking to me all day (so to speak)

    Gallardo has more than good enough stuff to silence the overrated Nats bats.
    You don't think the National bats are overrated???

    Nats bats are:
    Almost dead last (28th ranked) in runs scored, 28th ranked in batting average, 29th ranked in on base percentange, and 20th ranked in slugging.

    Like I mentioned, Gallardo has very good stuff, his only problem is he's inconsistent.
    He was good in April, butt ugly in May, and pitching a lot better in June.
    Throw out the last start against the Cubbies, the three previous starts he had Gallardo allowed zero earned runs.
    22 consecutive innings of uneared run baseball up until his last start suggests to me he may have found his form.

    Nationals have trouble with Gallardo:

    WASHINGTON NATIONALS CAREER STATISTICS VS. YOVANI GALLARDO
    BATTER AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
    Roger Bernadina 5 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 .400 .500 .400 .900
    Ian Desmond 10 2 1 0 0 0 1 3 .200 .273 .300 .573
    Danny Espinosa 10 2 1 0 1 3 1 1 .200 .273 .600 .873
    Bryce Harper 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .167 .167 .167 .333
    Adam LaRoche 24 8 2 0 2 5 3 7 .333 .407 .667 1.074
    Stephen Lombardozzi 3 1 0 1 0 3 0 0 .333 .333 1.000 1.333
    Wilson Ramos 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
    Denard Span 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 .000 .000 .000 .000
    Kurt Suzuki 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000
    Chad Tracy 4 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000
    Jayson Werth 11 2 0 0 0 1 0 4 .182 .167 .182 .348
    Ryan Zimmerman 8 2 0 0 1 4 3 4 .250 .455 .625 1.080
    Totals 100 22 4 1 4 17 9 27 .220 .282 .400 .682

    Take Bernadina out of the equation who is not starting, that .220 average goes to about .212
    Bryce Harper is back, how sharp can he be tonight, he has missed 31 games, figure he needs about a week to get back to 100 percent game day ready.

    Nobody is saying Zimmerman is horse crap, he is not, I am not ignoring the 11-3 start, but -205 on Zimmy backed by a team that can't score much, whose opponent is very capable of matching him pitch for pitch is whack.
    And as long as ESPN and others keep sucking the Nationals and Davey Johnson, and everything else National roosters, the lines will always be inflated.

    Segura, the other Car-Go, A-Ram, and LuCroy 2-5 in the order can touch Zimmy up.

    Listen guys, I'm not here yelling this -330 game is the lock of the century bet your next new born kind on this, I am not even saying the Brewers are a stone cold lock.

    I'm not here to tell you to play, pass, or fade, I am saying this doggy just might both bark and bite tonight.

    I am saying +180 on Gallardo tonight, in this spot, is worth a .5 or 1* play.
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  2. 07-01-13 03:55 PM #2
    Louisvillekid1
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    I played the Under 3.5 FF for the max...

    So yeah, I'm also expecting a strong performance from 'Vani
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  3. 07-01-13 03:56 PM #3
    Big Bear
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    Nash this line is rediculous. I like it. Not sure how much...

    i will need to make sure
    Ryan braun
    Aramis Ramirez
    Gomez
    Weeks
    are all in da line-up
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  4. 07-01-13 03:57 PM #4
    pattymayo
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    -135 on the +1.5 is more than reasonable in what you would assume should be a pitchers duel
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  5. 07-01-13 04:01 PM #5
    Louisvillekid1
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    Braun is on 15 day dl
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  6. 07-01-13 04:05 PM #6
    Vinnie Paz
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    Yeah I as well took under ff, probably add a bit more on it. I agree though this is basically a pk until the shitpens get involved... milw with the better lineup actually
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  7. 07-01-13 04:06 PM #7
    Grizzlies918
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Nash this line is rediculous. I like it. Not sure how much...

    i will need to make sure
    Ryan braun
    Aramis Ramirez
    Gomez
    Weeks
    are all in da line-up
    Braun on DL
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  8. 07-01-13 04:08 PM #8
    Big Bear
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grizzlies918 View Post
    Braun on DL
    is that so they cant test him for roids?
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  9. 07-01-13 04:12 PM #9
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    is that so they cant test him for roids?
    they already know he juices, they dont seem to mind.
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  10. 07-01-13 04:15 PM #10
    Mikail
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    I am warming up to this. The more I look into this game the more Milwaukee is tempting a play.
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  11. 07-01-13 04:16 PM #11
    Smoke
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    Nashy noooooooooooooooooooooooooo
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  12. 07-01-13 04:21 PM #12
    ThingsFallApart
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grizzlies918 View Post
    Braun on DL
    He hasnt played in about 3 weeks now. You sure you guys know what youre talking about if you didn't know Braun has been out since early June?
    Nomination(s):
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  13. 07-01-13 04:34 PM #13
    ridims
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    wind blowing in or out? how is the weather looking like?

    thanks
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  14. 07-01-13 04:37 PM #14
    jinxpro1313
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Nash this line is rediculous. I like it. Not sure how much...

    i will need to make sure
    Ryan braun
    Aramis Ramirez
    Gomez
    Weeks
    are all in da line-up
    lol @ braun.
    & noone including the nats give a fuk about weeks in the lineup.

    i like the play in theory nash, but I can't put my hard earned money on this shitty team. Under if anything.

    gl guys
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  15. 07-01-13 04:46 PM #15
    Jago2008
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    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: stevenash
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  16. 07-01-13 04:50 PM #16
    GUMMO77
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    Another great writeup, Nasher.

    You got some




    GL, bud!
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  17. 07-01-13 04:52 PM #17
    El Nino
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    Gallardo too schizo for my liking. I don't see the Brewers getting 4 on Zimmerman.
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  18. 07-01-13 04:59 PM #18
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    Gallardo too schizo for my liking.
    If he wasn't so schizo, he wouldn't be +180.
    Like I said, it's not a lock, Gallardo brings his 'A' game, the payoff is 9:5
    If he doesn't, then oh well, it's not a play to go heavy on, it's a play that has a good chance of cashing nicely is what I am saying.
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  19. 07-01-13 05:00 PM #19
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bear View Post
    Nash this line is rediculous. I like it. Not sure how much...

    i will need to make sure
    Ryan braun
    Aramis Ramirez
    Gomez
    Weeks
    are all in da line-up
    Unreal you don't know that Braun has been on the DL? Big Bear, I feel like you are talking out of your ass 90% of the time. Aoki + Lucroy > Ramirez + Weeks
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  20. 07-01-13 05:03 PM #20
    SteelRain
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    took the brewers -1.5 +270

    either go big or go home
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  21. 07-01-13 05:03 PM #21
    StevenSuarez
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Nino View Post
    Unreal you don't know that Braun has been on the DL? Big Bear, I feel like you are talking out of your ass 90% of the time. Aoki + Lucroy > Ramirez + Weeks
    This. And don't forget about Segura.
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  22. 07-01-13 05:03 PM #22
    alamo
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    Quote Originally Posted by ridims View Post
    wind blowing in or out? how is the weather looking like?

    thanks

    Good question....anyone ?
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  23. 07-01-13 05:05 PM #23
    El Nino
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    If he wasn't so schizo, he wouldn't be +180.
    Like I said, it's not a lock, Gallardo brings his 'A' game, the payoff is 9:5
    If he doesn't, then oh well, it's not a play to go heavy on, it's a play that has a good chance of cashing nicely is what I am saying.
    True. Brewers lineup is incredibly weak 6-9. You have Harper coming back, all signs point to the Nats. Hope it cashes for you though. I wasn't expecting Zimermann to be -190 that is for sure.
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  24. 07-01-13 05:05 PM #24
    whtsox13
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    Well written Mr. Nash. After watching most of their 14 inning game yesterday I can't put any money on the Brewers right now, coldest team in MLB in my opinion. Good luck, good post!
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  25. 07-01-13 05:09 PM #25
    Mikail
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rod1010 View Post
    Anything can happen in a baseball game, there's no point in wasting your time capping games.. You're better off picking flipping a coin instead of wasting time with these useless stats.
    I definitely fee where your coming from but still we have to use something when it comes to capping games and statistics, trends etc. are the best we got but in the end it usually comes down to the ball bouncing a certain way or whether or not a player was out clubbing late the night before.
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  26. 07-01-13 05:11 PM #26
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rod1010 View Post
    Anything can happen in a baseball game, there's no point in wasting your time capping games.. You're better off picking flipping a coin instead of wasting time with these useless stats.
    What stats did I present are useless?
    Is football a unpredictable game where anything can happen?

    I spend 90 minutes to 2 hours a morning capping games, these so called useless stats you refer to made me (and others on these boards can attest to this) a crap load of money last year, and we are doing well again this first half.

    But thanks for your valued opinion.
    Drop by again any time
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  27. 07-01-13 05:11 PM #27
    chabooky386
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    Quote Originally Posted by SteelRain View Post
    took the brewers -1.5 +270

    either go big or go home
    go home...
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  28. 07-01-13 05:15 PM #28
    DeezusWINSTREAKT
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    Yea dude weeks is useless r u 4real. Aoki is important for sure. Same w others. I WANT WEEKS IN LINEUP Every time I bet vs Brewers.


    Nationals hit 1 hr a game for over a year recently, and scored 13 runs yesterday. I'm taking nationals.


    Right now is right now To me. I threw away stats from b4 these last weeks.
    Good luck!!!
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  29. 07-01-13 05:17 PM #29
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by DeezusWINSTREAKT View Post

    Nationals hit 1 hr a game for over a year recently

    ?????




    ?????
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  30. 07-01-13 05:24 PM #30
    Ghenghis Kahn
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    i can't see zimmermann losing at home.

    and it's just a weird line, begging you to take milwacky.

    not touching this game.
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  31. 07-01-13 05:25 PM #31
    konck
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    Welcome back Nasher I dont know if you noticed but when we get trolls in our handicaping thread we hit them with the ignore list its awesome just go to settings then edit list. Im gonna play Brewers/Minny in a little parlay I have a parlay with Jays/Marlins that im rooting for alreadyIgnore List

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  32. 07-01-13 05:26 PM #32
    Smutbucket
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    I just sprinkled some on milw since the card was so shitty I didnt want to look into any of the games. thanks nasher....

    what you think about First Five +.5 (+140) ...seems inviting to me also....even +1.5 at -110.....zimm always wins some low scoring games.....
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  33. 07-01-13 05:27 PM #33
    DeezusWINSTREAKT
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    I do agree gallardo has potential to turn their bats more quiet
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  34. 07-01-13 05:27 PM #34
    mikmik
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    Well hondo is on Washington. I'll go with brew plus runs
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  35. 07-01-13 05:32 PM #35
    meyer0416
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    n/m
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